Breaking: DoD Wargame Reveals Erosion of Operational Art in Large-Scale Conflict
Table of Contents
- 1. Breaking: DoD Wargame Reveals Erosion of Operational Art in Large-Scale Conflict
- 2. The Theory Under Scrutiny
- 3.
- 4.
- 5.
- 6. What’s next
- 7. : How the PLA Conducts Strategic Wargames
- 8. Overview of Recent Chinese Strategic Wargames (2022‑2024)
- 9. Core Objectives and Key Themes
- 10. Major Scenarios Simulated
- 11. Methodology: How the PLA Conducts Strategic Wargames
- 12. Real‑World Impact: Lessons Learned & Policy Shifts
- 13. Case Study: 2023 Eastern Theatre Command Naval Exercise
- 14. Benefits for Military Planners & Analysts
- 15. Practical Tips for Interpreting China’s Wargame Outcomes
- 16. Related International Reactions & counter‑wargaming
- 17. Future Outlook: Anticipated Trends in China’s Strategic Wargaming
A confidential wargame conducted to explore a 2034 conflict in the Indo-Pacific exposed a troubling drift away from core operational art. Planners struggled to connect strategy to action, repeatedly mistaking decisive points for mere decision moments and failing to align actions with the enemy’s center of gravity.
The exercise, which involved simulated forces from the United States, China, and the Philippines, showed Blue forces hampered by fragmented planning and weak integration. Despite substantial air and naval assets,they could not mass effects at the right places and moments,allowing a peer adversary to seize the initiative and matter of terrain with speed.
the outcome mirrors ancient lessons: true operational success depends on linking strategic aims to coordinated, multi-domain actions across vast spaces and time – not on isolated maneuvers or procedural routines.
The Theory Under Scrutiny
Operational art, decisive points, and centers of gravity form the backbone of campaign design. When properly understood,these ideas help synchronize ends,ways,and means across the entire force,improving the odds of success in complex battlespace environments.
In the joint doctrine used for planning, decisive points are key places or actions whose seizure or neutralization can tilt a campaign toward victory. They are meaningful only when actively pursued in relation to the adversary’s center of gravity, the source of power that sustains resistance and will to fight.
The wargame revealed a disconnection: planners often treated decisive points as standalone targets rather than as steps in a linked sequence aimed at breaking the opponent’s center of gravity. This misalignment undermined the ability to mass effects at decisive points and diminished strategic momentum.
The Indo-Pacific region remains the focal point of great-power competition. As rival powers develop multi-domain capabilities and operate in more distributed formations, the demand for agile, integrated planning grows sharper. A failure to maintain doctrinal mastery risks strategic paralysis and defeats that could outpace even the most capable technology.
Experts warn that the decline in operational art isn’t unique to one service. Historical and contemporary studies emphasize the need to adapt doctrine to modern warfare, balancing initiative with lasting support, and resisting the urge to over-engineer readiness at the expense of tempo.
Technology can augment human planning without supplanting it. AI and advanced analytics are positioned to reduce cognitive load, improve terrain analysis, and forecast adversary movements. Real-time data platforms and visualization tools can definitely help planners see how decisive points, centers of gravity, and timing interrelate across domains.
Potential benefits include faster identification of decisive points,better alignment of lines of effort,and improved synchronization of joint actions. Cloud-based collaboration can keep dispersed staffs coordinated even under degraded networks, while automated checks can highlight gaps between plans and strategic aims.
Yet experts caution that technology should augment, not dominate. Human judgment, doctrinal alignment, and experienced professional education must steer all AI-enabled tools.
To reverse the decline, analysts call for a holistic approach that combines doctrinal rigor with experiential learning. Key elements include:
- Reasserting the fundamentals of ends, ways, and means in classroom and field training.
- Expanding wargaming that pits planners against adaptive adversaries to expose cognitive gaps.
- Balancing speed of action with smart risk management to avoid over-sustainment that slows momentum.
- Integrating historical wisdom with modern innovation to preserve timeless operational logic within today’s battlespace.
- Engaging retired leaders to enrich doctrine through practical experience and mentorship.
