Vietnam’s Rising Nationalism: A Warning Sign for Businesses and Geopolitics

A seemingly small act of defiance – Vietnamese schoolchildren flipping off the flag of South Vietnam in a Hanoi museum – reveals a powerful and rapidly evolving trend. It’s a trend that goes far beyond historical grievances, signaling a surge in Vietnamese nationalism with significant implications for foreign investment, regional stability, and the country’s delicate balancing act between the US and China.

The “Cali” Flag and the Echoes of the Past

The yellow flag with three red stripes, a symbol of the former Republic of Vietnam, remains a potent and officially discouraged emblem of dissent. Its recent, unexpected display at the Vietnam Military History Museum sparked a viral backlash, not from the government directly, but from young Vietnamese citizens themselves. The flag, often referred to online as the “Cali” flag – a nod to the large Vietnamese diaspora in California – represents for many overseas Vietnamese a lost nation and resistance to communism. However, within Vietnam, it’s increasingly viewed as a symbol of American imperialism and a challenge to the ruling Communist Party.

Beyond the Museum Walls: A Broader Nationalist Surge

This incident isn’t isolated. Over the past year, Vietnam has witnessed a marked increase in nationalist sentiment, often directed at perceived American influence. A U.S.-backed university in Ho Chi Minh City faced accusations of foreign interference, and a Vietnamese-American singer, Myra Tran, was subjected to online harassment after footage surfaced of her attending a memorial service for an anti-communist activist. These events demonstrate a growing sensitivity to anything perceived as a threat to Vietnamese sovereignty or national identity.

The Government’s Role: Control and Contradiction

Vietnam’s one-party rule provides fertile ground for cultivating nationalism. The government tightly controls education and media, suppressing dissenting voices and actively shaping public narratives. Since 2017, “Force 47,” a military unit dedicated to online content policing, has been employed to scrub anti-state content, and a 2018 cybersecurity law grants authorities broad powers to demand takedowns from social media platforms. This creates a one-sided information environment where views challenging the official line are often met with ostracism and even imprisonment.

Interestingly, the government’s attempts to suppress nationalist fervor haven’t always been successful. Banning posts about the South Vietnam flag, for example, did little to quell the displays of defiance at the museum. This suggests a deeper, more organic force at play – a rising generation grappling with their nation’s history and identity.

The Rise of Digital Nationalism and its Risks

The internet, despite government efforts to control it, has become a key battleground for shaping nationalist narratives. Young Vietnamese are increasingly expressing their views online, often fueled by disinformation and a sense of national pride. This digital nationalism presents both opportunities and risks. While it can foster social cohesion, it also creates an environment ripe for extremism and intolerance. The targeting of individuals like Myra Tran, labeled as “anti-Vietnam” and “Cali,” illustrates the potential for online mobs to inflict real-world harm.

This trend is particularly concerning for businesses. Foreign companies and Vietnamese citizens with ties to the US are facing increased scrutiny and pressure to demonstrate their patriotism. As one entertainment writer in Ho Chi Minh City noted, artists are now “nervous and trying to be more careful,” fearing the wrath of “cancel culture.” This climate of fear could discourage foreign investment and hinder the return of skilled Vietnamese professionals from overseas – a demographic the government actively seeks to attract.

A Balancing Act: US Relations and Chinese Influence

Vietnam’s growing nationalism also complicates its geopolitical balancing act. While the country seeks to maintain strong economic ties with the United States, it also recognizes the growing influence of China in the region. The government is likely wary of allowing anti-American sentiment to escalate to the point where it jeopardizes its relationship with Washington, its largest trade partner. However, it also needs to appease nationalist voices within its own population. This delicate balancing act will become increasingly challenging in the years to come.

The government’s response to the Fulbright University controversy offers a glimpse into this dynamic. While publicly defending the university to maintain US relations, some state media outlets and online bots propagated accusations against it, hinting at internal divisions within the party. This suggests that the government is attempting to manage nationalist sentiment while simultaneously protecting its strategic interests.

Looking Ahead: Implications for Investors and Policymakers

The surge in Vietnamese nationalism isn’t a fleeting phenomenon. It’s a long-term trend driven by historical grievances, economic anxieties, and the increasing influence of social media. For businesses operating in Vietnam, this means understanding the cultural sensitivities and navigating the complex political landscape with caution. Demonstrating a commitment to Vietnamese values and contributing to the country’s economic development will be crucial for maintaining a positive reputation.

Policymakers, too, need to recognize the potential implications of this trend. Supporting initiatives that promote critical thinking, media literacy, and cross-cultural understanding could help to counter the spread of disinformation and foster a more tolerant society. Maintaining open communication channels with the Vietnamese government and engaging in constructive dialogue on issues of mutual concern will also be essential for preserving regional stability. The Council on Foreign Relations provides in-depth analysis of Vietnam’s geopolitical position.

What are your predictions for the future of nationalism in Southeast Asia? Share your thoughts in the comments below!