Space conquest: should we take all the risks to go to the Moon (and Mars)?

Exactly 55 years ago, on January 27, 1967, the conquest of space found itself confronted for the first time with the worst of crises: the loss of a crew of astronauts in its spaceship. They hadn’t left Earth yet, and technically they weren’t even on a mission, since it was a rehearsal. Prisoners of the Apollo 1 capsule in flames, Gus Grissom, Ed White and Roger Chaffee perished alive before anyone could help them.

Chance of the calendar: nineteen years later, on January 28, 1986, the Challenger shuttle was dislocated by the explosion of its external tank after seventy-three seconds of flight. Its crew of seven astronauts – including schoolteacher Christa McAuliffe – first survived the explosion, before being killed when its pressurized cabin hit the surface of the ocean, remaining intact after a 20 kilometer drop.

As if that were not enough, seventeen years later, on February 1, 2003, the space shuttle Columbia disintegrated 60 kilometers above Texas, during its re-entry into the atmosphere at the end of a two-day mission. weeks. It had seven astronauts on board, including the first Israeli in space, Ilan Ramon. The anniversaries of the three greatest dramas in American space history follow each other in less than five calendar days. These days, NASA therefore has a series of celebrations and the period is conducive to reflection on risk management.

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The shortcomings of the administration pointed out

In the midst of the Cold War, the deaths of three American heroes in the race for the Moon with the Soviet Union shook the Apollo program, but did not interrupt it. In the storytelling of the American lunar epic, their sacrifice is the ultimate test which, once overcome, opens the way to the climax constituted by the acceleration of the lunar landing from Apollo 8 to Apollo 11. In 1970, Apollo 13 will remind us that the danger is still present, but will consecrate the triumph of the human spirit with a happy conclusion, the three crewmen returning to Earth safe and sound.

Devoid of any epic aura in a post-Vietnam America, the Challenger disaster pinpointed the shortcomings of a sprawling administration with a dilution of responsibility, whose right hand didn’t know what the left hand was doing. The launch, outside the authorized temperature limits, was imposed by political and economic pressure, because the shuttle was also a commercial launcher at that time. We had to keep up the pace, with unsuitable architecture. Afterwards, NASA finally set up a supposedly independent safety, reliability and quality office. The commission of inquiry into the Columbia accident, in an America still reeling from September 11, demonstrated that this independence did not exist.

While Apollo 1 had bolstered the Apollo program, Challenger ended the prospect of routine access to space and the shuttle’s commercial career. Columbia precipitated its withdrawal, effective in 2011.

The Moon and Mars in sight

Nineteen years later, commercial access to space is a reality and two giant launchers are supposedly ready to fly, with the Moon (and Mars) in their sights. Above all, for some modern actors, such as Elon Musk, risk aversion is seen as a flaw. The boss of SpaceX has often complained about the checks imposed by government entities before entrusting him with strategic missions, in particular by NASA to ensure the security of the commercial Crew Dragon capsule before it can transport its astronauts. The billionaire did not hesitate to take the US Air Force to court to speed up the certification of its launchers. With success.

Today, Elon Musk is pawing the way awaiting a green light from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for his Starship shuttle and his Super Heavy launcher. Problem: the report on the environmental impact of these activities – and in particular the risks they represent – has been widely criticized for its shortcomings. The FAA has postponed its decision until February 28, and may well order a federal investigation or impose changes. That would push back the first flight by months, if not years.

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Meanwhile, at Cape Canaveral, NASA’s first SLS lunar launcher, after major delays related in particular to quality and reliability checks, will be transferred to its launch pad in February for launch ( uninhabited) in March or April. Safely, hopefully.