2023-08-21 00:26:00
A survey on the general elections in the Province of Buenos Aires positioned the governor Axel Kicillof as the candidate with the highest voting intention and best image ahead of the October elections, despite the fact that almost 60% of those surveyed indicated that they disapprove of the work of the provincial management.
The survey was carried out by CB Public Opinion Consultant. 1,344 Buenos Aires citizens over 16 years of age were surveyed digitally on August 14, 15 and 16. Within the sample, data was collected from 460 cases from the 1st Section and another 450 belonging to the 3rd Section. The margin of error is +/- 2.7%.
First post-PASO survey: Javier Milei surpasses Patricia Bullrich and Sergio Massa in positive image
Before analyzing the electoral scenario, the consultant measured the acceptance of the Buenos Aires management, which resulted in a negative balance. In this sense, 33.5% showed approval of the provincial Executive, against 58.7% who disapproved. For their part, 7.8% did not know what to answer.
Under the premise “If tomorrow were the general elections to elect Governor, who would you vote for among these options?“, the intention to vote was analyzed between Axel Kicillof (Union for the Homeland), Nestor Grindetti (Together for Change), Carolina Píparo (Freedom Advances) and Ruben “El Pollo” Sombrero (Left Front).
The study determined that The current governor would be in first place, with 37.6%.
In second place is Grindetti with 25.6%, closely followed by Píparo, who obtained 24%.
In last place was Sobrero, with 1.4%. For their part, 3% indicated that they would vote blank or annul their vote, while 8.5% did not know who to choose.
Notably 76% of those surveyed indicated that “they will surely go to vote”, with 8.4% considering it “very probable”. On the other hand, 1.6% stated that it is “unlikely” to go to the polls and 1.4% who responded that they would not vote. 12.6% answered that they did not know if they would participate in the elections.
Electoral ceilings and projection of affirmative votes
When analyzing the electoral floors and ceilings, once again Kicillof leads the list. The governor accumulates a 33% sure vote, to which is added a 10.3% probable vote, giving him a ceiling of 40.3%. On the contrary, 48.8% responded that they would “never vote.” Regarding the projection of affirmative votes, the poll considered that this figure would correspond to 42.4%.
It is followed by Píparo, with a ceiling of 34.4%. 12.1% affirmed voting for the Libertarian candidate, along with a probable vote of 22.3%. For her part, 44% would not vote for her. Regarding the projection of affirmative votes, it would be 27.1%.
In a close third place is Grindetti, with a ceiling of 31.8%. The opposition candidate accumulated 11.8% of sure votes and 19.9% of probable votes. 39.8% were reluctant to vote for him. The projection of affirmative votes was 28.9%.
Finally, the floor of the candidate on the left was 6.9%, between 0.8% who would vote for him and 6.1% who could vote for him. Sobrero obtained 57% that would not vote for him, becoming the candidate with the highest percentage in this field. In his case, the projection of affirmative votes amounted to 1.6%.
Image of the candidates
All the candidates showed a negative balance regarding their image. However, the one who was best positioned was Kicillof. Asked if they knew the applicant and the image they had of him, 41.4% considered that it was positive and 53.2% negative, which gives a differential of -11.8%. On the other hand, 5.4% did not know how to answer/do not know it.
Behind him stands Grindetti, with a positive image of 20.4% and a refusal of 36.3%. Thus, the differential of the JxC candidate is -15.9%. In this case, the level of ignorance reached 43.3%.
Píparo was positioned in third place with a differential of -17%, comprised of a positive image of 23.5% against a negative one of 40.6%. 35.9% indicated that they did not know what to answer or that they did not know the Libertarian candidate.
The last position was occupied by Sobrero, who accumulated a positive image of 4.4% and a negative one of 45.9%. The candidate from the Left was the one with the highest differential, with -41.5%. For their part, 49.7% indicated that they did not know how to answer or that they did not know him.
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