The heavy sanctions imposed on the government of Vladimir Putin will lead to the rapid impoverishment of the Russian population, which will pay the high price for the war that its president has chosen to wage, according to experts.
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“Russia, which is not a very rich country and which does not have a lot of agricultural diversity, will quickly come to a problem of food security and there will also be a rapid impoverishment of the population, especially of the middle class. average,” said François Audet, director of the Canadian Observatory on Humanitarian Crises and Action (OCCAH).
For nearly three weeks, economic sanctions have been increasing against Russia and its oligarchs to bend Vladimir Putin and try to stop the war he started in Ukraine on February 24.
These measures include closing airspace to Russian aircraft, suspending visas, controlling or banning exports and imports, and freezing and seizing the assets of more than 700 Russian oligarchs.
For Mr. Audet, these sanctions, in a way, extract Russia from globalization and cut it off from its supply chains.
“We saw how the ruble [la monnaie russe] is collapsing. Inflation, which is estimated here as being draconian, is nothing compared to what is emerging in Russia,” he says.
Indeed, in Canada, annual food inflation reached 6.5% in January 2022, while, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, it reached 11% in Russia at the end of the year. same period.
purchasing power
Result: the purchasing power of the Russians is likely to decrease sharply because of the conflict.
For Arthur Silve, professor of economics at Laval University, it is clear that the situation in Russia is dramatic and that the country is experiencing its most serious economic crisis.
“It is to be expected that in the next few weeks, in the next few months, there will be completely empty shelves in the markets in Russia. So goods that are no longer available, ”he warns.
For his part, Florian Mayneris, professor in the Department of Economics at ESG-UQAM, agrees.
“Even if China can partly substitute for agri-food products, the European Union still represented nearly 30% of Russian imports,” he says.
oil and gas
However, the impoverishment of Russians will not happen overnight; it will be done gradually, analyzes Mr. Mayneris.
“The measures, as they are currently taken, are likely to greatly destabilize the Russian economy, but they do not prevent it from functioning or at least do not prevent Vladimir Putin from leading his war effort”, explains the one who is also a member of the Interuniversity Center for Research in Analysis of Organizations (CIRANO).
Every day, Russia continues to receive millions of dollars from its oil and gas exports, which are the equivalent of more than 10% of its gross domestic product, Mayneris points out.
For him, it is obvious that as long as Russia continues its trade in hydrocarbons, Vladimir Putin will be able to continue waging his war.
– With Héloïse Archambault, The Journal of Montreal