NATO will be celebrating its 73rd anniversary this year. At the time of blowing out this new candle, on April 4, 2022, in what state will the oldest military alliance between Nations be found? Will she still be able to honor Truman’s word, on the eve of the signing of the treaty? “Big problems call for big decisions,” the American president had launched to his future European allies. A first answer could well be given this Friday. The foreign ministers of the transatlantic organization will indeed discuss a hot issue: the Russian threat to Ukraine. Recall that the Kremlin has sent more than 100,000 soldiers to the border and the Western chancelleries fear an imminent invasion.
“NATO is at a turning point in its history. The crisis with Ukraine illustrates the importance of its role, but also the very difficult equation with which it is confronted”, underlines Ian Lesser, vice-president of the German Marshall Fund.
Dario Ungiusto / L’Express
The centerpiece of this puzzle is called Vladimir Putin. The Russian president has proposed to the West two treaties providing for the prohibition of any enlargement of the Atlantic Alliance in what he considers to be his sphere of influence. In short, demilitarize your neighborhood to create a “buffer zone”. “In many ways, the situation is more dangerous than during the Cold War, because it is very difficult to understand Putin’s calculations,” warns Ian Lesser. The Russian demands are unacceptable for NATO, which is very attached to its “open door policy” vis-à-vis possible new members. But the allies know it, Putin is ready to push through to advance his pawns on the map of Europe. The occupation of the northern areas of Georgia in 2008 and the annexation, six years later, of Crimea, demonstrated this.
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How to prevent a new burst of brilliance? The Westerners’ dilemma is twofold: on the one hand, to keep their “open door” in Kiev without drawing the wrath of Russia – where Europeans also have economic interests -; on the other hand, to strengthen the shield of Ukraine, a partner state but not a member of the alliance.
“After the fall of the USSR, NATO had found with Moscow a modus vivendi by defining member states and partner states: Ukraine, Belarus, the countries of Central Asia, explains researcher Amélie Zima, NATO specialist. As for Russia, it would be a special partner as a former great political and nuclear power. “Until the beginning of the 2000s, this understanding worked, so that Moscow did not oppose integration into NATO countries formerly in its orbit, notably Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.
Finland tempted by NATO
The agreement was shattered in 2008 and prompted Georgia and Ukraine to want to join NATO, without success so far. This prospect does not generate much enthusiasm within the alliance. Moreover, these two occupied countries are not eligible. “NATO believes that a State which enters it must be pacified and have stable borders, to avoid importing any conflict into the alliance, recalls Amélie Zima. From this point of view, occupying territories is a well understood strategy on the part of the Kremlin. ”
To keep the pressure on the Kremlin, NATO, for its part, is strengthening its military cooperation with Ukraine. Several of its member states thus provide Kiev troops with equipment, intelligence and training. The United States, which delivered 30 Javelin-type anti-tank defense systems in October, could go further by providing anti-aircraft defense equipment. The question will be at the heart of allied discussions on January 7. The hour is serious, because the slightest gesture is scrutinized in Moscow. What to do ? Strengthen the Ukrainian defense now? The option is on the table, but it could serve as a pretext for Putin to attack. Do nothing? It would be an admission of weakness.
In fact, if Putin’s soldiers take action, the organization is under no obligation to intervene. “This will be a major test: is NATO still a relevant actor in guaranteeing European security?” Continues Amélie Zima.
For now, the alliance remains an insurance policy against the Russian bear for the continent. This is evidenced by recent statements by the Finnish authorities, who say they reserve the right to join NATO. “In truth, both Finland and Sweden are already practically operational members,” says analyst Ian Lesser. “Their defense strategy is integrated with that of NATO.” Finland, which shares a 1,340 kilometer border with Russia, remembers the episode of 2015, when 30,000 refugees from Asia and the Middle East landed at this border, pushed by the Kremlin. There is no doubt that the Russian threat in Ukraine worries Helsinki. “There is no room for a Russian sphere of influence, we are told at the Finnish Foreign Ministry. A further violation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine would require a firm response from the EU and like-minded partners. ”
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But Vladimir Putin remains upright in his boots. He also seized the opportunity of the revolt in Kazakhstan, another former Soviet satellite, to immediately send his paratroopers … on behalf of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (OTSC), a military alliance led by Moscow. A timely snub to NATO on the eve of its crisis meeting.
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