2024-01-27 11:25:20
The Japan Taiwan Society and Waseda University’s Institute of Taiwan Studies held a research seminar on Taiwan’s presidential election at Waseda University last night. Scholars Yasuhiro Matsuda and Yoshiyuki Ogasawara, who are well versed in the situation in Taiwan, gave speeches. Matsuda pointed out that Taiwan’s local faction is strong enough that even if it splits,Democratic Progressive PartyStill got elected in the end.
The seminar was chaired by Masajo Wakabayashi, an honorary professor at Waseda University and former professor at the University of Tokyo. The seminar was delivered by Yoshiyuki Ogasawara, an honorary professor at Tokyo University of Foreign Studies, and Yasuhiro Matsuda, a professor at the University of Tokyo. It attracted scholars, media people, and students who have long paid attention to Taiwan’s political situation. Originally, the seminar was scheduled to be attended by up to There were 250 people pouring into the 200-seat venue.
When Matsuda gave a speech titled “Taiwan’s Presidential Election and U.S.-China-Taiwan Relations,” he first analyzed Taiwan’s public opinion trends. He pointed out that China’s rise reached its peak in 2018. The destruction of Hong Kong’s “one country, two systems” from 2019 to 2020 caused a decisive tectonic shift in Taiwan’s public opinion, and the Taiwanese people’s expectations of China gradually shrank.
Matsuda said that the results of this presidential (and legislative) election were determined by the ruling Democratic Progressive Party and the opposition party.Kuomintangandpopular partyNone of these three parties has a majority. The Kuomintang won more seats in the Legislative Yuan, while the People’s Party won a critical minority of seats. It is still unclear who will serve as President and Vice-President of the Legislative Yuan. In addition, attention is being paid to whether important bills such as the budget and arms purchases can be passed. It is necessary for the United States and Japan to strengthen dialogue with Taiwan’s opposition parties in the future.
Matsuda said that from this presidential election, we can see that Taiwan’s local faction is powerful enough that even if it split, the Democratic Progressive Party was still elected. In addition, the People’s Party has become an outlet for young people to vent their dissatisfaction, and there is still room for growth in the future. As for the Kuomintang, there is an obvious tendency for long-term decline.
He pointed out that it is expected that the DPP government will be more likely to be in power for a long time, and China may strengthen its measures to fight independence and promote reunification. While China continues to exert pressure, it also wants to establish a communication channel with the Lai government and strengthen Taiwan’s opposition forces, with a view to achieving a regime change in Taiwan in 2028 and strengthening its military strength.
Matsuda believes that the United States will strengthen its support for Taiwan in the future, but former President Trump who intends to return to the pot will be an uncertain factor.
Matsuda’s analysis pointed out that although China has intervened in this Taiwan election, it is not decisive. After the election, China made remarks such as “the DPP does not represent the mainstream public opinion on the island,” disrupted Taiwan with military aircraft, and poached Taiwan’s diplomatic ally Nauru, which may have been a cathartic act.China may have predicted before the electionLai Qingdewill be elected, the above behavior can be interpreted as China is looking for a reason not to use force against Taiwan.
During the Q&A, an audience member asked that since 1996, China has used force to intimidate Taiwan’s presidential election every time, but failed. Why does China still do this? Matsuda replied: “This is their job, they must do it, and they will continue to do it in the future.”
In the last presidential election in Taiwan, Ogasawara accurately predicted President Tsai Ing-wen’s vote rate and was known as the “god of elections” in Taiwan. In August last year, he was selected by Newsweek Japan as one of the top 100 Japanese people respected in the world. .
This time Ogasawara predicted that Lai Qingtoku would get 42.1% of the vote, which was only about 2 percentage points different from the actual result. The error in the estimated seats of each party was also very small, and his accuracy was once again praised.
In his speech last night, he said that he arrived in Taiwan three days before the vote and found thatKe WenzheThe momentum grew rapidly. Since the forecast figures had been sealed at that time and could not be reflected in the completed forecasting work, Ke Wenzhe’s final explosive power was underestimated. He said that when Ko Wenzhe campaigned on the night before the election, he would feel the excitement of voters, which was similar to the enthusiastic atmosphere when Chen Shui-bian ran for president 24 years ago.
Ogasawara pointed out that the success of the third force represented by Ke Wenzhe has caused a clear change in the pattern of party politics, but it remains to be seen whether a three-party politics will be formed. He believes that none of the three parties has a majority in the Legislative Yuan, and the People’s Party, which won 8 legislative seats, has become a key minority, which is more beneficial to the Kuomintang; for China, as long as it can control these 8 people, it will be easier to control.
