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US Chief of Staff General Mark Milley stressed on Wednesday that US support had not diminished, but said kyiv was in a good position to start talks as its soldiers managed to stand up to Russia.
He said that the Russians were now strengthening their hold on 20% of Ukrainian territory and that the front lines from the city of Kharviv to that of Kherson were stabilizing.
“The probability of a Ukrainian military victory, consisting in driving the Russians out of all of Ukraine, including […] Crimea, the likelihood of this happening soon is not high, militarily speaking,” he said.
“There can be a political solution where politically the Russians pull out, it’s possible,” Milley added.
No American pressure
The White House reiterated on Friday that only Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was in a position to approve the opening of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, rejecting any notion of US pressure on kyiv.
“We also said that it was up to President Zelensky to say if and when he would be ready for negotiations and what form those negotiations would take,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters. .
“No one in the United States is encouraging, insisting or pushing him to the negotiating table,” he said.
But earlier this month, Volodymyr Zelensky said he was no longer demanding Vladimir Putin’s departure to start negotiations, a change of course that came after pressure from the White House.
The example of the First World War
But at the same time the executive did not contradict the point of view of General Mark Milley, who indicated last week in New York that Ukraine had deplored 100,000 dead and wounded on the battlefield – a close toll of that estimated for the Russian army — and 40,000 civilian casualties.
These balance sheets could still climb if Ukraine persisted in fighting to try to recover the pre-2014 borders, Mr. Milley further suggested.
He notably compared the situation to the First World War, when the two sides were bogged down in a conflict that claimed a million lives between August and December 1914, with a stabilized front line and a refusal to hold peace negotiations. . Four years later, at the end of 1918, the death of 20 million people was mourned.
“So when there is an opportunity to negotiate, when peace can be achieved, seize it,” he said.
A diplomatic way
Charles Kupchan, a professor at Georgetown University, said the Biden administration is probably trying to make sure the door remains open to negotiations, and that Mr Milley is simply already “a little more forward-looking”.
“I don’t think it’s premature. I think it’s prudent. The Russians and the Ukrainians have to keep the possibility that there is a diplomatic channel,” he said.
And it is also a signal for Volodymyr Zelensky, whose statements are testing the patience of some allies.
“Zelensky, understandably, gets a little heated and says things that allies don’t necessarily like,” Kupchan says.
He adds that the White House is seeking to preempt any pressure from European allies to end the war before kyiv is ready.
“The Biden administration wants to move slowly, to ensure that the transatlantic consensus remains strong.”
Tamer Al-Nahhas, agent of Mostafa Shalaby, Enppi’s recently transferred to Zamalek, confirmed that the Petroleum Club made it difficult for the player to transfer negotiations to Al-Ahly during the past summer transfers.
Al-Nahhas said in statements to Radio Greater Cairo: “The desire decided the transfer of Mustafa Shalaby to Zamalek in light of the negotiations of Al-Masry, (Zamalek, Zamalek and Al-Ahly Ahli).”
He added, “The player is 27 years old, so his choice of Al-Ahly and Zamalek is greater than the chances of choosing another team, in addition to the keenness of the President of Zamalek to sign Mustafa Shalaby.”
And he continued, “Ayman Al-Sharei, head of Enppi, is exhausted in negotiations, and negotiations with Zamalek ended yesterday at 11.30 pm, although we have been negotiating for 10 days, and I am the player’s agent.”
And he continued, “The player’s desire was to join Al-Ahly? We generally do not negotiate with two clubs at once, we negotiate with only one team, and at first we only had an offer from Al-Ahly two months ago.”
He continued, “There was direct negotiation between the two club heads, and the initial numbers from Ayman Al-Sharei’s were large and, in my view, were inappropriate… He asked for 30 million pounds, and this number was difficult to achieve.”
And he added, “We were negotiating within half of this number, and Al-Ahly offered 12 million pounds. Al-Ahly was sticking to Shalaby, but of course other circumstances occurred, such as changing the coach, and Al-Ahly’s focus on the inclusion of foreign players.”
