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As the war in Ukraine approaches its fourth anniversary, a complex diplomatic picture is emerging, with the United States and Russia reportedly working towards a negotiating platform despite continued fighting and deep-seated disagreements. Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, outlined a situation characterized by both accelerating diplomatic efforts and Russia’s apparent unwillingness to genuinely pursue peace. The core issue remains territorial concessions, with both Washington and Moscow reportedly pressing Ukraine to cede control of the Donbas region.

Podolyak’s assessment, shared in an interview with LaPresse, suggests a dual dynamic: the constructive engagement of the US and Europe in seeking a resolution, contrasted with Russia’s perceived strategic interest in prolonging the conflict. This tension is playing out against a backdrop of ongoing Russian attacks and a Ukrainian government resistant to territorial concessions. The pursuit of a negotiated settlement, whereas ongoing, is complicated by fundamentally opposing objectives and a lack of trust between the parties.

According to Podolyak, the United States is actively moderating the process, fostering what he described as a “realistic negotiating platform.” He also highlighted the constructive position of Ukraine and the expressed concerns and willingness of European nations to uncover a resolution. However, he asserted that Russia views the war not as a problem to be solved, but as an opportunity to advance its geopolitical interests and maintain internal control. This perspective casts doubt on the sincerity of any Russian commitment to a genuine peace process.

The Kremlin, under President Vladimir Putin, appears to see the conflict as essential to its vision of restoring Russian influence in the region, potentially mirroring a reconstituted Soviet Union, according to Podolyak. He argues that war has become “an obsessive idea” for Putin, serving as a tool for both external expansion and domestic political control. Podolyak claims the war has fundamentally reshaped the Russian economy, with the military-industrial complex now serving as its primary financial driver.

The US, under President Donald Trump, also appears keen to see the conflict resolved, with Podolyak noting Trump’s rhetoric and actions aimed at limiting Russia’s global presence in regions like Latin America, the Caribbean, and the Middle East. These efforts, he suggests, indicate a strong US interest in ending the war and are contributing to the current diplomatic push. However, the pressure from the US for Ukraine to make concessions is a point of contention, as Zelenskyy has repeatedly stated that ceding territory is not an option.

The situation is further complicated by Russia’s continued military offensive. Recent reports indicate ongoing, large-scale attacks, despite the ongoing negotiations. A second round of negotiations in Geneva, following a “tense” first meeting on February 17th, is currently underway, focusing on potential territorial concessions and security guarantees. Zelenskyy has criticized what he calls “missile diplomacy,” referring to the continued attacks occurring even as talks progress.

Zelenskyy has also proposed a direct summit with Putin, but no such meeting has been scheduled. He has also voiced concerns about the pressure from the US administration to make concessions, stating it is “incorrect” that such pressure isn’t also applied to Moscow. President Putin has cautiously welcomed a US proposal for ending the war, suggesting it could serve as a basis for a peace agreement, but details remain scarce.

Podolyak believes that only “hard coercion,” particularly economic and financial pressure, can compel Russia to engage in realistic negotiations. He suggests limiting Russia’s access to global markets as a potential lever, a strategy he believes both the US and the European-Atlantic alliance are capable of implementing. This highlights the ongoing debate over the effectiveness of sanctions and the potential for escalating economic pressure to achieve a diplomatic breakthrough.

The future of the conflict remains uncertain. While diplomatic efforts are underway, Russia’s apparent lack of genuine interest in a peaceful resolution, coupled with its continued military aggression, presents significant obstacles. The coming weeks will likely be critical in determining whether a viable path towards de-escalation and a lasting peace can be forged, or if the conflict will continue to escalate, with potentially devastating consequences for Ukraine and the wider region.

The situation demands continued attention and a commitment to diplomatic solutions, but also a realistic assessment of the challenges and the need for sustained pressure on Russia to alter its course. Share your thoughts on the evolving situation in the comments below.