The Indian rupee is poised to open lower Tuesday amid broad risk aversion in global markets and a weakening trend among its Asian peers, as traders anticipate potential intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to maintain stability.
The 1-month non-deliverable forward market indicates an opening range of 90.78-90.82 against the U.S. Dollar, a slight decline from Monday’s close of 90.65. The rupee has exhibited limited movement in recent trading sessions, oscillating within a narrow band. Increases in the rupee’s value have been met with consistent dollar demand from importers and speculative investors, while declines have been tempered by expectations of RBI intervention.
Last week, the RBI unexpectedly sold dollars before local market hours, a move interpreted as a signal of its commitment to preventing the rupee from falling below the 91 level. This action has heightened market sensitivity and fostered a cautious approach among traders.
Adding to the downward pressure, foreign investors have been net sellers of Indian equities for the past two sessions. Bankers also report continued, regular dollar demand from oil companies and related to the maturity of non-deliverable forwards (NDF).
“Unless we see a decisive break of key levels, it’s largely flow-driven trade with the RBI in the backdrop,” said a Mumbai-based FX trader. “If 91 gives way, we could see a quick extension higher. However, the market is wary of pushing too hard.”
Economic data released Tuesday also contributed to the rupee’s challenges. India’s merchandise trade deficit widened to $34.68 billion in January, a three-month high. The increase was driven by a surge in imports of gold and silver, according to preliminary data.
Broader Asian market sentiment is also weighing on the rupee. Asian currencies and shares have fallen, and U.S. Equity futures point to a lower open when trading resumes in the United States. Investors are awaiting further signals regarding the potential timing of cuts to U.S. Interest rates, with the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting and advance U.S. GDP figures scheduled later this week.
As of February 9, 2026, the Indian Rupee/US Dollar FX Cross Rate showed a 1-month change of -0.54% and a 1-year change of -3.59% (INRUSD=X).