2023-10-03 19:08:08
Inflation increased slightly in September, still driven by food and housing, but remains below the target set by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). A further acceleration in prices is anticipated between now and the end of the year.
During the month under review, inflation in Switzerland stood at 1.7% year-on-year, after 1.6% in August, supported by a clear increase in prices for local products, the Federal Office said on Tuesday. of Statistics (OFS) in a press release.
Over one month, however, the consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.1% to 106.3 points.
The progression over one year is in line with the forecasts of economists surveyed by the AWP agency, who expected an acceleration of between 1.7% and 1.9%. The monthly variation was, however, expected between 0.0% and +0.2%.
A general increase
The main items of daily spending continued to support the rise in prices in the Confederation. Food and non-alcoholic beverages recorded the strongest growth with +3.8% over one year. But this group of products is slowing its rise after reaching a high of +6.5% in February. Among the food products to have shown strong growth are chocolate (+6.1%) and fruit and vegetable juices (+7.6%).
Spending on housing and energy also increased by 3.2%, driven by rents (+1.6%), electricity (+25.5%) and gas (+14.5%). . Next are costs for restaurants and hotels (+2.7%).
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Petroleum products, on the other hand, recorded a decline in prices (-8.6%) compared to September 2022, bringing down gasoline (-4.5%), diesel (-10.8%) and especially fuel oil (-16.2 %). Since the summer, however, the price of a barrel of Brent has continued to increase, which has resulted in an increase in the price of petroleum products of 3% over one month, visible in prices at the pump.
Despite the annual drop in prices for petroleum products, prices for air transport (+7.5%) and international package tours (+7%) continued to grow.
Rent and energy: 25% of expenses
The rise in prices is expected to continue. “Rents and energy represent 25% of Swiss consumer spending. This increase was expected and will continue. Half of rents will increase by 3% to 8% from October, which will accentuate inflationary pressures,” he said. thus explained Arthur Jurus, investment manager for Oddo BHF (Switzerland).
Over two years, the annualized rate of prices still remains high at 2.4%, which supports the maintenance of the SNB’s key rate at 1.75%, recalled Arthur Jurus in a commentary. The issuing institute had in fact kept its key rate at this level during its meeting in September.
Inflationary pressure is expected to increase in the coming months, in particular due to the increase in rents and electricity prices, also warned the president of the SNB, Thomas Jordan. “The battle against inflation is not yet won,” he insisted.
While the Swiss central bank is targeting inflation between 0% and 2%, the latter should come out at 2.2% this year and next. It is only in 2025 that it should return to the target range with an anticipated rate of 1.9%.
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