Tamer Al-Nahhas concluded his radio statements: “Zamalek entered the negotiations after that, and Mustafa Shalaby decided his position and refused to wait until January.”
Press Secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov said that there are no agreed formats for communication between Vladimir Putin and his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron. However, the Kremlin spokesman noted that, if necessary, the conversation could take place.
“According to Macron, there are no agreed formats of communication so far. On the other hand, they can appear very quickly if necessary,” Peskov said. According to him, yesterday the Russian president also did not have any telephone conversations with foreign leaders.
The day before, on September 20, Mr. Macron announced his intention to hold telephone conversations with Vladimir Putin in the near future. After the start of the military operation in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin and Emmanuel Macron regularly called each other. Basically, the initiator of the negotiations was Mr. Macron. The last time a conversation between the leaders of France and Russia took place on 11 September.
The death of 22-year-old Iranian Mahsa Amini, who was detained by the vice police, stirred up Iran. A powerful wave of protests swept across the country against harsh religious laws and the dominance of the clergy. The explosion of discontent came at a time of political uncertainty in Iran, sparked by rumors about the health of 83-year-old supreme leader Ali Khamenei and discussions about the candidacy of his potential successor. The situation is aggravated by the fading prospects for the removal of Western sanctions from Iran due to the likely breakdown of negotiations on a nuclear deal.
On Sunday, Iranian newspapers representing conservative and reformist media came out with radically different editorials. The conservative press focused on the participation on Saturday of Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei – amid rumors of his serious illness – in the mourning ceremony of Arbain (dedicated to the fortieth day after the tragic death of Imam Hussein in the 7th century, takes place every year in Iran and Iraq in accordance with Islamic lunar calendar). The reformists devoted central publications to the story of a 22-year-old girl Mahsa Amini from Iranian Kurdistan.
Mahsa Amini arrived in Tehran last week and was detained by the vice police as she was leaving the subway with her brother. The reason for the detention was the improperly worn hijab, the wearing of which is mandatory for all women in Iran after the 1979 Islamic revolution.
Recently, Iranian girls began to allow themselves not to cover their hair completely, and Mahsa Amini was no exception. Iranian security forces released a statement alleging that Ms. Amini suddenly collapsed from a heart attack in a detention center while undergoing hijab training and was taken to the hospital where she fell into a coma. On Friday, official reports of her death appeared. According to the media close to the Iranian authorities, the girl suffered from epilepsy and other diseases. However, her family denies this information. They believe that the death was the result of a beating in the detention center.
The funeral of the girl resulted in protests in her hometown of Sekkez, as well as in the administrative center of Iranian Kurdistan, the city of Senendej. More than 30 people were injured in clashes with security forces, according to Iranian human rights organizations. Protesters tore down posters of Ali Khamenei and chanted “Death to the dictator!” and “Shame on you!”.
Oppositional Iranian media also reported on a protest rally held on Sunday at Tehran University. The students were holding posters in Farsi and Kurdish, including those with the words “I don’t want to die!” and “Your blood will not be trampled!”, as well as “Women, life and freedom.”
A wave of indignation literally blew up the Iranian-speaking segment of the Internet. More than 2.5 million posts on Twitter and several tens of thousands on Telegram are devoted to the history of Mahsa Amini.
Many people remember other women tortured in Iranian prisons and say that everyone could have been in the place of the deceased girl. “The government is using heretical violence and cruelty against women, unseen even under the dictatorships of the Middle Ages,” tweeted prominent Iranian journalist Sara Masoumi, who usually writes about Iranian diplomacy and foreign policy. Many say that the situation in the country is worse than under the Taliban in Afghanistan (the Taliban movement is officially banned in the Russian Federation.— “uh”).
Given the degree of outrage in Iranian society, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi ordered an urgent official investigation into the causes of Mahsa Amini’s death. However, the intensity of passions has not subsided yet.
