Russia invades Ukraine

Relations between China and the European Union (EU) have been tense since 2021, including reciprocal sanctions and warming relations between Lithuania and Taiwan. With Ukraine facing an existential crisis of aggression by Russia, a close ally of China, the development of bilateral relations will face more challenges.

China-Europe relations remain tense amid Ukraine crisis

China originally planned to solve two hot potatoes that affect the development of China-EU relations this year. One is to promote the signing of the China-EU investment agreement that is currently frozen for review, and the other is to overcome the “Lithuanian factor”. However, following Russia invaded Ukraine, Beijing has always refused to condemn Russia’s aggression. Foreign media believe that this will make it difficult for Europe to trust Beijing and become an obstacle to the restart of China-EU bilateral relations.

The Diplomat, an English-language online current affairs magazine, pointed out that with Russia’s continued invasion of Ukraine, it is worth noting that China’s stance on the crisis should also be examined in the context of Sino-European relations.

China’s relationship with Europe was already facing major challenges long before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and adding new challenges will only make it harder for Europe to trust Beijing and make any efforts to improve bilateral relations more difficult.

China-Europe relations are the most difficult since 1989

Last year, China faced its toughest relationship with Europe since 1989. Among the factors are mutual sanctions over human rights issues such as Xinjiang, which have pushed relations to new lows and led the European Parliment to suspend a review of the China-EU investment agreement in May last year.

In addition, Lithuania announced last year that it had withdrawn from the “17+1 cooperation mechanism” led by China. At the same time, it strengthened relations with Taiwan and strongly welcomed the establishment of a representative office in Taiwan. It crossed Beijing’s political “red line” and was subjected to trade retaliation by China. But the EU backed Lithuania, arguing that Beijing’s economic coercion had threatened the integrity of the bloc’s single market, and appealed to the World Trade Organization (WTO) earlier this year.

It is difficult for China to gain the trust of Central and Eastern European countries

After Russia launched a full-scale invasion, allies such as the European Union and the United States imposed sanctions on Russian financial institutions, companies and Putin, as well as Russian oligarchs; in addition, dozens of European countries, including countries such as Germany and Finland, which have never shipped weapons to conflict zones , both launched military aid to Kyiv and strengthened the armed Ukraine to resist Russian aggression.

It is understandable that Central and Eastern European countries, which in recent years have been more concerned regarding the threat of Russian expansion, have expressed the strongest condemnation of Moscow’s aggression and expected the harshest sanctions once morest the Kremlin, diplomats said. The Lithuanian president even proposed that Russia should be expelled from international organizations such as the G20.

And while China is reluctant to see a Russian-Ukrainian war break out, among other reasons it might hurt its infrastructure around the world and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI); Beijing did not explicitly condemn Russia following the Ukraine invasion, and it also opposed the West. impose sanctions on Russia. In addition, the New York Times quoted sources as reporting on the 2nd that Chinese officials had asked Russia in early February to wait until the end of the Beijing Winter Olympics before launching an attack on Ukraine; Beijing’s response to the Ukraine crisis has been questioned in global regions including Europe. .

Beijing’s ability to respond to international challenges is questioned

According to the analysis of “diplomatists”, China has always claimed to be a responsible big country committed to promoting world peace and development; however, in the face of a country that first responded to the Belt and Road Initiative was invaded by force, Beijing stood on the sidelines. Satisfied governments and citizens of Central and Eastern Europe. In these countries, even the most pro-Russian politicians have condemned Russian aggression.

Therefore, Beijing should not be surprised if more Central and Eastern European countries announce their withdrawal from the “17+1 cooperation mechanism” this year in favor of deepening ties with Taiwan. Moreover, European leaders now have reason to doubt China’s ability to meet serious international challenges and the credibility of its commitments.

Whether the China-EU summit will be launched in April can ease tensions

As Putin continued to launch military attacks, the European Union confirmed that the China-EU summit will be held on April 1, and European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis said in a report to the European Parliament on the 3rd. The EU “is in a complex phase in its relations with China, as we all know it,” he said, adding that there were signs that China and Russia were becoming “a closer alliance” in the Ukraine crisis.

However, the holding of the summit also shows that both Beijing and Brussels are willing to open a communication channel amid growing tensions between China and the EU.

According to Archyde.com analysis, the summit is expected to discuss the sanctions previously imposed on each other by the two sides. At the same time, it is difficult not to mention the war between Russia and Ukraine. However, it will be closely watched whether the summit can promote the improvement of Sino-EU relations.

In the current Ukraine crisis, experts believe that Beijing might benefit from the crisis if it is willing to work to play a bigger role in ending Russian aggression; if Beijing continues to remain ambiguous, it will gain Russia’s solid friendship will be met with more skepticism in return from Europe.