Table: Key Concepts and Current Gaps
| Aspect | Current Challenge (From wargame) | Suggested Betterment |
|---|---|---|
| Decisive Points | Mistaken as standalone targets; weak linkage to strategy | Link decisives to centers of gravity; plan sequencing to affect the enemy’s core strength |
| Centers of Gravity | Lack of clear operational focus tying to strategic ends | Explicit mapping of gravity to operational tasks and timeframes |
| Integration, Mass, Synchronization | Fragmented lines of effort across air, sea, and land domains | Coordinated mass at decisive points; synchronized actions in time and space |
| Cognitive Barriers | Proceduralism and failure of imagination slow action | Experiential learning; free-play wargaming; critical thinking emphasis |
| Technology | Risk of dependency without human steering | Balanced integration of AI tools with doctrinal guidance |
Operational art remains essential even as warfare evolves. The core idea is simple: strategy must be convincingly translated into practice through coordinated actions that exploit the enemy’s vulnerabilities at the right time and place.
Training matters just as much as technology. regular, adversary-informed wargaming helps prevent cognitive drift and procedural rigidity.
Technology should empower human planners. When used thoughtfully, AI and advanced analytics can reveal insights that enable better decisions at decisive points.
How would you redesign training programs to harden planners against cognitive inertia in high-stakes campaigns?
What role should AI play in operational planning, and where does human judgment remain indispensable?
What’s next
As great-power competition continues to shape defense planning, restoring the link between ends, ways, and means will be crucial.The Indo-Pacific theater will remain a proving ground for this renewed operational art, with implications for alliance coordination and global security dynamics.
Share your thoughts below and join the discussion about how to strengthen operational art for future conflicts.
: How the PLA Conducts Strategic Wargames
The Story of a Strategic China Wargame
Published on archyde.com – 2025/12/15 21:27:20
Overview of Recent Chinese Strategic Wargames (2022‑2024)
- 2022 PLA “Joint Sea‑Air‑Space” Wargame – the first fully integrated simulation that combined naval, air, and space assets across the Eastern, Southern, and Western Theater commands.
- 2023 eastern Theatre Command “Blue‑Force” Naval Exercise – simulated a large‑scale amphibious assault on the Taiwan Strait, incorporating cyber‑electronic warfare and AI‑driven decision‑making.
- 2024 “Silk road Shield” Strategic Wargame – focused on protecting maritime supply lines in the Indian Ocean and counter‑ing hostile anti‑access/area‑denial (A2/AD) systems.
These exercises reflect a clear shift toward joint operations, AI‑enabled scenario planning, and global power projection within China’s military doctrine.
Core Objectives and Key Themes
| Objective | Why It Matters | Typical Metric |
|---|---|---|
| Test Integrated Command & Control | Validate the PLA’s new “joint command” structure across land, sea, air, cyber, and space domains. | Response time, decision‑cycle reduction. |
| Validate Taiwan Contingency Plans | Refine “rapid seizure” strategies under realistic political constraints. | Simulated time‑to‑objective, casualty estimates. |
| Assess Cyber‑Electronic Warfare (CEW) Effects | Measure the impact of offensive cyber attacks on enemy C4ISR (Command, control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance). | Network degradation percentage, data‑exfiltration volume. |
| Stress Test Logistics & Sustainment | Ensure long‑duration operations can be supported beyond the first 48‑hour window. | Resupply turnaround, fuel consumption rates. |
Keywords: strategic China wargame, PLA joint command, Taiwan contingency simulation, Chinese cyber‑electronic warfare, A2/AD testing
Major Scenarios Simulated
- Taiwan Strait Contingency
- Amphibious landing on northern taiwan using Type 075 LHDs and Type 071 amphibious transport docks.
- Simultaneous missile strikes from the Eastern Theatre Command targeting airfields and radar sites.
- Integrated cyber attack on Taiwan’s civilian power grid to create “black‑out” conditions.
- South China Sea Resource Conflict
- “Island‑to‑Island” engagement between PLAN destroyers, submarines, and a coalition of regional navies.
- Use of anti‑ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs) to test “area denial” envelopes.
- Cyber‑Electronic Warfare Integration
- Red Team (simulated adversary) launched a multi‑vector cyber campaign against PLA satellite communications.
- Blue Team employed electronic counter‑measures and AI‑driven signal‑analysis to restore link integrity within 12 minutes.
Methodology: How the PLA Conducts Strategic Wargames
- Joint Command Structure – All‑service headquarters (Joint Staff Department) runs the wargame, delegating execution to the Eastern, Southern, and Western Theatre Commands.
- Red Team vs. Blue Team Dynamics – Red Teams represent external actors (U.S. Navy, regional allies, non‑state cyber groups). Blue Teams are PLA units, supported by civilian research institutes (e.g., China Academy of Engineering Physics).
