The global containership fleet is set to expand by almost 50% by 2030, with vessel scrapping unlikely to prevent a severe supply imbalance, The Loadstar reported.
According to the latest Sea-Intelligence report, the total capacity is projected to rise from nearly 34m teu at present to 40m teu by Q2 2028, reaching 50m teu before the end of the third quarter of 2030. The analyst expects average annual fleet growth of 10% between 2027 and 2030 based on existing orders.
Over this timeframe, quarterly handovers are predicted to average 1m teu, reaching a high point of 1.8m teu in the third quarter of 2028. This compares with average quarterly deliveries of 560,000 teu between 2023 and 2026.
Data from Sea-Intelligence showed that the active orderbook for ships due for handover up to March 2031 reached 15.7m teu, representing 46.4% of the current fleet. Xeneta’s latest assessment placed it slightly lower at 15.47m teu, a difference of around 230,000 teu.
The ordering surge began in the third quarter of 2024, with new contracts averaging 1.5m teu every quarter. Sea-Intelligence stated that even an unprecedented demolition programme would do little to offset the incoming capacity.
During the industry’s prior supply glut in 2016, operators broke up 670,000 teu, which accounted for only 3.3% of the total fleet. Executing that same volume of ship recycling annually from 2027 through 2030 would neutralize under 17% of planned handovers, maintaining a net yearly fleet expansion rate of 8.5%.
Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, told The Loadstar that only 600,000 teu had been demolished since 2019. Based on Xeneta’s calculations, a mere 3.4m teu of the active fleet has reached or exceeded 21.8 years of age, which was the typical scrapping age between 2016 and 2019.
Containerships are built to last a life at sea, so they are mainly demolished for commercial and operational reasons rather than wear and tear. Mr Sand
Mr. Sand explained that demolition could increase if a large-scale return to Red Sea transits released capacity currently absorbed by longer voyages. However, the age and size of vessels available for demolition complicate the prospect of meaningful fleet renewal.
Speaking to The Loadstar, Braemar analyst Jonathan Roach pointed out that 1,944 units have reached or exceeded 20 years of age, contrasting with an orderbook of 1,903 new ships. He observed that whereas those two quantities appear closely matched statistically, the aging tonnage is heavily skewed toward smaller sub-panamax vessels, whereas the new construction pipeline focuses heavily on mega-ships.
Alphaliner’s VP of liner strategy, Jan Tiedemann, informed The Loadstar that vessel demolition will likely pick up across 2027 and 2028, though not enough to counterbalance the massive influx of new tonnage. He pointed out multiple elements likely to boost space requirements—such as extended voyages, reduced sailing speeds, and higher demand in developing economies—alongside the necessity to replace larger ships constructed between 2000 and 2010.