On Sunday, Iranian media reported that the situation in Sekkez is still tense, mobile communications are intermittent, although the Internet, which was disconnected the day before, is functioning again. A number of Iranian Kurdish parties and organizations have called for a general strike, as well as mourning for the death of Mahsa Amini. They were joined by Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last Shah of Iran, who lives in exile. He called to honor not only the memory of the deceased girl, but “and all the dead children of Iran.”
The death of Mahsa Amini also caused a wide reaction abroad. In particular, it was commented on by US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and US Special Envoy for Iran Robert Malley, who accused Tehran of yet another violation of human rights.
The history of Mahsa Amini coincided with a period of political instability in Iran.
In recent weeks, the state of health of 83-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who has practically ceased to appear in public and on September 6 missed a meeting of the Assembly of Experts, held twice a year with his obligatory presence, has been actively discussed. American newspaper on Friday The New York Times reported that the supreme leader canceled all meetings after undergoing surgery and continuing high fever. Seven years ago it was reported that Ali Khamenei was suffering from cancer. Against this background, there is a lot of discussion about who will succeed him as Iran’s supreme leader, which he has held since 1989. The two most frequently mentioned candidates are incumbent President Ebrahim Raisi and Khamenei’s son, 53-year-old Mojtaba. It is assumed that the future leader will be chosen by the Assembly of Experts, but there is no clear practice, given that the election procedure was carried out only once, in 1989. On Saturday, Ali Khamenei nevertheless appeared in public during the Arbaeen ceremony, but this did not remove questions about the future of Iran. Moreover, the fate of the country is very vague – the hope for the lifting of Western sanctions, associated with negotiations around the Iranian nuclear program, has practically melted away. The US believes that Tehran has put forward unacceptable conditions for the revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which would limit Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions.
“Given that Raisi took the presidency at a very unstable time for Iran (the nuclear deal has not been restored, sanctions are being tightened, the inflation rate is over 50%), it can be assumed that the presidency has become something like “political suicide” for him. And although the situation of the hereditary transfer of power of the supreme leader may cause discontent, but given the close ties of Mojtaba Khamenei with the security forces and the military sector, in particular with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), his candidacy may be a convenient option that guarantees the stability of the regime, in where the military and security services will retain their advantages,” Iranist Polina Vasilenko told Kommersant.
“There is no guarantee that the transition of power after Khamenei will lead to positive changes in Iran. After all, the IRGC has already paved the way for a safe transition so that the current political elite remains in place,” Hamidreza Azizi, a researcher at the German Institute for International Affairs and Security, told Kommersant. According to him, all this reduces the hopes of Iranian society for change, both political and economic. “Mahsa Amini’s death sparked an outcry unlike any seen in Iran since 2009, when another young Iranian, Neda Agha-Soltan, was gunned down by security forces during protests. But now literally everyone felt themselves in the place of Mahsa Amini. You do not need to go to protests to become a victim, ”explained the expert. He stressed that the authorities were simply forced to take control of the investigation into the death of Mahsa Amini in order to calm the situation, although people do not believe they will hear the truth. “But even if now the wave of protests subsides, each new incident will cause more and more frustration among the Iranians. Having lost hope for reforms, they will no longer be afraid,” Mr. Azizi added.
Against the backdrop of ongoing hostilities in Ukraine, the West demanded that Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić expedite the resolution of the Kosovo problem and decide on which side of the curtain between Russia and the West Serbia is located. To do this, Belgrade was asked to accept a “new basis” for negotiations with Pristina, which would lead to a “recognition of reality” – the existence of an independent Kosovo. The current situation will be discussed at a special meeting on September 13 by the Serbian Parliament. With details – the correspondent of “Kommersant” in the Balkans Gennady Sysoev.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic himself announced the demands of the West after a meeting of the country’s Security Council on Saturday. The Security Council was urgently convened to consider the results of the talks held the day before in Belgrade between the Serbian president and the EU representative in the Balkans Miroslav Lajcak and the emissaries of German Chancellor Jens Plettner and French President Emmanuel Bonn. The talks touched on one topic – the normalization of relations between Serbia and Kosovo.
