For those who are curious, here is my team with associated beliefs:
1) I see this Giro as a route where the better sprinters have as many days on which they can finish in the top 10 as the better AK riders. It wouldn’t even surprise me if those sprinters end up doing that more often.
2) Normally the more expensive AK men compensate for this by the fact that they have more extras in terms of possible jersey points. It is important that you set them up. There are relatively few opportunities for this in the first 2 weeks. The top 5 AK was relatively unpredictable after 1 and 2. The time trial in 7 does make it more predictable, but then it can be turned upside down again in 8 and 10, which makes it difficult to predict who will be the jersey points in the stages for the rest of the week. It is also difficult to say in the final settlement who will be important and who will fail. Raking jersey points from the top 5 AK is therefore difficult.
3) To benefit fully from point 1, you must have sprinters who can consistently sprint ahead of the pack in this extremely wide field. Budget sprinters are fun in a normal giro because simply ‘sprinting with intention’ quickly brings you to p10 with a chance of more. This year is different, and therefore a risk.
4) Point 2 actually means that the predictable extras of the AK men are even more important. Think of a good ITT, JK final ranking or being able to bring something extra in the 3rd week (because they are invariably beastly there and/or because they have an attacking character. AK riders with a good chance of top 10 for a very low price are also extra interesting. You can then invest the money saved elsewhere to get those ‘extras’ via a different route, without sacrificing too much on the final bill, especially all these guests.
Knowing what type of riders I wanted, I started clicking in the sprint. I quickly came to the conclusion that if I wanted to play on the better sprinters, I would (budgetally) play riders after sprinter 6 where I could not guarantee that on average(!) they would score more than 15-20 points per sprint. This could be possible in an individual sprint, but not on average over all sprints.
There was a good chance that after stage 2 at least 1 of the 3 JK candidates would be in the top 5 AK, which could provide a nice sprint filler (via AK + JK sprint points), Pog itself is a great filler. These 2 riders fill spots 8 and 9, leaving spot 7. Over 21 stages, I thought it would be more advantageous to field a UAE rider in 7th place instead of investing in a sprinter who gets a maximum of 15-20 points per stage. That extra UAE rider can effectively be fielded in 21(!) stages, so that in addition to money on that 7th sprinter, you can also save money in a few other stages. The 24 team points from the final settlement also compensates for a sprint stage. This could only be beneficial, with only minimal risk if the jersey was not with Pog after stage 2.
At this point it was certain that my sprint team would consist of 6 good sprinters + 1 cheap UAE lackey + Pog + Filler. The question then was whether Molano was going to be one of those 6 sprinters, or whether I would be better off going for a ‘real’ sprinter. Molano’s usefulness in stages with a high chance of winning Pog (1,2,8,10 and both ITTs) was the deciding factor. I certainly wanted to be able to deploy 2 UAE servants there. 10 + 8 + ? is enough potential in places 8 and 9 to save money on a climber. Actually a bit the same as the reasons why I prefer to take a UAE servant in spot number 7 in the sprint stages.
To ensure that the advantage of both UAE servants could be sufficiently exploited outside the sprints, you must of course also ensure that you can field them. So you can’t fill your team with all AK players. However, this works out well on this course and with the difficult task of choosing the right men. You also have to save money somewhere to buy those expensive sprinters. The next conclusion was that the core of my climbing team should consist of ‘only’ 4 AK toppers + 2 cheap riders with a good chance of top 12 + 2 UAE servants + 1 rider to be drafted at will. With 20 places to fill and the budget saved here and there, I decided to take a slightly broader position in the ‘cheap riders with a good chance of making it to the top 12’ category so that I had a better chance of making the right choice there, for a minimal investment. If more than 2 ultimately prove to be the right option, then I have room for that in position 9, or instead of 1 of the 2 uae servants.
The above then yielded the following names:
Regular sprinters:
Merlier, Kooij, Milan, Pithie, Molano, Danny
UAE knecht:
Oliveira
AK toppers with a chance of ‘extras’:
Pog, Thomas, Tiberi, Arensman
Relatively cheap guys with a chance of top 12 via several routes (also a chance of flights 3rd week and BK):
Lopez, Rubio, APP, Storer
A total of 15 places available. I wanted to fill the rest with guys who could fill specific roles at specific times, but who wouldn’t mind if you didn’t field them very often. These were:
Sheffield (ITT and there is always a surprising name on the INEOS train that suddenly does well)
Vansevenant (Stage 1 + 2 and hill stages. Long had Velasco here, but margin and potential extras from Mauri are greater)
Schachmann (Stage 1, both ITTs and transition stages. Under the radar the man in form, was ill in the AGR)
Lipowitz (Not necessarily super confident, but could be good. Expected high pick rate. If you can, you just want to have him at hand. It’s not as if Hirt, Carr or the Italians are more certain assets)
Vendrame (along as an attacker, but against my better judgment I can also be played in the sprint stages if I suddenly come up short and otherwise have to play a zero. Also has a leading role in the Tunnelvisionaires Giro song).
Thanks for reading my diary. Good luck everyone this Giro!