Sharp rise in the price at the pump to be expected in the event of a conflict in Ukraine

The price at the pump could very quickly exceed $2/L in Quebec if Russia carries out its threat to invade Ukraine, while the cost of gasoline continues to climb due to international tension.

“This tension is coming at about the worst possible time, and the repercussions could be felt as far away as Quebec,” says Carol Montreuil, vice-president of the Canadian Fuels Association, Eastern Canada.

As the planet deconfines, creating a growing demand for oil, suppliers are unable to meet their daily production increase target, he underlines.

In Quebec, this situation has been reflected in a dizzying rise in gas prices for several weeks. Yesterday, the price at the pump was $1.669/L in the Capitale-Nationale, while it was at $1.689/L in Montreal, records.

High pressure

But now Russia, the world’s third largest oil producer, is preparing to invade Ukraine any day now. According to the reputable German media The mirrorthe attack could occur as early as Wednesday, according to US intelligence sources.

“If that were the case, we could easily see an increase of 20 to 30 cents and even reach $2 per liter of gasoline in Quebec shortly after,” warns the president of the organization Canadians for Affodable Energy, Dan McTeague.

The pressure is already being felt on the price of a barrel of oil, which has reached a peak in seven years. On Friday, a barrel of Brent North Sea was selling for $94.44 and that of West Texas Intermediate for $93.10.

Gas price analyst for decades, Mr. McTeague already predicts that the price at the pump will exceed $ 1.70 in the next few hours in Montreal.

But the sanctions imposed on both sides of the conflict, if Russia were to invade Ukraine, could “explode” this increase.

Counter the rise

At the same time last year, the average liter of gasoline sold for $1.211 in Quebec City and $1.225 in metropolitan France. A full tank of gas for a car that can hold 50L is therefore now around $84, about $23 more than in February 2021.

And even if the conflict in Ukraine were not to end in the end, we expect another jump in prices by May.

“How to counter the rise? Apart from reducing your speed – which will save a little gas – it might be a good time to think about getting an electric vehicle,” comments Nicolas Ryan, spokesperson for CAA-Quebec, which does not foresee a significant decline in the medium term.