HEC Montréal’s annual report on Quebec’s energy consumption is clear: the transportation sector is slow to reduce its dependence on hydrocarbons. And in the face of too slow electrification of the sector, more effective solutions should be considered if Quebec really wants to achieve climate objectives whose deadline is fast approaching.
Among them, one of the two authors of the HEC Montréal report, State of energy in Quebec 2023, advances the idea of redirecting assistance for the purchase of $7,000 for each electric vehicle sold in the province towards other forms of reducing pollution and automobile congestion such as public transit or carpooling.
“Imagine if we gave $7,000 to each person who decides to carpool or take the bus,” says Pierre-Olivier Pineau, holder of the Chair in Energy Sector Management at HEC Montréal and co-author of the report with his colleague Johanne Whitmore. “That would be financial assistance. These systems would need it. »
Such a formula would also be socially more equitable, adds the Montreal professor. The current aid goes mainly to the most affluent Quebecers, those who already have the means to afford an electric vehicle, the average cost of which is more than $50,000, according to industry data. “In addition, this program helps these consumers to worsen traffic congestion. »
Quebec in the climate fog
In its Plan for a Green Economy 2030, launched in November 2020, the Quebec government admits it straight away: it has no idea how it will go about fulfilling its promise by 2030 at the latest. reduce the province’s greenhouse gas emissions by 37.5% below 1990 levels. He advances solutions for about half of this objective. As for the rest: mystery.
The automotive industry is currently not helping much. The leaders of Toyota Canada and Honda Canada, two of the largest manufacturers and sellers of cars and SUVs in the country, described as unrealistic the electric shift imposed by 2035 by Ottawa and certain provinces, including Quebec. They are saying more and more openly that they are unlikely to comply.
Preferring to see the glass half full, Pierre-Olivier Pineau thinks that the opportunity is good to reorient the provincial strategy for transportation taking into account these constraints.
“I don’t think that the climate fight in Quebec is lost in advance,” he says. We can adopt solutions and technologies that already exist and are not expensive, such as telecommuting, shared cars and carpooling. »
Citing the companies Communauto and Netlift, the HEC Montréal professor points out that the technology already exists and that it could yield immediate benefits, especially in the current macroeconomic context.
“With inflation and the high cost of living, consumers no doubt want to limit their spending. These technologies could help. »
More new vehicles than inhabitants
Diversifying the assistance from Quebec that goes to the purchase of electric vehicles to include active transportation, carpooling and public transit would indeed make sense, notes the president of Electric Mobility Canada and former Quebec Minister of the Environment. , Daniel Breton.
“Obviously it has to be part of the solution,” he said. A subsidy for carpooling and car-sharing, which allows people to leave their cars at home, would cover part of the needs around major cities. »
Daniel Breton believes all the same that it is not necessary for all that to lift the foot on the electric accelerator. “If we want to decarbonize transportation throughout Quebec, if we forget electric cars, we forget the more remote regions where they are part of the solution. »
But reducing the province’s vehicle fleet must become a priority. Daniel Breton quotes Statistics Canada: between 1990 and 2020, the population of Quebec increased by 22%. Over the same period, Quebec roads received 61% more personal vehicles and 194% more freight trucks.
In addition to its climate targets, Quebec promised in 2015 that it would reduce its consumption of petroleum products by 40% below 2013 levels and no later than 2030. Before COVID, Quebec’s energy consumption trend was on the rise. This trend picked up again after the pandemic.
At this rate, it will be impossible to reduce Quebec’s energy consumption by 40% in 2030. HEC Montréal experts come to the same conclusion. They calculate that to reverse the trend and achieve the targets, in addition to a sustained increase in fuel prices, a new event would be needed whose impact on the province’s economy would be similar to that of COVID-19. .
And even then, without a major change in direction, it is “uncertain” that Quebec will manage to reduce its energy consumption, says the report.