Russian Threats and NATO’s Response: Alliance Defense 2025

2024-01-16 20:10:00

Germany’s “Bild” newspaper (Bild) disclosed on the 15th confidential information from the German Ministry of Defense showing that Russian President Vladimir Putin will expand the war in Ukraine this spring, and then launch cyber attacks on the three small Baltic countries this summer and incite violence. By the end of the year, Putin Ding will take advantage of the political transition period after the US presidential election to invade the eastern flank members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). It is expected that a direct conflict with NATO will break out in May next year, which may trigger World War III.

This information refers to a scenario called “Alliance Defense 2025”, which is divided into seven phases. The first phase started in February this year, and Russia will mobilize an additional 200,000 soldiers. The second phase begins in April. Putin will order a “spring counteroffensive” against the Ukrainian army, and major progress is expected to be achieved by June. In the third phase, which falls in July, the Russian military may launch a “serious cyber attack” on the three small Baltic countries, claiming that Russian ethnic minorities living in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are under attack, thereby inciting violence.

The fourth phase will begin in September. As the conflict between the three small Baltic countries intensifies, Russia will conduct a large-scale military exercise called “Zapad 2024”, during which it will dispatch an additional 50,000 soldiers to Belarus and deploy medium-range missiles in “Kaliningrad” (Kaliningrad). Kaliningrad is located between Lithuania and Poland and is a Russian “exclave” (not connected to the mainland).

In December 2024, the plan enters the fifth phase. Putin will use the transition period after the US presidential election to claim that conflicts or riots have broken out on the border, resulting in many casualties, thereby detonating the Suwalki Gap corridor. ), and further took over this narrow strategic zone. The Suwalki Corridor is located on the border between Belarus and Poland, connecting Belarus and Kaliningrad.

By January 2025, Russia will conduct the sixth phase, accusing NATO of planning to overthrow Putin, and then launch the seventh phase from March to May, assembling about 70,000 troops in Belarus, and NATO will deploy about 30 troops on the east flank. Thousands of soldiers were deployed to deal with possible Russian attacks. Putin may back down at this stage, otherwise there will be a full-scale conflict with NATO troops and trigger World War III.

Regarding the “Illustrated” report, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Shakarova scoffed, describing it as “last year’s astrology chart.” Schatz, director of the think tank “NATO Strategic Communications Center of Excellence,” said that the documents obtained by “Illustrated” are NATO military exercise scenarios and are fictional scenarios for training. But Hodges, the former commander of U.S. forces in Europe, said that if Putin believes that NATO is defenseless, the above scenario is by no means alarmist.

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