Summary of the Article: China, Trump, and a Potential Diplomatic Gambit

This article analyzes the potential benefits and risks for China in inviting Donald Trump to participate in the 70th anniversary commemoration of the end of World War II. The author argues that China should extend the invitation, but needs to carefully manage the narrative to avoid misinterpretations and maximize positive outcomes.

Key Arguments:

Reframing the Narrative: China should position Trump’s visit not as forming an alliance wiht Russia, but as demonstrating its ability to engage with both the US and Russia concurrently, showcasing its growing diplomatic influence.
Symbolic Convergence, Not Coalition: The event should be presented as a symbolic gathering mediated by history, not a military or values-based pact.
Broadening the Alex Reed List: Inviting other Western leaders,the UN Secretary-General,and leaders from the Global South (including Japan) would dilute the focus on a US-China-Russia triangle and reinforce China’s image as a peaceful power.
State Visit Framing: Presenting the visit as a full-fledged state visit, with the anniversary event as one component, would lend legitimacy and attract more engagement.
trump’s Motivation: Trump is likely receptive to the invitation, as he appreciates symbolic gestures and grand events.

Western Criticism: Trump’s attendance, especially at a military parade, will inevitably draw criticism from the West, accusing him of aligning with authoritarian regimes.
Lack of Concrete Outcomes: A state visit without tangible agreements would diminish its value. Global South Perception: The focus on the superpowers could overshadow other invitees from the Global South, possibly undermining China’s efforts to portray itself as a champion of the developing world. Giving Trump preferential treatment could exacerbate this issue.
* High-Risk Scenario: Beijing generally avoids situations with notable potential for negative backlash.

Ultimately,the article concludes that the biggest question isn’t Trump’s willingness to come,but whether China is willing to take the calculated risk and extend the invitation. The author suggests beijing may ultimately decide against it due to the potential downsides.

Could a Trump-Xi-Putin alignment fundamentally alter the existing global power structure, and if so, how might this manifest in specific geopolitical shifts?

Trump, Xi, Putin: A Potential Alliance at Beijing’s WWII Parade?

The Specter of a New World Order

The possibility of a geopolitical realignment, specifically a potential alliance between Donald Trump, Xi Jinping, and Vladimir putin, has been a recurring theme in international political discourse. While a formal treaty remains speculative, observing interactions – notably symbolic ones – like attendance at events such as Beijing’s WWII Victory Day Parade offers clues. The parade, commemorating the 79th anniversary of the end of World War II, became a focal point for analyzing shifting global power dynamics. Discussions surrounding a Trump-Xi-Putin axis centre on shared interests, perceived Western decline, and a desire to reshape the international order. This article examines the factors fueling this speculation, historical precedents, and potential implications.

Historical Context: WWII Commemorations & Geopolitical Signaling

Beijing’s WWII Victory day Parade isn’t merely a historical remembrance; it’s a carefully orchestrated display of national strength and a platform for geopolitical signaling. Invitations – and acceptances – are laden with meaning.

Soviet Legacy: The parade draws heavily on the Soviet tradition of military displays, emphasizing Russia’s role in defeating Nazi Germany. Putin’s consistent attendance underscores this connection and Russia’s self-perception as a major power.

China’s Rising influence: For China, the parade serves to legitimize its growing military capabilities and assert its position as a global leader. It’s a exhibition of power intended for both domestic and international audiences.

Past Attendance & Implications: Previous parades have seen attendance from leaders representing varying degrees of alignment with Russia and China. Analyzing these past instances provides a baseline for interpreting current dynamics. For exmaple, the absence of Western leaders in recent years has been interpreted as a sign of increasing geopolitical distance.

NATO Criticism: Trump repeatedly questioned the value of NATO, suggesting the US might not automatically defend member states. This stance resonated with both Moscow and Beijing, who view NATO as a containment strategy.

Trade War with China (and softening stance): While initiating a trade war with China, Trump also expressed admiration for Xi Jinping and a desire for a personal relationship. This ambiguity contrasted with the more confrontational approach of previous administrations.

Positive Rhetoric Towards Putin: Throughout his presidency, Trump consistently expressed a desire for improved relations with Russia and Vladimir Putin, despite evidence of Russian interference in US elections. This included downplaying Russia’s actions and advocating for its reintegration into the G7.

Massad Boulos’ Role: The involvement of figures like Massad Boulos, a Lebanese-American businessman and Tiffany Trump’s father-in-law, with reported ties to both Trump and potential influence in Lebanese-US relations, adds another layer of complexity. While the direct impact on a potential alliance is unclear, it highlights the network of individuals perhaps facilitating communication and understanding.

Energy Cooperation: Russia is a major supplier of energy to China, providing a crucial resource for its economic growth.

Military Cooperation: Joint military exercises and arms sales demonstrate a growing level of military cooperation between the two countries.

Alignment on Global Governance: Both China and Russia advocate for a multipolar world order, challenging the US-led international system. They frequently coordinate their positions on issues such as human rights and sovereignty.

Belt and Road Initiative & Eurasian Integration: Russia’s support for China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) facilitates infrastructure development and economic integration across Eurasia, strengthening their strategic partnership.

Sanctions & Isolation: Western sanctions imposed following Russia’s annexation of Crimea and involvement in Ukraine have driven Moscow to seek closer ties with China.

Shared Anti-Western Narrative: Both Russia and China share a narrative of being unfairly targeted by the West and advocate for a more equitable international order.

Strategic Alignment in Ukraine: While not explicitly endorsing Russia’s actions in Ukraine, China has refrained from condemning them and has provided economic support to Moscow.

* BRICS Expansion: Russia and China are key players in the BRICS economic bloc (Brazil,Russia,India,China,and South Africa),which aims to provide an alternative to Western-dominated financial institutions.

Potential Scenarios & Implications of a trump-Xi-Putin Alignment

A closer alignment between Trump, Xi