Nigeria’s foreign reserves have reached $46 billion, the highest level in a decade, even as concerns mount that President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms may prioritize macroeconomic stability over tangible improvements in living standards and sustainable development.
The World Bank recently lauded Tinubu’s reform drive, citing Nigeria as a frequent global reference point for implementation. However, Kingsley Moghalu, former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria and President of the Institute for Governance and Economic Transformation (IGET), cautioned that without fundamental changes in governance – specifically accountability, transparency, and the rule of law – the reforms risk becoming “a well-funded mask for governance decay.”
Moghalu argues that while macroeconomic stability is a necessary tool, This proves not an complete in itself. He contends that the Tinubu administration’s policies, including the removal of fuel subsidies and efforts to stabilize the naira, fail to address systemic weaknesses in human development, basic services, and institutional integrity. The Central Bank has achieved success in stabilizing the exchange rate and curbing inflation, but the benefits have yet to significantly impact ordinary Nigerians.
The removal of fuel subsidies, for example, was implemented with insufficient planning for mass transit and other social infrastructure. While the federal government has realized savings, these have not yet translated into visible improvements in healthcare, education, or access to safe drinking water. According to recent data, only 32% of Nigerians have access to safe drinking water at home.
Moghalu emphasizes the need for structural transformation, drawing parallels with the economic successes of Southeast Asian nations like Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia. These countries, he notes, paired economic policies with stringent behavioral reforms to achieve lasting growth. Nigeria, in contrast, continues to grapple with significant developmental challenges. The country ranks 140 out of 180 on Transparency International’s Corruption Index and 164 out of 193 on the UN Human Development Index. The World Bank’s Human Capital Index estimates that a child born in Nigeria today has only a 36% chance of reaching full productive potential.
Nigeria’s economy remains heavily reliant on oil, with manufacturing contributing a relatively small 8–10% of GDP. Electricity supply remains constrained at approximately 5,000MW, far below the level required to support robust industrial productivity. According to reports, the Tinubu government has secured loans worth $6.45 billion from the World Bank in the last 16 months, with an additional $1.57 billion recently approved for various projects. Further borrowing is anticipated, potentially bringing Nigeria’s total debt to the World Bank to $9.2 billion in 2025, and potentially $9.6 billion, according to recent projections.
Moghalu urges a shift away from what he calls a “growth delusion” towards a development strategy grounded in transparency, accountability, and citizen-centered policies. He believes that only such a foundation can unlock Nigeria’s potential and deliver tangible prosperity. The World Bank has approved 36 loan requests to the Federal Government, amounting to a substantial total of $24.088 billion within five years, raising concerns about the sustainability of these financial commitments and their potential long-term effects on the economy.