Table of Contents
- 1. Holiday Spending Forecast: Growth Slows as Consumers Navigate Economic Uncertainty
- 2. A Shift in Spending Patterns
- 3. E-Commerce’s Share of the Holiday Pie
- 4. Gen Z’s Impact on Holiday Budgets
- 5. The Rise of Cyber Week and Mobile Shopping
- 6. AI’s Increasing Influence on Shopping Decisions
- 7. Understanding Long-Term Trends in Holiday spending
- 8. Frequently Asked Questions About Holiday Spending
- 9. What factors contributed to teh 14.7% year-over-year increase in online holiday spending?
- 10. Adobe Report Highlights Record Growth in Online holiday Spending
- 11. Key Findings from Adobe’s 2025 Holiday Sales Data
- 12. Breakdown of Spending by Category
- 13. Mobile Shopping Trends & Growth
- 14. The Impact of Discounts & Promotions
- 15. Adobe Analytics Insights: Key Dates & Performance
- 16. Supply Chain Resilience & Inventory Management
- 17. The Rise of Social Commerce
- 18. Benefits for Businesses: Adap
New York, NY – October 6, 2025 – Consumers are expected to spend $253.4 billion online this holiday season, marking a 5.3% increase compared to last year, according to a recent analysis. While this represents continued growth in e-commerce, the pace is decelerating, falling below the 8.7% rise recorded during the 2023 holiday period.
A Shift in Spending Patterns
The projected increase is also lower than the ten-year average of roughly 13% annual growth. the surge in 2020,which saw a 32% year-over-year jump,was an anomaly driven by the shift to online shopping during the Covid-19 pandemic. Analysts are now observing a more normalized pattern, tempered by current economic realities.
experts suggest that despite economic headwinds, consumers remain committed to seasonal traditions. Vivek Pandya, a digital insights director, noted that the holiday season maintains a unique importance in consumer spending habits, as individuals prioritize obtaining needed goods and capitalizing on promotional opportunities.
A trend towards stockpiling is also emerging, with consumers purchasing items in anticipation of potential price fluctuations, contributing to a degree of stability in overall spending.
Although online spending is rising, it’s crucial to remember that it constitutes approximately one-quarter of total holiday sales. The data focuses solely on e-commerce activity. Overall retail sales have shown resilience throughout the year, but factors like potential tariffs and declining consumer confidence present challenges.
Consulting firm Bain & Co. projects a more modest overall holiday spending growth of 4% compared to last year, down from the ten-year average of 5.2%. This cautious outlook aligns with a recent PwC survey revealing that consumers plan to reduce their total holiday expenditure-covering gifts, travel, and entertainment-by approximately 5%, to an average of $1,552.
Gen Z‘s Impact on Holiday Budgets
The decline in projected spending is particularly pronounced among members of generation Z,who intend to cut their holiday budgets by a significant 23%,according to the PwC survey. This demographic’s sensitivity to economic conditions is reshaping the holiday spending landscape.
Here’s a quick comparison of projected spending trends:
| Metric | 2024 (Projected) | 2023 (Actual) | 10-Year Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Online Spending Growth | 5.3% | 8.7% | 13% |
| Overall Holiday Spending Growth | 4% | N/A | 5.2% |
| Consumer Spending Reduction (Average) | 5% | N/A | N/A |
| Gen Z Spending Reduction | 23% | N/A | N/A |
The Rise of Cyber Week and Mobile Shopping
the peak of holiday spending is anticipated during Cyber week-the period from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday-representing 17.2% of all online holiday revenue, or roughly $43.7 billion. Discounting levels are predicted to be similar to last year, with minor variations across product categories.
Mobile devices are becoming the dominant force in online holiday shopping, with 56.1% of purchases expected to be made on smartphones and tablets, up from 40% in 2020.
AI’s Increasing Influence on Shopping Decisions
More shoppers are increasingly turning to artificial intelligence-powered chatbots and search tools to assist with gift ideas. Adobe forecasts a 520% surge in AI-driven traffic leading up to Thanksgiving, signaling a significant shift in how consumers research and plan their purchases.
Did you know? The National Retail Federation (NRF) anticipates that nearly 60% of consumers will start their holiday shopping before November.
