Hussein Shobokshi wrote in Asharq Al-Awsat:
If the great events of history and their great transformations have taught us anything, it is that these events and these transformations always begin with simple signs and signs and then gradually grow until they become what they are.
Today, the old European continent woke up to the results of the French presidential elections that were won by the current President Emmanuel Macron, but the most important news is that 42 percent of the French voted for Marine Le Pen, a politician with racist inclinations against Islam and immigrants, extremist from a racist national perspective, apologetics for President Putin in his policies. 42 percent of the French vote in a country that prides itself on being a platform for freedom, liberal liberties, equality, justice and fraternity in the Western system in politics and society, and has one of the most respected democratic systems in the world… All these values did not prevent it from voting for the most extremist elements in the political system in France today. We cannot look at these results with comfort and say that France has defeated extremism. Something new is growing on the surface in the heart of Europe: extremism and hateful racism. France has a big and dangerous problem. This is one of the most important lessons, signs and signs that it is necessary and necessary to look into in depth, because what affects France will undoubtedly affect the European continent… There is a resounding message issued by the French voter that will be heard throughout the European continent.
The developments taking place today in the world may have their expected and expected effects on the various economic systems, as it is necessary to contemplate them and realize their dangerous upcoming dimensions.
The Arab world is required to seriously monitor the challenges and threats it faces, due to the exacerbation of the current global crisis resulting from the repercussions of the “Covid-19” pandemic and the current war between Russia and Ukraine.
Experts divide the threats facing the Arab world today into three categories. Short-term challenges, challenges from restrictive financial measures, and the final threat is global challenges. In the short term, the challenge of food security takes the first place. There is also the need to monitor imported and output inflation, specifically because of the massive rise in food prices, in addition to the enormous cost of living that can be felt in all fields. This challenge specifically concerns countries that import their food and oil, which will lead to an expansion The gap between the poor and the rich in it, and the result of it will of course be that the rates of restoring the economy to its normal state will be turbulent and will take not a little time.
As for the threats resulting from financial restrictions and their policies, the first of them will be the high cost of debt, and this will of course mainly affect countries with lower credit ratings, and the cost of unused debts will rise with it, and this specifically occurs in countries that relied mainly on tourism and travel or the real estate development sector, as well as high The interest cost in countries whose currency is linked to the US dollar, although this means that there is a great opportunity for the GCC countries in particular whose currencies will remain strong, enhancing their purchasing power due to the strength of the dollar in this important period.
As for global challenges, it is very necessary to monitor the re-spread of “Covid-19” cases with new, stronger and more ferocious mutations, as well as the importance of monitoring the policy of China, which insists that the result of its policy of dealing with the “Covid” pandemic is zeroing in the number of infections, which practically means a continuous closure of its cities This will affect production and its acceleration, which will, in one way or another, affect oil consumption and thus the world’s economic ability to rise from the effects of the pandemic and return to normal and economic life.
Among the important dangers that will have repercussions is the continuation of the war and its entry into the third month and may continue to the end of the year, as British Prime Minister Boris Johnson recently warned of him, and this war between Ukraine and Russia lasted more than expected, and therefore it could drag the world with it. Scary economic stagnation and very high inflation.
With regard to very high inflation, there are clear indications that we are facing a coming stage in which inflation rates will witness another increase that will reflect on the world’s ability to exchange, invest and spend, and painfully hinder the movement of trade.
And there are countries such as Lebanon, Libya, Iraq and Sudan, and these factors will negatively affect them and their civil peace, as the news shows us successively, and the convulsive and continuous global geopolitical situation with an increase in sharp language and continuous movement between China and the United States in different locations around the world and sharp statements against each other cannot be overlooked. some.
We live now in the era of the butterfly world, and its impact par excellence shows us that what happens in a remote part of the world will affect the rest of the world in one way or another, sooner or later. Therefore, the signs and signs that carry hidden meanings appear to us in their different forms before our eyes.