The political landscape in Yemen is increasingly overshadowed by security concerns, with military affairs now dictating the course of power in the southern governorates. Recent developments suggest that any lasting political arrangements will hinge on resolving issues of security control and achieving a unified military command. This shift comes amid a growing rift between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, both key players in shaping southern Yemen, and threatens to destabilize the region further.
For years, a complex security structure has evolved across southern Yemen, encompassing both official state units and those formed during the ongoing conflict. Many of these formations received support from the UAE, including the tens of thousands of fighters associated with the Southern Transitional Council (STC). While the STC declared its dissolution in Hadhramaut and al-Mahra on January 3, 2026, the underlying security dynamics remain deeply fractured and uneven across the country’s governorates.
The Evolving Security Structure in Southern Yemen
The situation in Aden, Yemen’s temporary capital, exemplifies this complexity. Security agencies operate within a layered structure, with some units formerly linked to the STC seeing their personnel and weapons dispersed, while others have been rebranded or reassigned. However, established networks of influence persist, and shifts in leadership or camp locations are more indicative of power rebalancing than a definitive resolution of security concerns. This pattern extends, to varying degrees, to Lahij, Abyan, Dhale, Shabwah, and Hadhramaut, where the central government’s authority remains inconsistent and coordination with emergent security formations is often lacking.
The most pressing challenge currently is the integration of these diverse military and security forces into the Ministries of Defence, and Interior. The government aims to end the existence of parallel security authorities, but faces significant obstacles. These include differing funding sources for various units, conflicting political loyalties, concerns among commanders about losing local influence, and the diverse composition of these forces. Integration is proceeding gradually, prioritizing redeployment and restructuring over decisive measures that could potentially trigger renewed conflict.
Regional Tensions and International Concerns
The government in Aden faces a delicate balancing act: establishing security authority without reigniting internal strife. Achieving a state monopoly on the apply of force requires broad political consensus, regional support, and international backing. Any hasty actions risk escalating clashes, particularly given existing political and regional sensitivities, and the potential for the Saudi-Emirati dispute to spill over into further confrontation.
Saudi Arabia views Yemen as strategically vital to its national security, seeking a stable state along its southern border. The growing disagreement between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, particularly following Yemen’s request for the withdrawal of Emirati forces, has become a significant factor in the crisis. Saudi Arabia has accused the UAE of continuing to support the STC and consolidating its influence on the ground. Recent analysis highlights the direct impact of this rift on the balance of power and stability in the region.
Yemen’s situation is also intertwined with broader regional dynamics, including Red Sea security, maritime routes, competition for influence in the Horn of Africa, and tensions extending from Sudan to Somalia to the Gulf. International actors, particularly the United States, are keen to maintain stability in Yemen, fearing that a security collapse could trigger intra-Gulf conflict, disrupt international shipping, create opportunities for new armed groups, or allow the Houthi movement to exploit the situation.
Hadhramaut, Yemen’s largest governorate, covering approximately one-third of the country and holding nearly 80% of its oil reserves and valuable minerals, remains a key area of focus. Control of this territory was previously divided between the STC and the Yemeni Government, a division known as Wadi Hadhramaut (Hadhramaut Valley).
Looking Ahead: Consolidation and Integration
In the coming phase, the government is likely to prioritize consolidating security control in Aden and other southern governorates, including Hadhramaut, while gradually integrating military units and maintaining political balances to prevent renewed conflict. The success of these efforts will determine whether Yemen moves towards gradual stability or experiences another period of shifting power centers. The central question remains: who ultimately possesses the capacity to impose security on the ground, especially as some actors continue to push the Southern Transitional Council towards actions that could reignite the conflict?
The path forward for Yemen remains precarious, dependent on navigating complex internal dynamics and regional tensions. Continued efforts towards security consolidation and military integration will be crucial in determining the country’s future.
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