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The F-35 and Turkey: A Geopolitical Tightrope Walk with Billions at Stake

A $1.4 billion gamble hangs in the balance, and the future of NATO’s southern flank may depend on the outcome. Recent discussions between Turkish President Erdogan and U.S. officials regarding the F-35 fighter jet program have reopened a deeply contentious issue – Turkey’s potential reentry after being expelled in 2019 over its purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense system. While Erdogan indicated a willingness to discuss the matter, the critical question remains: can trust be rebuilt, and is reintegrating Turkey into the F-35 program worth the inherent risks?

The S-400 Shadow: A Persistent Security Concern

The core of the dispute remains the S-400. U.S. officials have consistently warned that operating both the F-35 and the S-400 in close proximity creates an unacceptable security vulnerability. The S-400’s radar systems could potentially gather intelligence on the F-35’s stealth capabilities, compromising the aircraft’s advanced technology and potentially sharing that information with Russia. As John Thomas, Managing Director of Nestpoint Associates, points out, “The S-400’s radars are a dealbreaker,” and any path back for Turkey requires addressing this fundamental concern.

Potential solutions, such as dismantling the S-400 or transferring control of key components to the U.S., have been floated. However, these proposals face significant hurdles. Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow at Defense Priorities, suggests a more drastic step: “Ankara should give the S-400 system back to Russia if they are serious about reentering the F-35 program.” While politically unlikely, this highlights the depth of distrust and the magnitude of the security concerns.

Strategic Imperatives: Why Turkey Matters to NATO

Despite the security risks, the strategic arguments for Turkey’s inclusion in the F-35 program are compelling. Turkey’s geographic location, bordering Syria, Iran, and Russia, is invaluable to NATO’s southern flank. A modern air force equipped with fifth-generation fighters like the F-35 would significantly enhance NATO’s deterrence capabilities in a volatile region. Furthermore, Turkey’s existing role in manufacturing over 900 parts for the F-35 – a role disrupted by its expulsion – could potentially lower costs and streamline production. This represents a significant economic incentive for the U.S. and other partner nations.

However, this strategic value is increasingly weighed against concerns about Turkey’s broader geopolitical alignment. Erdogan’s government has deepened ties with Russia, pursuing energy projects and arms deals that raise questions about its commitment to the Western alliance. The development of Turkey’s own fifth-generation fighter, the KAAN, further underscores this trend towards strategic independence. As Blaise Misztal, Vice President for Policy at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, argues, allowing Turkey back into the program without demonstrable commitment to Western interests could embolden Ankara and erode the credibility of U.S. alliances.

Navigating Congressional and Allied Opposition

Even if the Biden administration were to pursue a path towards Turkey’s reentry, it would face significant opposition on Capitol Hill. The Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) imposes sanctions on Turkey’s defense procurement agency, and lifting these sanctions would require congressional approval. A bipartisan letter from members of the House of Representatives explicitly urged the administration to block any efforts that would violate U.S. law and compromise national security.

Beyond domestic political considerations, the concerns of key U.S. allies, particularly Israel, Greece, and Cyprus, cannot be ignored. These nations view Turkey’s actions with skepticism and fear the potential consequences of advanced U.S. weaponry falling into the hands of a perceived unreliable partner. This regional dimension adds another layer of complexity to the decision-making process.

The Rise of Alternative Defense Partnerships

Turkey isn’t simply waiting for a resolution to the F-35 impasse. It’s actively diversifying its defense partnerships, forging stronger ties with Russia and expanding trade with Central Asian states. This proactive approach underscores Turkey’s determination to maintain its strategic autonomy and reduces its reliance on the U.S. This shift in posture presents a challenge to the U.S., forcing a reassessment of its long-term strategy for managing its relationship with Ankara. You can find further analysis on shifting geopolitical alliances here.

A Conditional Reentry: The Most Likely Scenario?

Given the complex interplay of security concerns, strategic imperatives, and political obstacles, a full and unconditional reentry of Turkey into the F-35 program appears unlikely. The most plausible scenario involves a conditional path, contingent upon verifiable steps to address U.S. security concerns. This could include decommissioning the S-400, providing legally binding guarantees against future Russian arms purchases, and accepting limitations on access to classified F-35 technology. However, even with these conditions, significant skepticism remains.

The situation highlights a broader challenge for U.S. foreign policy: how to manage relationships with allies who are pursuing independent and sometimes conflicting strategic agendas. The decision regarding Turkey and the F-35 will set a precedent for future engagements, shaping the landscape of U.S. alliances in an increasingly fragmented world. Ultimately, the question isn’t just about the F-35; it’s about the future of the transatlantic alliance and the U.S.’s ability to maintain its influence in a rapidly changing geopolitical environment.

What level of risk is the US willing to accept to regain a strategically important ally? Share your thoughts in the comments below!

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