Regarding the movement of votes for presidential votes, regional legislators and political party votes, Ogasawara believes that it is mainly due to the balanced voting of voters, but this is a movement among voters who advocate “maintaining the status quo”. Overall, Taiwan’s consciousness is not Not much has changed.
He pointed out that in this election, although cross-Strait relations have attracted attention among the blue and green parties, it will not have much impact on the median voters or voters who advocate “maintaining the status quo” because Taiwanese consciousness has taken shape, which also As a result, the DPP lost its focus and fell into a bitter battle.
Both Matsuda and Ogasawara noticed that during this election campaign, the influence of the short video platform “TikTok” was being discussed. TikTok spreads a lot of messages that are friendly to Ke Wenzhe and negative to Lai Qingde and KMT candidatesHou YouyiUnfavorable news has become Ke Wenzhe’s weapon in selecting battles. Ogasawara warned that this election has not changed Taiwan’s consciousness, but it will be difficult to tell four years later.
Volunteers complained about being ordered to serve food and dump food waste. The chairman of the Gao City Party Committee of the People’s Party apologized
PTT Internet celebrity “Four-Chased Cat” disclosed on Facebook that Xiaocao accused Zhuang Yi, the chairman of the People’s Party’s Gao City Party Committee, in a LINE group for ordering volunteers to serve food, pour tea, and pour kitchen waste, which caused the volunteers… .
2024-01-28 00:37
Hou Youyi Jianan thanked the vote “seeing the potential of the KMT”
The Kuomintang held a thanksgiving tea party yesterday in Tainan and Chiayi counties and cities. New Taipei City Mayor Hou Youyi and party chairman Zhu Lilun were both present. The grassroots pointed out that the Kuomintang needs to change now to attract young people who are willing to recognize…
2024-01-28 00:33
Presidential Legislative Election Ends, Blue and White Kaohsiung Congratulations Confronted with Sun
The 2024 presidential and legislative elections have come to an end, and the presidential candidates have started their vote-gracing schedules one after another. However, the Kuomintang and the People’s Party have coincided with the vote-grabbing schedule in Kaohsiung. New Taipei City Mayor Hou Youyi went to Kaohsiung today to thank the people for voting…
2024-01-28 00:11
Four-pronged cat broke the news that Xiaocao was being manipulated! Ke Wenzhe asked: How could you believe what he said?
People’s Party Chairman Ko Wenzhe went to Taichung to meet with Xiaocao today. In response to internet celebrity Sijimao’s revelation that Kaohsiung Xiaocao was used as a work-study student and was kicked out of the group after complaining, Ko Wenzhe said, “What Sijimao said…
2024-01-27 23:02
Analysis of Taiwan’s presidential election!Scholars warn on the day of the key decisive change in public opinion: it will be difficult to say in four years
The Japan Taiwan Society and Waseda University’s Institute of Taiwan Studies held a research seminar on Taiwan’s presidential election at Waseda University last night. Scholars Yasuhiro Matsuda and Yoshiyuki Ogasawara, who are well versed in the situation in Taiwan, gave speeches. Matsuda pointed…
2024-01-27 19:25
People’s Party Dinner Wrong Name of Cai Biru Changhua Chairman: Cai Fan Comforted Volunteers
Former People’s Party legislator Cai Biru recently caused a discussion because she did not attend the People’s Party’s last meeting. Today she went to Changhua City to attend the People’s Party’s central county and city gratitude dinner. She sat at the same table with Party Chairman Ko Wenzhe and also had a private chat…
2024-01-27 19:14
0 messages in total
- When posting articles or placing tags, you must not make any remarks that are illegal or infringe upon the rights of others. Violators shall bear legal responsibility.
- For comments that are knowingly untrue or excessively emotional and abusive, if reported by netizens or discovered by this website, Lianhe News Network has the right to delete the article, suspend or terminate the membership. If you do not agree with the above rules, please do not post articles.
- For tags that are meaningless, irrelevant to this article, knowingly untrue, or abusive, Lianhe News Network reserves the right to delete tags, suspend or cancel membership. If you do not agree with the above regulations, please do not place tags.
- If the “nickname” involves swearing, swearing, or infringing on the rights of others, Lianhe News Network has the right to delete the article, suspend or cancel the membership. If you do not agree with the above rules, please do not post articles.
More
1706386918
#Analysis #Taiwans #presidential #electionScholars #warn #day #key #decisive #change #public #opinion #difficult #years #Voices #review #victory #defeat #party #Important #news