German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is scheduled to visit China, a trip coming as Berlin grapples with concerns about its economic competitiveness and the need for a unified European strategy toward Beijing, according to a frank assessment offered by Merz himself. The Chancellor stated China systematically fosters dependencies, aims to reshape the international order, and may soon achieve military parity with the United States.
The visit, Merz’s first official trip to China as Chancellor, occurs at a moment of heightened geopolitical tension. Transatlantic relations are strained, and China is actively promoting itself as an alternative center for “true multilateralism,” as articulated by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi at the Munich Security Conference. This shifting global landscape necessitates a carefully calibrated approach from Berlin, one that bolsters Europe’s economic security and strategic resilience, analysts say.
A key concern for Germany, and the wider European Union, is China’s continued support for Russia’s war in Ukraine. Merz has publicly stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin would be unable to sustain the four-year-long conflict without Chinese backing. This support represents a “structural burden” on bilateral relations with China, according to observers.
Beyond the geopolitical implications, Germany is likewise focused on addressing economic vulnerabilities. China’s export strength is fueling a debate within Germany about its own lagging competitiveness. Berlin is prioritizing “de-risking” its economic relationship with China, a strategy that aims to reduce dependencies without resorting to protectionism – a tactic China itself has employed for years. Export controls, particularly regarding rare earths, are seen as a potential tool to address vulnerabilities, though they also risk weaponizing dependencies.
The trade imbalance between Europe and China, coupled with China’s industrial policy, is viewed as a long-term economic and security risk. China’s next Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) is expected to continue its current trajectory, with even greater speed and ambition.
German politicians are also grappling with internal divisions regarding the appropriate approach to China. Omid Nouripour, a German government official, has reportedly criticized a perceived lack of coordination within the government, questioning whether the focus on the United States is distracting from more pressing issues.
Daniela Schwarzer, a commentator on German foreign policy, argues that Merz’s visit must convey a clear message to Beijing. The Chancellor faces a balancing act, seeking to strengthen the German economy while navigating a complex geopolitical landscape.
The upcoming visit is expected to be a test of European unity, with the outcome potentially reverberating across the EU’s broader China policy. Whether Merz can resist a potential “charm offensive” from Beijing and adhere to the four guardrails – addressing China’s stance on Ukraine, prioritizing economic security and de-risking, and maintaining European unity – remains to be seen.