2023-10-08 09:51:02
The state parliaments are being re-elected in the German states of Bavaria and Hesse. The votes on Sunday are also seen as a political mood test in Germany in general at the halfway point of the Bundestag’s legislative period. More than a fifth of the German population lives in both countries together.
The polling stations opened at 8 a.m. and will remain open until 6 p.m. In the most recent surveys before the elections, the Union parties with their prime ministers in both countries – the CSU with Markus Söder in Bavaria and the CDU with Boris Rhein in Hesse – were clearly ahead.
The parties in the traffic light coalition (SPD/Greens/FDP) in the federal government, on the other hand, have to fear slight losses. This could cause further unrest in the alliance, which, according to surveys, currently does not have a majority at the federal level. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD is once again threatened with a single-digit result in Bavaria; in Hesse, with Interior Minister Nancy Faeser as the top candidate, it is lagging behind. It is unclear for the FDP in both countries whether it will make it back into the state parliament.
In Bavaria, the CSU was unchallenged in the lead in all surveys until recently, but at 36 to 37 percent it did not go beyond its historically poor election result from 2018 (37.2 percent). After the leaflet affair involving their boss Hubert Aiwanger, the Free Voters initially saw a significant increase, up to 17 percent. Most recently, the survey values settled at around 15 percent. In 2018 they got 11.6 percent.
Söder and Aiwanger have always stated that they want to continue their coalition, which has existed since 2018, even after the election. Unlike five years ago, Söder has ruled out an alliance with the Greens. The CSU’s performance is also likely to be discussed with a view to the question of the Union’s next candidacy for chancellor – although Söder has repeatedly emphasized that he has no ambitions of his own.
It is also eagerly awaited to see who will take second place behind the CSU: the Greens, the Free Voters or perhaps the AfD. The SPD had recently failed to get above 9 percent in surveys. The FDP must therefore tremble as to whether it will reach the five percent mark.
An alliance of the CDU and the Greens has governed Hesse since 2014. According to the latest surveys, a continuation of the black-green coalition seems possible, but a coalition between the CDU and SPD after the election is also mathematically and politically conceivable.
The CDU with Prime Minister Rhein was recently clearly ahead of the SPD with Faeser and the Greens, both of which got 16 to 17 percent, in the surveys with 31 to 32 percent. With Tarek Al-Wazir, the Greens are running their own candidate for prime minister for the first time. The AfD also has a chance of becoming the second strongest force. But no other party wants to form an alliance with her. It could be close to entering the state parliament for FDP, Left and Free voters. Before the election, SPD top candidate Faeser made it clear that she would only return to state politics from Berlin as Prime Minister.
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