Mexican Peso Gains Momentum, Supported by Inflation and Economic Package

Mexico City – The Mexican peso continued its upward trajectory for a third consecutive day, buoyed by positive reactions to recent economic data and the government’s proposed 2026 budget.

The exchange rate closed at 18.62 pesos per dollar, representing a 0.16 percent increase, or 2.90 cents, according to Bank of Mexico (Banxico) data. Investors appear reassured by the proximity of recent inflation figures to market expectations, alongside the details of the upcoming economic package.

Felipe Mendoza, a financial markets analyst from ATFX Latam, explained that the inflation data reinforces the peso’s stability in the short term. He also noted the positive impact of recent diplomatic signals with the united States. However, he cautioned that the restrictive fiscal approach within the budget raises concerns for investors and ties the peso’s performance to domestic economic policy and the global dollar’s trajectory in conjunction with future inflation data and monetary policy decisions.

The dollar itself has seen fluctuations. As of today,the dollar price in bank windows is at 19.06 pesos. The dollar index (DXY), measuring the US currency’s strength against six major currencies, showed a 0.37 percent increase, reaching 97.81. Bloomberg’s dollar index (BBDXY) rose by 0.23 percent to 1,201.26 units.

The bond market also provided insight, with the yield on the 10-year US bond at 4.07 percent, while the 10-year Mexican bond remains at a higher 8.72 percent.

Simultaneously occurring, some global currencies have experienced depreciation, including the Russian ruble (-1.31 percent), the Indonesian Rupiah (-1.04 percent), the Hungarian Forint (-0.56 percent), the Polish Zloty (-0.48 percent), the philippines Peso (-0.48 percent) and the Romanian Leu (-0.47 percent).

## Summary of teh 2025 Economic Package for Mexico

Unveiling the 2025 Economic Package: Key Details and Implications According to El Financiero

Published: 2025/09/10 08:46:33 | author: Daniel foster | Website: archyde.com

Fiscal Strategy & Growth Projections

El Financiero’s in-depth coverage of the 2025 Paquete Económico (Economic Package) reveals a cautiously optimistic outlook for Mexico’s economy, prioritizing fiscal consolidation alongside targeted investments in infrastructure and social programs. The package, presented to Congress on September 8th, 2025, forecasts a GDP growth of 2.5% – 3.0% for the coming year, a slight increase from the projected 2.2% for 2024. This growth is largely predicated on continued strength in the US economy and sustained foreign direct investment (FDI). Key elements of the fiscal strategy include:

Revenue Projections: Anticipated government revenue is estimated at 5.8 trillion pesos, a 6.5% increase year-over-year. This increase is attributed to improved tax collection efficiency and moderate growth in economic activity. Focus remains on combating tax evasion and broadening the tax base.

Expenditure Allocation: Total government expenditure is budgeted at 6.2 trillion pesos, representing a 5.0% increase.A notable portion is allocated to infrastructure projects, particularly within the Tren Maya extension and the Corredor Interoceánico.

Inflation Target: The Banco de México (Banxico) maintains its inflation target of 3.0% +/- one percentage point. The package acknowledges ongoing global inflationary pressures but anticipates these will moderate throughout 2025. Mexico inflation rate remains a key concern.

Exchange Rate Assumption: The official exchange rate assumption is set at 17.5 pesos per US dollar. This is a crucial factor influencing import costs and overall economic stability. Peso exchange rate fluctuations will be closely monitored.

Infrastructure Investment: The Cornerstone of Growth

A defining feature of the 2025 Economic Package is the ample investment in infrastructure. El Financiero highlights the government’s commitment to completing key projects, aiming to stimulate economic activity and improve logistical efficiency.