According to Aleksandar Vučić, he was actually required to “urgently solve” the problem with Kosovo. “The Europeans told me the general position of the West that in the current war in Ukraine, Europe does not need new conflicts, and therefore it is important to reach a solution as soon as possible (of the Kosovo problem.—“uh”),” said the President of Serbia. According to him, the West also needs this in order to knock out of the hands of the Kremlin the argument about the Kosovo precedent, which it uses in relation to Crimea. “After that, they would have told Vladimir Putin: if Crimea and Ukraine agree (on recognizing Crimea as Russian), then it is possible, otherwise it is not,” the Serbian president explained and added: “Serbia has become a collateral victim of the conflict of great powers.”
In order to resolve the Kosovo problem as soon as possible, Belgrade was asked to adopt a “new basis” for negotiations with Pristina. According to Aleksandar Vučić, negotiations on the new formula would lead to “recognition of what the West considers to be reality”, that is, the existence of an independent Kosovo.
Finally, as the Serbian leader stated, Serbia was required to decide on which “side of the curtain” between Russia and the West it is located.
“I was told that Putin has lowered the curtain and now it remains for everyone to choose a side – either the one where the economy does not exist, or the side of success where they are,” Alexander Vučić outlined his conversation with three Western emissaries.
“A clear signal has been sent to the President of Serbia: either he takes the side of the European Union, condemns Russian aggression and fully joins the sanctions, or opposes the EU,” says Naim Leo Beshiri, head of the Belgrade Institute for European Studies. recall that 75% of Serbian exports go to the EU”.
The arrival of three Western emissaries in Belgrade at once testifies to the clear intention of the EU and the US not only to speed up the resolution of the Kosovo problem, but also to win Serbia over to their side in the current geopolitical confrontation.
The strengthening of the team of Western mediators in the Balkans (so far the US, EU, UK, Slovenia and Greece have had special representatives in the region) occurred after a week ago, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron sent identical letters to the leaders of Serbia and Kosovo. Calling the current moment “defining for the security of Europe and the stability of the Balkans”, the heads of Germany and France recalled that “full normalization between Kosovo and Serbia is of key importance for the region” and called for “maximum determination and readiness to make difficult decisions.” Olaf Scholz and Emmanuel Macron announced the appointment of their special representatives for the Serbian-Kosovo settlement, who join the EU emissary to the Balkans, Miroslav Lajcak. Just a few days later, the Eurotroika visited Pristina and Belgrade, after which such important statements by the Serbian president followed.
Relations with Kosovo will be the subject of a special meeting of the Serbian Parliament scheduled for Tuesday. It is possible that the discussion will continue on Wednesday. Aleksandar Vučić said that he would be present in the parliament during the entire session and would personally answer all the questions of the deputies. Many regional experts, however, regarded the holding of a special meeting of the Serbian Assembly as an attempt by the President of Serbia to share with the parliament the responsibility for making the coming “difficult decisions” on Kosovo.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky discussed the prospects for ending the Russian-Ukrainian conflict with United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Thursday, Ukrainian news agency Ukrinform reported.
In a joint press conference after their meeting in Lviv in western Ukraine, he said his country was ready to start peace talks with Moscow only after the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine. Ukraine.
For his part, Erdogan promised that Turkey would provide all necessary support for the resumption of peace talks. These could be based on the agreements reached in March in Istanbul, he said, adding that his country was willing to play a mediating role.
During this press conference, Mr. Guterres called for the demilitarization of the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhia, in southern Ukraine. This plant, one of the largest in Europe, has been under the control of Russian military forces since the beginning of March.
“Military equipment and personnel must be removed from the plant. Any further deployment of forces or weapons into the plant must be avoided,” he demanded.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict began on February 24. Ukrainian and Russian negotiators held the latest round of face-to-face peace talks in Istanbul on March 29.
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