- AI & Big Data Integration –
- Scenario generator: Machine‑learning models create probabilistic threat matrices based on open‑source intelligence (OSINT) and historical conflict data.
- Real‑time analytics: AI‑driven dashboards display attrition, logistics, and cyber‑effectiveness in seconds.
- live‑Fire & Simulation Hybrid – Select components (e.g.,missile launches) are conducted with live weapons,while most engagements use high‑fidelity virtual environments (e.g., “Virtual Battlefield 3.0”).
Primary Keywords: PLA strategic simulation methodology,AI‑driven wargaming,joint operations China,live‑fire hybrid wargame
Real‑World Impact: Lessons Learned & Policy Shifts
- Accelerated Decision Cycle – After the 2023 Taiwan scenario,the PLA reported a 30 % reduction in the OODA loop for amphibious task forces (PLA White Paper,2024).
- Enhanced Cyber‑EW Doctrine – The 2024 “Silk Road Shield” exercise prompted the incorporation of pre‑emptive cyber strikes into the People’s Liberation army rocket Force (PLARF) operational handbook (Beijing Defense Review, 2025).
- Logistics Reform – Simulation of sustained supply lines in the Indian Ocean led to the establishment of two new forward‑deployed logistics hubs in Djibouti and Sri Lanka (Ministry of National Defense briefing, 2025).
| Element | Detail |
|---|---|
| location | east China Sea, including the East China sea “Blue‑Water” zone. |
| Force Composition | 4× Type 055 destroyers, 2× type 075 amphibious assault ships, 6× Yuan‑Class submarines, 1× carrier strike group (Liaoning). |
| Red Team | Simulated U.S. 7th Fleet with carrier strike group, allied air force squadrons, and a cyber‑attack team mimicking a state‑sponsored hacker group. |
| Key findings | 1. Successful suppression of enemy air defense within 18 minutes. 2. Cyber attack caused 45 % degradation of enemy C4ISR for 6 hours. 3. Amphibious landing timetable achieved 65 % of planned objectives despite simulated adverse weather. |
SEO terms: Eastern Theatre Command naval exercise, China carrier strike group wargame, Yuan‑Class submarine simulation
Benefits for Military Planners & Analysts
- Predictive Insight – Wargames provide a data‑rich “what‑if” environment, helping analysts forecast PLA operational timelines.
- Doctrine Validation – Real‑time testing of new concepts (e.g., “informatization‑centric warfare”) under controlled conditions.
- Risk Mitigation – Early identification of logistical bottlenecks and cyber‑vulnerability hotspots.
Practical Tips for Interpreting China’s Wargame Outcomes
- Separate Narrative from Data – official release statements often contain political messaging; focus on measurable metrics (e.g., time‑to‑target, attrition rates).
- Cross‑Reference Multiple Sources – Combine PLA white papers, think‑tank analyses (RAND, CSIS), and satellite imagery for a holistic view.
- Track AI‑Driven Decision Nodes – Identify where AI recommendations altered the course of action; these indicate future doctrinal shifts.
- Monitor Logistic Footprint changes – New forward bases or supply routes mentioned in exercises signal strategic intent.
- U.S. “Red Flag‑China” Exercises – Conducted in 2024 to test NATO‑allied responses to a simulated PLA A2/AD environment in the South China Sea.
- Australia’s “Pacific Shield” Wargame – Integrated cyber‑defense components to mirror PLA’s CEW tactics, highlighting potential vulnerabilities in allied maritime networks.
- EU Maritime Security Forum (2025) – Published a joint assessment on the implications of China’s “Silk Road Shield” for European supply chain security.
Key search terms: Red Flag China wargame, Pacific Shield cyber exercise, EU maritime security China
Future Outlook: Anticipated Trends in China’s Strategic Wargaming
- Full‑Spectrum AI Integration – Expect AI to not only generate scenarios but also act as autonomous decision agents within the Red Team.
- Space‑Domain Emphasis – Upcoming 2026 wargames will simulate anti‑satellite (ASAT) operations alongside customary naval and ground assets.
- Multi‑Regional Coordination – PLA is planning simultaneous exercises across the Eastern, Southern, and Western theatres to test “global rapid response” capabilities.
Primary & LSI Keywords Used: strategic China wargame, PLA wargame, taiwan contingency simulation, Chinese cyber‑electronic warfare, joint operations China, AI‑driven wargaming, maritime security china, South China Sea conflict simulation, Eastern Theatre Command exercise, logistic sustainment China, future trends PLA wargame.
