Syria’s Sweida Crisis: A Powder Keg for Regional Escalation
The situation in Sweida, Syria, isn’t just another localized conflict; it’s a rapidly escalating crisis with the potential to draw in multiple actors and ignite a wider regional conflict. Over four days of clashes, fueled by a complex web of local grievances and political maneuvering, have created a volatile situation where a spillover of violence is increasingly likely – and Israel is now directly involved, a move that’s already drawing condemnation and raising the stakes dramatically.
The Roots of Conflict in Sweida
The recent unrest in Sweida is hardly a surprise. This is at least the third major outbreak of violence since the decline of the Assad regime’s authority. The core issue stems from a power vacuum and the Syrian government’s unwillingness to accept an autonomous Druze region armed with militias. This is perceived by the Druze community as suppression, while Sunni Arab factions aligned with the government view them as a potential threat to stability. Exploiting these tensions are religious extremist groups, further complicating the landscape.
Historically, the Druze in Syria largely sided with the Assad government during the civil war, a pragmatic alliance of self-preservation. However, with the weakening of central control, they’ve increasingly sought greater autonomy, a goal Israel has tacitly supported. This support, while understandable given shared strategic interests, has now become a major point of contention.
Israel’s Dilemma: Protecting the Druze and Avoiding Wider War
Israel has repeatedly vowed to protect the Druze community, both within its borders and across the Syrian frontier. However, this commitment is proving far more difficult to execute than initially anticipated. Protests by Druze citizens of Israel, some attempting to cross into Syria to aid their brethren, have added another layer of complexity. The IDF has been forced to reinforce its border units and prevent infiltration attempts, leading to direct confrontations.
Israel’s intervention, including potential targeting of figures like Ahmed al-Sharaa, a Syrian commander, has drawn criticism from regional powers. While the US has expressed concerns and dispatched envoy Tom Barrack to de-escalate the situation, words alone are unlikely to be enough. The images of Druze attempting to enter Syria from Israel, coupled with the potential for Israeli airstrikes, create a dangerous feedback loop.
The Growing Risk of Spillover
For over a decade, Israel has managed the fallout from the Syrian conflict, operating within Syria to counter Iranian influence and maintain a buffer zone. This has inevitably led to direct contact with Syrian civilians, including instances of violence, such as the 2015 lynching of two Syrians mistakenly believed to be extremists. The current situation, however, is different. The open attempts by Israeli Druze to cross the border, and the potential for a larger-scale military intervention, significantly raise the risk of a broader conflict.
The Syrian government’s response has been equally problematic. Assad’s army, depleted and largely ineffective, relies heavily on the mobilization of armed militias – a “levée en masse” approach that often incorporates individuals with questionable allegiances. This reliance on untrained and potentially extremist fighters exacerbates the cycle of violence: Druze fear attacks, ambush government forces, prompting Israeli airstrikes, and so on. Breaking this cycle is proving increasingly difficult.
A Demilitarized Zone: A Failed Strategy?
Israel’s stated goal of a demilitarized southern Syria has inadvertently created a power vacuum, allowing armed groups like the Druze militias in Sweida to flourish. Without a strong, legitimate governing force, these groups fill the void, leading to further instability. The current crisis demonstrates the limitations of relying on a purely security-focused approach without addressing the underlying political and economic grievances.
The situation in Sweida highlights a critical challenge for Israel: deciding between further escalation and a strategic retreat. While airstrikes might offer a short-term tactical advantage, they are unlikely to resolve the fundamental issues driving the conflict. Allowing the border to become chaotic, however, is equally unacceptable.
Syria is at a crossroads in Sweida. Containing the violence and forging a path forward will require a multifaceted approach that addresses the legitimate concerns of the Druze community, counters extremist influence, and strengthens the capacity of the Syrian government to provide security and governance. Without such an approach, the powder keg in Sweida threatens to ignite a wider regional conflagration. What steps will regional and international actors take to prevent further escalation and secure a lasting peace in southern Syria?
Explore more insights on Middle East and North Africa in the Council on Foreign Relations’ analysis.
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