2023-11-01 08:38:00
The two former Soviet republics of Central Asia are far from being France’s main trading partners, yet Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Kazakhstan and then to Uzbekistan is of a strong strategic nature. The President of the Republic, who arrived in the Kazakh capital Astana this Wednesday morning, aims to strengthen his presence in the region against the backdrop of a race for influence between Russians, Chinese and Europeans. This involves in particular a consolidation of economic cooperation in several areas: raw materials, energy, aeronautics and pharmaceuticals among others.
Emmanuel Macron is due to meet in the morning with his counterpart Kassym-Jomart Tokaïev and sign contracts in the pharmaceutical and aeronautics sectors in particular, according to AFP. The two heads of state will then open a Franco-Kazakh business forum together. Emmanuel Macron will then meet students at the university, before flying to neighboring Uzbekistan where he will spend the day on Thursday. France is therefore determined to leave its political and economic mark on the region.
This desire for economic strengthening is illustrated by the presence of a large delegation alongside the Head of State in several strategic areas, including Luc Rémont, CEO of EDF, Sabrina Soussan, CEO of Suez and Philippe Knoche, Managing Director of Orano.
Strategic supplies
The presence of the latter is far from being anecdotal. A uranium specialist, Orano wants to increase its presence in Kazakhstan, where it already operates a mine. Critical metals, essential to the energy transition and of which the region is rich, thus feature prominently in discussions with the two countries. Kazakhstan (45.2%) is the world’s leading producer of natural uranium according to the Euratom supply agency (ESA) and, along with Uzbekistan, it is among the main suppliers of uranium to France, up to of 40% of its imports, and to the European Union. Hence the need to secure this source of supply, particularly in view of the recent coup d’état in Niger.
In the same way, the question of titanium could also come back into the discussions. Kazakhstan is one of the only producers of very high quality titanium sponges and semi-products, behind Japan and Russia. However, the invasion of Ukraine has seriously disrupted the supply of this essential material for aeronautics, with Western manufacturers finding it difficult to free themselves from Russian production.
France is also looking for local outlets, particularly in nuclear power. She is in the running for the project of the first nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan, the construction of which must be decided by referendum by the end of the year.
Bilateral trade amounted to 5.3 billion euros in 2022, mainly in hydrocarbons. France is thus the fifth foreign investor in Kazakhstan, ahead of China, due to the establishment of the TotalEnergies oil group, which jointly exploits the important Kachagan deposit in the Caspian Sea.
Struggle for influence against China, Turkey and Hungary
By going to the region despite a busy international agenda, Emmanuel Macron intends “support sovereignty and the desire to diversify partnerships expressed by the two countries”, notes the Elysée. It concretely aims to strengthen bilateral economic ties, cooperation on major climate issues as well as “diplomacy of influence” of France towards young people.
In this regard, Paris is highlighting its long-standing interest in the region where François Mitterrand was the first European head of state to visit – to Kazakhstan in 1993 and to Uzbekistan in 1994 – after the breakup of the Soviet Union. Since then, President Nicolas Sarkozy has also visited Astana in 2009, as did François Hollande in 2014.
In Uzbekistan, the most populous country in Central Asia with some 35 million inhabitants and long reclusive, Emmanuel Macron will make up for almost 30 years of absence, no French president having visited there since 1994. The Uzbek president, Chavkat Mirzioyev has already come to France twice, in 2018 and 2022, with more than 6 billion euros in contracts up for grabs during his second visit.
Central Asia, long a Russian precinct, is ardently courted by the great powers at a time when Russia is monopolized by its military offensive in Ukraine. In this game of influences, neighboring China, with its major “New Silk Roads” infrastructure project, has taken a head start. But Europe and Turkey are also advancing their pawns. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will also follow in the footsteps of Emmanuel Macron on Thursday and Friday in Astana.
Building on this enthusiasm, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are banking on economic openness and balanced diplomacy to assert themselves, even if Moscow remains an essential partner.
Authoritarian regimes
Beyond their economic openness, the two republics remain authoritarian regimes where the repression of demonstrations is often violent, despite a stated desire for political liberalization. In 2022, riots were bloodily repressed, leaving 238 dead in Kazakhstan and 21 in Uzbekistan respectively.
Although Uzbek President Shavkat Mirzioyev certainly put an end in 2016 to the two decades of isolation imposed by his predecessor, the feared Islam Karimov, to whom he was close, he still faces no challenge.
The French presidency, for its part, prefers to emphasize the “dynamics of reform” in this country and ensures that the rule of law will also be discussed during the visit to Samarkand, an Uzbek architectural jewel.
(With AFP)
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