2023-12-12 00:34:36
The final COP28 negotiations continue without interruption during the night from Monday to Tuesday around the compromise proposed by the Emirati president, widely rejected by the countries for his lack of ambition on the exit from fossil fuels.
This is the last COP where we will have the chance to keep 1.5°C alive [objectif le plus ambitieux de l’Accord de Paris].
A new text, the result of these nocturnal exchanges on the 13th day of the summit, is hoped for Tuesday morning, according to delegates and a source close to the presidency. But COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber’s goal of securing a historic agreement at 11 a.m., the anniversary of the Paris Agreement, now seems out of reach for most delegates.
This is not a problem for the European delegation, we have time and we are prepared to stay a little longer, assured the head of German diplomacy Annalena Baerbock.
Unconvincing text
Monday evening, Sultan Al Jaber, boss of the Emirati oil and gas company and president of COP28, proposed a draft agreement which gives countries complete freedom to choose their way of reducing fossil fuels.
The 21-page text therefore no longer sets any common objective for exiting oil, gas and coal, although envisaged in previous versions, which would constitute a historic decision if it were adopted by consensus of the 194 countries, plus the Union. European, having ratified the Paris Agreement.
Fossil fuels are responsible for around two thirds of greenhouse gas emissions, the cause of global warming and its attendant disasters (droughts, heatwaves, floods). Warming since the industrial era could even reach 1.5°C by the start of the 2030s if humanity does not reduce its emissions by 43% by then compared to 2019.
The Republic of the Marshall Islands has not come here to sign its death warrant, thundered its Minister of Natural Resources, John Silk, after the publication of the text.
The European Union considers the project insufficient and the United States calls for it to be substantially strengthened.
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An activist during a demonstration at the United Nations climate change conference (COP28) in Dubai
Photo : Archyde.com / THAIER AL-SUDANI
NGOs and experts denounce a project listing non-binding options, a shopping list or an à la carte menu putting the development of solar, wind, nuclear, hydrogen or that of capture techniques on the same footing of carbon.
In their infancy, these are favored by the fossil industry and the producing countries, Saudi Arabia in the lead, but will have only a weak impact in the current crucial decade.
There are elements that are not acceptable as they stand, declared the French Minister of Energy Transition, Agnès Pannier-Runacher.
I am surprised at the lack of ambition, confides a Western negotiator, judging the text uninspired from start to finish, poorly designed, repetitive, incoherent.
But, as a source at the Emirati presidency of COP28 indicated, this is part of the game of negotiations: It is an opening movement, we will have to build from that.
We have made progress, but we still have a lot to do, admitted Sultan Al Jaber, who is seeking the point of balance between Saudi Arabia and its allies, on the one hand, and the hundred or so countries in favor of exit from fossil fuels, on the other hand.
Eyes are also on China and the United States, the world’s top two emitters of greenhouse gases (41% between them).
In November, in the Sunnylands declaration, the two powers agreed to avoid talking about an exit from fossil fuels, but emphasized the role of renewable energies to gradually replace them.
China, which plays a fundamental role in rallying the developing world towards a final consensus, wants to stick to the Sunnylands formula, while the United States wants to go further, analyzes Li Shuo of the Asia think tank Society.
Progress on energy objectives is also suspended from parallel progress in other negotiated texts, in particular on adaptation to the consequences of global warming and on financial aid to developing countries, which are key to convincing the South to accept an agreement.
I urge all countries to remain focused on 1.5°C and to ensure that the ambition for this decade is high enough, reacted on X Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency.
For Alden Meyer, of the E3G think tank, we are in a big crisis: the next few days will tell whether we have a viable international climate regime or not.
COP28 is now on the verge of total failure, wrote on X Al Gore, former US vice-president and climate activist.
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