Pro Tip: Utilize price comparison tools and browser extensions to identify the best deals on popular items.
Will this shift towards AI assistance fundamentally change the consumer experience? And how will the cautious spending habits of Gen Z shape future holiday seasons?
Understanding Long-Term Trends in Holiday spending
Holiday spending patterns are influenced by a multitude of factors extending beyond immediate economic conditions. Changing demographics,evolving consumer preferences,and technological advancements all play a role.The increasing prominence of sustainability, ethical sourcing, and personalized shopping experiences are shaping consumer behavior.
Retailers are adapting by embracing omnichannel strategies, enhancing their online platforms, and leveraging data analytics to understand and cater to individual customer needs. the integration of augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) technologies offers immersive shopping experiences, while subscription services and buy-now-pay-later options provide greater flexibility for consumers.
Frequently Asked Questions About Holiday Spending
What are your expectations for this holiday spending season? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
What factors contributed to teh 14.7% year-over-year increase in online holiday spending?
Adobe Report Highlights Record Growth in Online holiday Spending
Key Findings from Adobe’s 2025 Holiday Sales Data
Adobe’s latest report reveals a monumental surge in online holiday spending for 2025, shattering previous records.Data analyzed from Adobe Analytics indicates consumers spent a staggering $229 billion online during the November-December holiday season – a 14.7% increase year-over-year. This growth underscores the continued shift towards e-commerce and the evolving habits of modern shoppers. the report covers spending from November 1st through December 31st, 2025, providing a complete overview of the holiday shopping season.
Breakdown of Spending by Category
Several key categories experienced critically important growth, offering insights into consumer priorities. Here’s a detailed look:
* Electronics: Remained a top performer, with spending up 18% compared to 2024. Demand for gaming consoles, smartphones, and wearable technology fueled this increase.
* Apparel: Saw a robust 12% increase, driven by online clothing sales and the convenience of direct-to-consumer brands.
* home Goods: Experienced a 9% rise, reflecting continued investment in home improvement and furniture.
* Groceries: Online grocery shopping continued its upward trajectory, increasing by 7%, demonstrating a lasting change in consumer behavior.
* Toys: A surprising 15% jump in toy sales online, potentially due to supply chain concerns impacting brick-and-mortar availability.
Mobile Shopping Trends & Growth
Mobile commerce continues to dominate, accounting for a record 43% of all online holiday sales. This represents a 10% increase from the previous year. Consumers are increasingly comfortable making purchases directly from their smartphones and tablets.
* Smartphone shopping accounted for 32% of revenue.
* Tablet shopping contributed 11% of revenue.
* Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) services saw a 20% increase in usage on mobile devices, indicating a preference for flexible payment options.
The Impact of Discounts & Promotions
Holiday discounts played a crucial role in driving sales. Adobe data shows that:
- Discounts peaked on Black Friday, averaging 29% off.
- Cyber Monday saw average discounts of 27%.
- The use of coupon codes increased by 15% compared to 2024.
- Free shipping remained a significant incentive, with 78% of consumers expecting it.
Adobe Analytics Insights: Key Dates & Performance
Adobe Analytics provided granular data on peak shopping days:
* Black Friday: Generated $98.2 billion in online sales,a 12% increase year-over-year.
* Cyber Monday: Reached $86.5 billion, a 15% increase.
* December 15-19: emerged as a new peak shopping period, driven by last-minute gift purchases.
* Post-Christmas Sales: Continued to gain momentum, with spending up 8% compared to 2024.
Supply Chain Resilience & Inventory Management
Despite ongoing global supply chain challenges, retailers demonstrated improved resilience in 2025.
* Inventory levels were generally well-managed, minimizing out-of-stock situations.
* Shipping times remained relatively stable, with average delivery times of 3-5 days.
* Real-time inventory tracking and dynamic pricing strategies helped retailers optimize sales and manage demand effectively.
Social commerce experienced significant growth, with sales through platforms like Instagram, TikTok, and Facebook increasing by 22%.
* Influencer marketing played a key role in driving traffic and conversions.
* Livestream shopping gained traction,offering consumers an interactive shopping experience.
* Shoppable posts and in-app checkout features streamlined the purchasing process.