1. Tren Maya Expansion: An additional 400 billion pesos are earmarked for extending the Tren Maya railway network,connecting more regions in southeastern Mexico and boosting tourism. this is expected to create thousands of jobs in the construction and hospitality sectors.
2. Corredor Interoceánico: Investment in the Corredor Interoceánico project, designed to facilitate trade between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, will receive 250 billion pesos. This includes upgrades to ports, railways, and highways.
3. Energy Infrastructure: The package allocates 150 billion pesos to strengthening energy infrastructure, with a focus on renewable energy projects and modernizing existing power plants. Renewable energy Mexico is a growing sector.
4. Water infrastructure: Addressing water scarcity, particularly in northern Mexico, receives 100 billion pesos for projects focused on water conservation, desalination, and improved distribution networks.

Social Programs & Welfare Spending

The 2025 economic Package maintains a strong emphasis on social programs, reflecting the current administration’s commitment to reducing inequality. El Financiero reports that welfare spending will account for approximately 20% of the total budget.

Pensions for the Elderly: The Pensión para el Bienestar de las Personas Adultas Mayores program will continue to provide monthly payments to eligible seniors, with a planned increase in the benefit amount.

Youth Employment programs: Funding for youth employment programs, such as apprenticeships and job training initiatives, will be expanded to address high youth unemployment rates.

Scholarships for Students: scholarship programs for students from low-income families will be maintained, ensuring access to education for vulnerable populations.

Healthcare Access: Efforts to expand access to healthcare services, particularly in rural areas, will continue through the IMSS-Bienestar program. Mexico healthcare system improvements are a priority.

Tax Reforms & Revenue Enhancement

While the 2025 Economic Package doesn’t propose sweeping tax reforms, it includes several measures aimed at enhancing revenue collection and improving tax compliance.

Combating Tax Evasion: Increased resources will be allocated to the Servicio de Administración Tributaria (SAT) to combat tax evasion and illicit financial flows.

Digital Services Tax: A revised digital services tax is proposed, targeting large multinational technology companies operating in Mexico. This is expected to generate additional revenue.

Simplified Tax Regime: The government plans to simplify the tax regime for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to encourage formalization and compliance. Mexico SMEs are a vital part of the economy.

Fiscal Incentives for Investment: targeted fiscal incentives are offered to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) in strategic sectors, such as manufacturing and technology.

Implications for Key Sectors

El Financiero’s analysis suggests the 2025 Economic Package will have varying implications for different sectors of the Mexican economy.

Construction: The infrastructure boom will substantially benefit the construction sector, creating demand for materials, equipment, and labor.

Tourism: The expansion of the Tren Maya and investment in tourism infrastructure are expected to boost the tourism sector, particularly in southeastern Mexico.

Manufacturing: Fiscal incentives and improved infrastructure will support the manufacturing sector, attracting investment and increasing exports. Mexico manufacturing is a key driver of growth.

energy: Investment in renewable energy projects will drive growth in the renewable energy sector,while modernization of existing power plants will improve energy efficiency.

Financial Services: Increased economic activity and government spending will benefit the financial services sector,boosting lending and investment. Mexico financial sector stability is crucial.

The continued investment in the Tren Maya provides a clear example of the package’s intended impact. In the Yucatan Peninsula, local businesses are already reporting increased demand for services related to tourism and construction. Real estate values in areas along the railway route have also risen, demonstrating the potential for regional economic progress. However, concerns remain regarding the environmental impact and equitable distribution of benefits.

Explore Investment Opportunities: Identify potential investment opportunities in sectors benefiting from government spending, such as construction, tourism, and renewable energy.

Seek Fiscal Incentives: Research available fiscal incentives and tax breaks for investments in strategic sectors.

Enhance Tax Compliance: Ensure full compliance with tax regulations to avoid penalties and take advantage of potential benefits.

Monitor Exchange Rate fluctuations: Closely monitor exchange rate fluctuations and implement strategies to mitigate currency risk.

Invest in Workforce Development: Invest in training and development programs to prepare the workforce for the demands of a growing economy.

Data Sources & Further Reading

El Financiero: https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/ (Official source for detailed analysis)

Banco de México (banxico): https://www.banxico.org.mx/ (Monetary policy and economic data)

* Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público (SHCP): [https://wwwgob[https://wwwgob