On August 5, 2026, at 8:35 AM Paris time, a Falcon 9 rocket upper stage from a 2025 SpaceX launch weighing some kilos will strike the Moon at 8 700 km/h. Independent orbital analysts and astronomy networks are tracking the trajectory to capture impact data, with viewing potential highest in South America and western North America.
Tracking the Trajectory of Object 2025-010D
The incoming projectile is the upper stage of a Falcon 9 rocket that launched on January 15, 2025, successfully propelling two lunar landers—the Blue Ghost mission 1 and the ispace Resilience—toward the Moon. While the primary mission succeeded, the upper stage failed to execute a terminal Earth atmospheric reentry. Instead, it became locked into a highly elliptical orbit.
Independent analyst Bill Gray, creator of the Project Pluto object-tracking software, calculated the precise collision trajectory. Astrodynamics trackers like @s2a_systems have monitored the tumbling 12-meter-long, 4-meter-wide hollow metallic shell as it moves toward its intersection with the lunar surface near the eastern limb of the Moon’s visible face.
Calculating Visibility and Ground-Based Observation Windows
Observers hoping to catch a glimpse of the event face distinct geographical and illumination constraints. According to orbital mechanics models, the impact will release energy roughly equivalent to the detonation of 3 tons of TNT. This force will excavate a crater slightly under 30 meters in diameter and roughly 5 meters deep, hurling a high-altitude dust plume several kilometers above the lunar surface.
Directly viewing the initial kinetic flash from Earth is statistically unlikely because the strike occurs on the sunlit face of the Moon. However, ground-based observatories positioned along the eastern edge of the lunar disk might detect the rising ejecta cloud against the dark background of space. Terrestrial visibility heavily favors specific longitudes:
- South America
- Low-to-mid latitudes of North America
- Regions with dark-sky conditions during the morning hours of August 5, 2026
- Western North American locations offering higher lunar elevation angles
Observers in metropolitan France and Western Europe face a more challenging viewing geometry due to daylight and local lunar positioning at the exact moment of impact. The Moon will be near its last quarter phase with an approximate 56 percent illumination rate.
Scientific Value and Precedent for Artificial Lunar Impacts
This event marks a rare opportunity for planetary scientists, mirroring intentional and accidental impacts of the past. In 1970, the upper stages of Apollo 13 through 17 missions targeted the Moon to generate seismic waves, calibrating instruments left behind by earlier Apollo crews. NASA repeated a controlled impact strategy in 2009 with the LCROSS mission to search for water ice signatures within permanently shadowed craters.
Researchers plan to leverage the August 2026 impact to analyze regolith dynamics, validate predictive impact point algorithms, and measure ejecta plume dispersal patterns. These datasets directly inform safety models for future crewed lunar bases and validate radar tracking methodologies used to monitor orbital debris across cislunar space.
