“A river uprooted, gain of fishermen”, is a phrase that suits the management of prices and stocks by companies in recent days. The new restrictions that affect imports together with the strong financial uncertainty and the rise in the parallel prices of the dollar unleashed, once again, a wave of speculative moves by price makers. This occurs in a market context where various sectors continue to upping saleswhich also guarantees excesses, fueled and even price abuses.
Importers cut back on delivery or do so at exorbitant prices, to cover themselves against a replacement cost that is more uncertain than weeks ago. This is mounted on a very accelerated inflationary dynamic, where it is increasingly difficult to have relative price references. Thus, the end of June and the increases that are coming in regulated prices define that July will also be complicated.
Among the increases planned for July is the first section of the rate increase for the water service provided by Aysa, of 32 percent, which is completed in October. In the AMBA it will also impact the rise of around 40 percent in the ticket of collective. On the other hand, in July there will be a new increase by the prepaid of 4 percent. Meanwhile, the Buenos Aires government approved an increase in the fees of the private schools of 15 percent.
Disorder
Page 12 spoke with various leading businessmen and economists about the business climate of recent days, marked by a increased uncertainty about the government’s ability to obtain financing in pesos and to accumulate international reserves in accordance with what was signed with the IMF. Two more pieces of information that strengthen the already known effects of this type of episode: the new wave of uncertainty appears in a context of very high inflation that had been erasing price references and in a context of still good consumption performance.
On the side of massive consume, supermarket sources assure that the dynamics of uploads in recent days is not very different from what had been happening. However, there are specific situations of importers that reduced deliveries. In the case of food, is an item that depends relatively little on imported inputs, although there is use of packaging and laminated products and also sometimes certain final items are brought in to complete the local offer. In hygiene and cleanliness, there is a greater weight of imported inputs. Restrictions on imports blur the price at which the company replenishes those stocks.
From the metallurgical industry they explain that “some importers of inputs are passing prices to the blue dollar, because they say that they will not have another way of accessing foreign currency other than through the MEP. The volume of the additional 15 percent of imports approved by the Central Bank to deliver foreign currency is not enough to supply the size of the market today compared to last year. Therefore, there will be shortages and prices will rise because we are all going to speculate on when we will be able to buy the dollars and at what price.” The paper and cardboard sector also warned of supply problems.
Uncertainty
“I believe that the uncertainty is given not so much by the parallel dollar but by the restrictions on imports, which remove the replacement cost reference from companies. This leads them to overprice so as not to lose working capital,” explains Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina, director of macroeconomic analysis at the consulting firm Equilibra. Mario Galizzi, president of Apyme Santa Fe, indicates that “there are items such as food and supplies of construction that are highly concentrated, and this context is favorable to abuses of a dominant position”.
For the economist Rodrigo Alvarez, “imports have been growing at too high a rate and the sectors that were able to import and that now do not know if they will be able to continue doing so at the same rate they are defending the stocks they hold almost disproportionately. Price increases have much of a precautionary component. This is mounted on a very high inflation process where references and relative prices are lost. Without a doubt, this has an impact and will continue to have an impact on prices.”