‘SCBS’ expects the lowest Thai stocks in Q3, recommends 6 investment trends amid future risks
on August 17 Mr. Sukit Udomsirikul, Managing Director, Research Division, The Siam Commercial Securities Public Company Limited (SCBS) Said at a special seminar on investment decoding rising interest rates In the topic of “Looking at Investment Trends … Going Through the Crisis Over the Crisis” that the economic recovery in 2022 has benefited from opening the country and during the past 2 years, people have quite a lot of savings. due to higher savings proportion And those money was spent thereby causing the economy to expand. Looking at the next phase, these two factors are reduced from the problem of inflation continues to be severe. In addition, investment, if choosing to invest in assets such as the stock market, various funds, which investors can choose to invest in various companies. that can fight the economic conditions that arise in the midst of risky situations or choose to invest in safer assets.
As for the stock market view in the second half of 2022, it is expected that the third quarter will be the period when the stock market has the lowest chance. If you look at the Thai stock index that has dropped to 1,500 points but is now back to 1,600 points, if the forecast is true Therefore, it is possible that July will be the month that has passed the lowest point. The Fed raised interest rates by 0.5% in September. and inflation was at 8.5%, oil prices were less than $100 a barrel. It could be the month that was the lowest point, or the third quarter could be the bottom. The risk is still present during this 1-2 months. The story of inflation Conditions for raising interest rates will pass an intense period. Meanwhile, the Thai business sector has benefited from opening a country with an increasing number of tourists. By evaluating the SET Index target at the end of this year at 1,650 points, moving around 1,500-1,750 points, which is not expected to fall below 1,500 points because there have been tests of various crises
Meanwhile, the economy in 2023 for developed countries has entered a sharp slowdown period. Global interest rates have been stable and there is no chance of a reduction if the economy slows more than expected. Inflation has slowed to a lower level. but higher than in the past Inflation is likely to continue to rise, but may not be as high as 2022. Capital flows into emerging markets after the economy has recovered and the US dollar depreciates. Meanwhile, energy prices have become more stable after the economic slowdown and Europe is better managed. Including policy risks and international conflicts are important variables that may change the investment climate for the worse.
6 interesting investment trends: 1. Stocks with bargaining power such as McDonald, Starbuck, P&G, Tesla, Kimberly-Clark 2. Clean energy and EVs (EVs) such as automakers. Electrification with both car production and batteries TSLA, BYD company with advanced battery production efficiency CATL, LG Chem, original car company that quickly transforms itself into electric cars Volkswagan, Ford focus on negative energy and more dogen Solar Energy Vestas, Siemen, Air, Liquide 3. Chinese stock markets such as companies benefiting from government support policies in Dual Circulation, Clean Energy recovery after Reopening is currently at 20% (US EU 80-90%). ) of before the Covid period
4. Indonesian stock markets, such as electric vehicle and battery supply chain investments, automotive and nickel mining sectors, highlight stocks with high domestic consumption that benefit from a growing population and middle class. Retail, Food 5.ESG is to invest in sustainable companies such as companies with good development in the technology image. And benefit from investments in clean energy Enel, Mercedes and 6. Technology stocks such as companies that make a lot of money in electric cars, data centers and cloud computing. Upstream tech companies recover faster than downstream. TSMC, ASML avoids companies that make PCs. And smartphones that slow down quickly are at risk of downgrading estimates.
“When buying shares or investing in companies Prospects and profits are important. but reiterated that every The investment trend is not a buy-out investment. But it has to be purchased on a business-by-business and company-by-business basis,” said Sukit.
Mr Sukit said As for investment allocation methods divided into 4 economic cycles (Boom, Slowdown, Recession, Recovery) are not the same. Each country’s economic cycle is different as well. Now the economic cycle in Europe and the US Is walking into recession (Recession), but for the Thai economic cycle is in the recovery phase (Recovery), which today most investors are worried that the world economy will be in recession (Recession), so the current portfolio will invest in debt instruments. long term and started investing in growth stocks in the recovery The most likely portfolio is to invest in the stock market. High Yield Private Bonds Value stocks and pricing power stocks
However, investment strategy Must assess the risk that investors can take more or less risk. with the expectation of a moderate return Because the risk is still high. 1. Hold some cash for liquidity and create opportunities 2. Choose quality assets that 3. Invest in instruments that generate consistent income and have dividends or interest 5. Emphasis on businesses with bargaining power and 6. Companies with strong financial status The aforementioned picture is an investment that is completed at a low price and with low risk, it will make investors safe amid the ongoing risks in the future.
