Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) threatened to block oil shipments from the Middle East if attacks from the United States and Israel continue, escalating tensions that have already sent shockwaves through global financial markets. The warning came as President Donald Trump vowed a forceful response should Iran act on its threat to disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies.
“We are the ones who will determine the complete of the war,” a spokesperson for the IRGC stated, according to Iranian state media. Trump responded with a stark warning delivered via a Truth Social post: “If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far.”
The immediate crisis stems from a series of U.S. And Israeli strikes across Iran that began in late February, targeting nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and, more recently, domestic energy supplies. An attack on an oil refinery in Tehran has left the city shrouded in black smoke, prompting a warning from the World Health Organization about potential contamination of food, water, and air.
Iran’s U.N. Ambassador has reported at least 1,332 Iranian civilians have been killed and thousands wounded since the commencement of the strikes. The conflict has already effectively halted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to filling storage facilities and production halts.
The appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader on Monday initially fueled market anxieties, sending oil prices surging as high as 29% to levels not seen since 2022, before a subsequent dip. Brent crude futures fell more than 10% on Tuesday, whereas global stock markets similarly experienced a rebound following Trump’s prediction of a quick end to the conflict and reports of potential easing of sanctions on Russian energy.
The Trump administration is considering multiple options to address potential oil shortages, including waiving sanctions on “some countries” – a move that could mean further easing restrictions on Russian oil – releasing oil from strategic reserves, or restricting U.S. Exports. This potential shift in policy regarding Russian energy could complicate existing efforts to punish Moscow for its ongoing war in Ukraine.
The escalating conflict is also impacting regional stability. Turkey reported that its NATO air defenses intercepted a ballistic missile fired from Iran that entered Turkish airspace, marking the second such incident during the conflict. Iran has yet to comment on the report. Israel’s military has expanded its campaign to include attacks in central Iran and the Lebanese capital, Beirut, following cross-border fire from the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia.
The humanitarian consequences of the conflict are also growing. Australia has granted humanitarian visas to five Iranian women’s soccer team players who sought asylum fearing persecution in their home nation. Canberra has also pledged to send military surveillance aircraft to the Middle East and missiles to the United Arab Emirates to bolster their defenses against potential attacks from Iran.
Recent strikes have targeted key figures within Iran’s military establishment. Hossein Salami, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Mohammad Bagheri, chief of staff of Iran’s Armed Forces, and Gholamali Rashid, commander of Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, were all killed in earlier attacks, according to reports. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the IRGC Aerospace Forces, was also reportedly killed. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has appointed replacements for these positions, including Abdolrahim Mousavi as chief of staff and Ahmad Vahidi as head of the IRGC.
The IRGC, established as a key instrument of Iranian power, is considered by many to be the main impediment to political change within the country. The organization wields significant military, political, and economic influence, and has been instrumental in suppressing dissent and projecting Iranian power abroad. Israel has previously targeted IRGC commanders, including Hossein Salami’s predecessor, in prior conflicts.