An abandoned SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket upper stage is on a collision course to strike the Moon at 8,690 km/h on Wednesday. Weighing approximately four tonnes, the derelict hardware will impact the lunar northern hemisphere around 6:35 GMT, creating an artificial crater and offering researchers a chance to study orbital debris dynamics.
The Trajectory of a Derelict Falcon 9 Stage
The upper stage originated from a mission launched in January 2025 that carried two lunar landers. While the primary booster successfully returned to Earth, the upper stage remained in space after completing its payload delivery. Despite precautions taken by the commercial aerospace provider, a complex interaction of solar activity and gravitational forces altered its orbital parameters.
“A mixture of solar activity and gravitational forces ultimately placed it on a trajectory in direction of the Lune,” explained Julianna Scheiman, a SpaceX representative, during a NASA media briefing on Monday.
By Wednesday morning, this orbital decay culminates in a high-velocity impact. Spacecraft operators and regulatory agencies calculate that the empty stage weighs roughly four tonnes, assuming all onboard propellant was depleted.
Scientific Opportunities and Observation Challenges
Astronomers and planetary scientists are preparing to track the event. The high-speed collision is expected to eject a sunlit plume of dust, fractured rock, and assorted debris from the lunar surface. Researchers hope to analyze this material to better understand hyper-velocity impacts on airless bodies.
“It will perhaps be possible for people with a telescope to observe it,” noted Benjamin Fernando of the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico, who serves as the lead author on a recent study examining the impending impact. “We don’t yet know how bright this will be, which is one of the reasons why we want to study this event.”
Because artificial impacts with the Moon are uncommon—unlike the frequent, natural collisions caused by meteoroids—astronomers are relying on both professional observatories and amateur stargazers to record data. The event echoes historical precedents, such as NASA’s deliberate rocket body impacts during the Apollo program in the 1970s to gather seismic data.
Assessing Planetary Security and Orbital Debris Risks
As commercial and government space agencies look toward establishing a sustainable human presence on the Moon, understanding the lifecycle of spent hardware becomes critical.
Federal agencies have confirmed that the crash poses no threat to our planet. “There is no danger to Earth,” stated NASA spokesperson Jimi Russell in an official statement provided to AFP. Russell added that the agency will continue tracking the booster for training purposes and subsequently image the impact crater for scientific analysis.
Wednesday’s collision provides an empirical baseline for evaluating how artificial space debris interacts with planetary bodies.
