Will a giant asteroid crash into Earth in 2046? The risk is real according to NASA.
A large pebble the size of a handball court may hit the Earth in just over 20 years. For the moment, this is not certain but the NASA closely follows the trajectory of a 50 meter asteroid that could end up somewhere on our planet on February 14, 2046.
Barely discovered, the object baptized 2023 DW would have “little chance” to reach us but is still taken very seriously by astronomers. The asteroid has indeed been ranked at the top of the “at risk list” of the European Space Agency. It was estimated at level 1 of the so-called Turin scale, which categorizes the risk of impacts from asteroids and comets.
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Where could he land?
NASA’s first calculations assess the chances of encounters with the Terre to 1 in 625, but this may still change: “Often, when new objects are discovered, it takes a few weeks of data to reduce uncertainties and more accurately predict their orbit for years to come.”, explains the American space agency. For now, 2023 DW is orbiting the sun for 271 days at a speed of 89,000 km/h and is flying more than 17.9 million kilometers from Earth, details the NASA.
But where could this asteroid land if it were to swoop down on us? An Italian astronomer, Piero Sicoli, has published initial estimates. According to him, the asteroid has a 1 in 400 chance of falling on the trajectory drawn in the tweet below.
#2023DW. With just 3 days of arc, I found about 1 in 400 chance of impact on Feb. 14, 2046 (JPL 1/770). Surely this possibility will soon be ruled out, however, as an exercise, I calculated where the asteroid might fall if this possibility occurred. pic.twitter.com/ldlSYJMvMz
PS (@Piero_Sicoli) March 2, 2023
Orbit analysts will continue to monitor asteroid 2023 DW and update predictions as more data comes in. Explore this asteroid and others: https://t.co/vXY8HDjycJ (2/2)
— NASA Asteroid Watch (@AsteroidWatch) March 7, 2023