Somalia’s fragile federal government collapsed into violence last week after a dispute between the president and the speaker of parliament escalated into armed clashes in Mogadishu, raising immediate fears of a return to the factional warfare that plagued the country for decades. The fighting, which left at least seven people dead and displaced hundreds, centered on the presidential palace and surrounding areas, where security forces loyal to President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and those aligned with Speaker of Parliament Yasin Haji Mohamud exchanged fire for over 12 hours before a ceasefire brokered by regional mediators was announced. The United Nations Political Office for Somalia (UNPOS) confirmed the violence in a statement Friday, calling it a “serious setback” to the country’s fragile peace process.
At the heart of the crisis was a constitutional dispute over the formation of a new government. President Mohamud, who took office in May 2022 after winning a contentious election, had accused Speaker Mohamud of obstructing the selection of cabinet ministers—a process required under Somalia’s provisional constitution before the new parliament can be sworn in. The speaker, a former prime minister and a key figure in the semi-autonomous Puntland region, rejected the president’s demands, accusing him of overreach. “The president is trying to impose a government by decree,” Speaker Mohamud told reporters in Garowe on Thursday, adding that his office had received credible threats from armed groups exploiting the chaos.
Why the clash matters: Somalia’s stability hinges on a power-sharing agreement that has held since 2017, when federal and regional leaders brokered a deal to rotate the presidency among the country’s four main clans. The current standoff risks unraveling that framework, with analysts warning it could embolden Al-Shabaab, the Islamist militant group that controls swaths of rural Somalia and has already capitalized on past political vacuums. “This is a direct threat to the entire federal project,” said Abdi Aynte, a Mogadishu-based security analyst, citing Al-Shabaab’s recent surge in attacks on government checkpoints in the capital.
The violence erupted on Tuesday after President Mohamud’s office announced the formation of a caretaker government without parliamentary approval, a move the speaker’s allies condemned as unconstitutional. Within hours, armed men—later identified by witnesses as a mix of national security forces and regional militias—seized control of key government buildings, including the parliament complex. The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) deployed peacekeepers to buffer the presidential palace, but did not intervene directly in the fighting. “Our mandate is to protect civilians, not to take sides in internal disputes,” ATMIS spokesperson Major General Abdi Gelle told reporters, adding that the mission’s withdrawal deadline of December 2024 remains unchanged.
What happens next: Regional mediators, including Ethiopia’s prime minister Abiy Ahmed and Kenya’s president William Ruto, have urged both sides to return to negotiations, but no formal talks have been scheduled. The African Union’s Peace and Security Council is expected to convene an emergency session Monday to discuss Somalia’s crisis, though diplomats say divisions among member states—some of whom support President Mohamud, others Speaker Mohamud—could delay a unified response. In the meantime, Al-Shabaab has seized on the chaos, launching coordinated attacks on three government-controlled districts Friday, killing at least 15 and wounding 42, according to the Somali Ministry of Interior.
The immediate humanitarian fallout is severe. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) reported that over 3,000 families—nearly 15,000 people—have been displaced by the fighting, with many sheltering in makeshift camps near the airport. “We’re seeing a repeat of 2012 levels of displacement,” said IOM Somalia chief Abdirahman Mohamed, referring to the last major collapse of central authority before the current federal government was established. Water and food supplies in affected areas have been cut off, and the World Health Organization warned of a “rapidly deteriorating” health situation, with measles outbreaks reported in three districts.
How this compares to past crises: The current standoff mirrors the 2019 dispute between President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed (“Farmajo”) and his prime minister, Hassan Ali Khaire, which led to a 10-month political deadlock and a surge in Al-Shabaab attacks. Unlike then, however, this conflict has involved direct armed confrontation between state institutions—a development that has alarmed donors. The European Union, Somalia’s largest aid contributor, froze €15 million in development funds Friday, citing “gross violations of constitutional processes.” The U.S. State Department issued a statement calling on both sides to “prioritize the Somali people’s welfare over partisan interests,” but stopped short of threatening sanctions.
The constitutional impasse also threatens Somalia’s eligibility for debt relief under the International Monetary Fund’s Catastrophic Debt Distress framework, which requires proof of “peaceful political transitions.” A senior IMF official in Nairobi told World Today News that the fund’s mission to Mogadishu, scheduled for next month, had been postponed indefinitely. “Without stability, we cannot assess macroeconomic reforms,” the official said, noting that Somalia’s public debt-to-GDP ratio has ballooned to 120% since 2020.
For now, the standoff shows no signs of resolution. President Mohamud’s office has rejected calls for a power-sharing deal, while Speaker Mohamud’s allies in Puntland have vowed to block any government formation until the parliament is fully operational. The African Union’s peacekeepers remain on standby, but their withdrawal in December—already delayed twice—could leave a power vacuum if the dispute is not resolved. In the capital, residents barricaded their homes Friday as gunfire echoed through Mogadishu’s streets, a sound not heard since 2012.
