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Pitching Prowess and Home-Field Advantage: Unpacking Key Matchups

As the baseball season heats up, certain games stand out due to compelling pitching matchups and notable team trends. We’re diving into a trio of contests where analytics and insider betting trends paint a clear picture of where the value might lie.

Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: Twins aim to Extend Dominance

The Minnesota Twins are poised to continue their strong play against the Pittsburgh Pirates, boasting superior offensive firepower and a more favorable pitching situation. Minnesota’s bats are significantly more potent,evidenced by their .241 batting average, 112 home runs, and 401 runs scored, dwarfing Pittsburgh’s .229 average, 65 homers, and 324 runs. On the mound, the Twins’ Bailey Ober has been stellar in July, posting a 0.90 ERA over two starts, surrendering just one earned run in 10 innings.Conversely, the Pirates have struggled mightily with Mitch Keller on the hill, managing only a 3-12 record in his last 15 starts. Home-field advantage also heavily favors Minnesota,with a strong 28-19 record at home,while Pittsburgh falters on the road,holding a dismal 12-37 record,tied for the second-worst in MLB.

St. louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves: Sharps Backing Gray to Prevent Sweep

In a pivotal series finale, the St. Louis Cardinals are heavily favored to avoid a sweep against the Atlanta Braves, with sharp money pouring in on the home team. The Braves, having taken the first two games, now face a formidable Sonny Gray (9-3, 3.51 ERA), who boasts an extraordinary 14-4 record in 18 starts this season and a commanding 6-1 mark with a 2.83 ERA at home.Atlanta will counter with Davis daniel, making his second MLB appearance and 11th with previous AAA numbers showing a 3.52 ERA. Betting patterns reflect strong confidence in St. Louis, with the Cardinals moving from an opening -150 to -170. At DraftKings, they’re drawing 77% of moneyline bets and a dominant 89% of the money wagered. Circa sportsbook echoes this sentiment, with 67% of bets and a staggering 99% of the dollars backing the Cardinals. Offensively, St.Louis holds an edge, hitting.252 with 439 runs compared to Atlanta’s .243 average and 384 runs. The cardinals also enjoy the comforts of home, with a solid 28-20 record at Busch Stadium, while Atlanta struggles away from home at 18-30, the fourth-worst road record in the league.

Arizona diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Angels: Reverse Line Movement points to Angels Upset

Despite the public leaning towards the Arizona Diamondbacks to salvage the series, sharp bettors are aggressively backing the Los Angeles Angels in a clear case of reverse line movement. The Angels have already secured the first two wins and are now seeing their odds flip from an opening -105 underdog to a -120 favorite. This shift, against the majority of public opinion (65% of bets on arizona), suggests significant professional money is flowing towards the Angels. At Circa, the Angels are attracting 40% of bets but a higher 55% of the money, indicating a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bettor split. Furthermore, the Angels’ offense has been clicking, hitting .275 over their last ten games, a stark contrast to the Diamondbacks’ .215 mark in the same span.

What does it suggest when a team receives a higher percentage of tickets but a lower percentage of the handle?

sunday MLB Betting Splits: Top Picks for July 13th

Understanding MLB Betting Splits for July 13th, 2025

Betting splits are crucial for informed MLB betting. They reveal how the public is wagering on a game, offering insights into potential value. Analyzing these splits – moneyline, run line, and over/under percentages – can highlight discrepancies between public perception and potentially more accurate odds.Today, July 13th, 2025, several games present interesting split dynamics. We’ll focus on key matchups and provide MLB picks based on this data.

Key Terminology for MLB Betting

Before diving into specific games, let’s define some essential terms:

Moneyline: A straight-up bet on who will win the game.

Run Line: A bet on the margin of victory, typically -1.5 runs for the favorite and +1.5 runs for the underdog.

Over/Under (Total): A bet on the combined total runs scored by both teams.

Handle: The total amount of money wagered on a specific bet.

Tickets: The number of individual bets placed on a specific bet.

Steam Moves: Sudden, significant shifts in betting lines, frequently enough indicating sharp action.

Game 1: New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox – Run Line Focus

This AL East rivalry always draws significant action. As of 10:00 AM ET on July 13th, the splits show:

Moneyline: Yankees -150 (70% of tickets, 65% of handle)

Run Line: Yankees -1.5 (+105) (55% of tickets,60% of handle)

Over/Under: 9.5 (-110) (52% of tickets, 58% of handle)

Moneyline: Dodgers -180 (75% of tickets,72% of handle)

Run Line: dodgers -2.5 (+120) (60% of tickets, 62% of handle)

Over/Under: 8.5 (-115) (68% of tickets,70% of handle)

A massive 68% of tickets are on the Over,driving the total up. However, the handle is only slightly higher, indicating some sharp money is potentially backing the Under. Joe Musgrove is on the mound for the Padres, and he’s historically performed well against the Dodgers. While the Dodgers’ offense is potent, Musgrove’s ability to limit damage, coupled with the inflated total, makes Under 8.5 runs a compelling play.

Game 3: Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds – moneyline value

This NL Central matchup presents an intriguing prospect. Splits (11:00 AM ET):

Moneyline: Reds -130 (60% of tickets, 55% of handle)

Run line: Reds -1.5 (+100) (45% of tickets, 40% of handle)

Over/Under: 9 (-105) (50% of tickets, 52% of handle)

Reverse Line Movement (RLM) is a powerful tool for MLB predictions. It occurs when the betting line moves against* the public’s betting percentage. For