The U.S. chip policy toward China is swaying, and related stocks are like undirected winds. First, the U.S. banned AI chips, and Nvidia and AMD in the U.S. fell, but suddenly they extended the chip restrictions. Enterprises invested in Chinese technology companies, including semiconductors and electric vehicles, and SMIC rebounded after a slight dip.
U.S. President Biden has made another heavy hand on Chinese technology. AP picture
China’s chip independent research and development process has recently seen favorable news. President Xi Jinping emphasized when presiding over the central deepening meeting on September 6, to give full play to China’s obvious advantages of “being able to concentrate on major things”, strengthen the national strategic scientific and technological strength, and greatly improve the systematic ability of scientific and technological research. . Some people use the metaphor of the big steelmaking of Mao Zedong’s time, but this is nondescript. The country has invested 350 billion yuan in the establishment of a semiconductor “big fund” to become a chip power, with the goal of achieving 70% self-sufficiency in semiconductors by 2025. Although some companies cheat and defraud chip subsidies, is that comparable to “blast furnace steelmaking”? China’s current semiconductor strategy is similar to Japan’s in the 1970s. The Ministry of International Trade and Industry gathered the strength of all major companies to conduct a large-scale siege attack on Silicon Valley.
It is said that the Silicon Valley of the United States invented chip semiconductors, and then Japan caught up. The United States chose the “technology-led” route, which is to try to advance in the high-end direction. Use or imitate U.S. technology. Japanese technology cannot be compared with “invention mad” Silicon Valley companies, such as Intel and AMD. Japan chooses the competitive strategy of “technological lag”. The weakness of Silicon Valley semiconductor companies is “there is no future”. They aim to launch new technology products as soon as possible, and the production yield is so-so, so the cost and selling price remain high.
Japan is even more engaged in research and development with the whole country. One memory development department occupies one building. At the same time, different engineers are on different floors, each developing different generations of memory. For example, a certain floor develops 16K DRAM, and the upper floor The main focus is 64K, and the development of 256K will start at the next level. Japan’s “technological lag” is becoming more and more sluggish. When it is not far from its Silicon Valley rival, Japan can win steadily. What’s the solution? Don’t forget that Japan’s quality control has an absolute advantage. In 1980, an internal report of Intel disclosed that after testing the supply quality of different companies in the United States and Japan by Hewlett-Packard, a major semiconductor user, the ratio of defective products in the United States was on average 6 times higher than that in Japan! American technology Xiaofei is useless, which manufacturer will use it?
The United States later used tyrannical means such as intellectual property rights and trade sanctions to force Japanese semiconductors to abolish their martial arts skills. The story will not be unfolded here. The main point I want to talk about is that the United States has not changed the idea of ”technology-led” for decades, such as the use of Chinese semiconductors. In terms of competition, the focus of the White House and Silicon Valley’s ban on China is high-end chips with a process of 7nm and above. China once thought about competing with the United States for high technology. However, it was found that the low-end mature chips are the market leaders, and China is striving to develop in this field. , also like Japan’s “human sea tactics” advantage of exerting the power of the whole country back then,
Industry insiders said: “The application range of low-end chips is very wide, from 5G communication, Internet of Things, smart home appliances, electric vehicles and other fields, the market of chips above 28nm accounts for more than 70%. As long as domestic chips have won the middle and low-end chips In the chip market, China can get rid of the confinement of the United States.” Conversely, if the low-end and mid-end chips of the United States are lost to China, where will Silicon Valley semiconductor companies get the funds to invest in new-generation products? Do you want to ask Biden again?
The US chip semiconductor technology is superior, but its weakness is also “there is no future”. The current situation in the United States is like the lyrics of “Celestial Silkworm Transformation”: “On the hillside alone, the height is not high”, yes, the United States can go there 2nm or even the high end of 1nm, so what? Technological ban will not kill China, but it will kill Silicon Valley. The next sentence everyone knows to sing, let’s sing to Biden together: “Fate has no way before sneering hints.” “The Heavenly Silkworm Gong.