2024-01-02 00:00:00
Stock commentator Takaya Tomita
“Ambushing Chart Interesting Stocks”
The market price in the new Year of the Dragon is expected to challenge the all-time high of 38,957 yen set in 1989. The Nikkei Stock Average has been in a range for half a year since its June 2023 high of 33,772 yen, and the chart shows that the high point has passed, so the focus is on when it will start to move up to the second level.
With the start of the new NISA (Small Investment Tax Exemption System), it is not surprising that the stock market will remain strong from the new year. However, there are many causes for concern, including geopolitical risks, election years (Taiwan, the United States, etc.), domestic political turmoil, exchange rate fluctuations, and expectations that the Bank of Japan will lift negative interest rates. We must keep an eye on the movements of the New York Dow (US stocks), which continues to hit record highs, and we must assume that the market price will make adjustments from time to time.
The current Japanese market is characterized by (1) a structure in which funds flow into individual stocks through ETFs (exchange traded funds) and funds, making it easy to look for large-scale major stocks that are included in the Nikkei 225 or Nikkei 400; (2) Easily influenced by foreign investors and futures trends; (3) Thematically, the focus is on “AI (artificial intelligence)” and “semiconductors,” with strong performance stocks as well as EV (electric vehicles), defense-related stocks, and China. For example, individual stocks move sporadically due to related factors and themes such as TOB and MBO. When dealing with individual items, you will need to keep these things in mind.
Now, regarding the stocks to watch, here we will introduce stocks that are attractive on the charts, from the main stocks to the low-ranking stocks. It may take some time to get going because we ambush stocks that are “adjusting,” “laggard,” and “in the low price range,” but we want to slowly and steadily earn returns. That is also the basis of investment.
[Mysterious stocks in 2024]
◆ＮＴＴ<9432> [東証Ｐ]Market price 171.6 yen
A holding company of the NTT Group, with NTT Docomo and NTT Data under its umbrella. <9613> [東証Ｐ] It has many powerful companies such as With an eye on the 6G era, we are promoting an ICT infrastructure concept called “IOWN” that will support next-generation communications. Business performance continues to grow steadily, with consolidated operating income for the fiscal year ending March 2024 reaching a new high for the third consecutive year, and dividends expected to increase for the 13th consecutive year (annual dividend of 5 yen). In addition to owning a huge amount of land, the government is considering the revision of the NTT Act, which will be a key point in the new year. The company conducted a 25-for-1 stock split in July 2023. The stock price has changed from the 4,400 yen level before the split to around 170 yen, a level that is easy for individual investors to purchase, and it is thought that there will be considerable demand created by the new NISA. The chart has undergone a three-month adjustment since the high of 183.4 yen on September 27, 2023. We assume that the 200-day moving average line and 52-week line, which are approaching the 160 yen level, will become conscious and the price will turn around.
◆Nomura Holdings<8604> [東証Ｐ]Market price 636.2 yen
Largest domestic securities company. Earnings forecasts for the fiscal year ending March 2024 have not been disclosed, but consolidated pre-tax profit for the cumulative second quarter (April-September) is 2.4 times that of the same period last year, and a V-shaped recovery is expected for the full year as well. The market forecast for this fiscal year’s dividend is 20 to 27 yen (17 yen in the previous year). Net asset value per share is 1,092.03 yen, and PBR (price/book value ratio) is lagging at 0.58 times.Companion Daiwa Securities Group Headquarters <8601> [東証Ｐ]announced a share buyback at the end of October last year, and the stock price rose to 995 yen, temporarily recovering PBR to 1x. The company is also expected to come up with some kind of return policy (share buybacks, dividend increases, etc.) in the new year, aiming for a PBR of 1x. If news such as “new NISA gets off to a good start” comes out, it will be a tailwind for stock prices. If you are anticipating a rising market in the Year of the Dragon, it is a good idea to pay attention to the top securities companies. After hitting a year-to-date high of 661 yen on September 20, 2023, there has been a three-month period of adjustment, and the price is considered to be an ambush.
◆Sakura Internet<3778> [東証Ｐ]Market price 2049 yen
In June 2023, it was announced that it would receive financial support from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry to provide cloud services for generative AI.U.S. semiconductor giant NVIDIA will participate in this business.
◆Tsuburaya Fields Holdings<2767> [東証Ｐ]Market price 1242 yen
The stock price fell from a year-to-date high of 3,380 yen on August 8, 2013 to a low of 1,070 yen on December 6, a decline rate of 68%, reaching the proverbial “half price by 80%”. This is not to say that the performance is bad, but that expectations have become excessively high due to the rise until August, and the “reactionary decline” has been prolonged. However, at this point, the price has fallen too much, and we are looking forward to a rebound after the price consolidates around 1,100 yen. Ultraman-related content and digital business is doing well, and sales have doubled in China as well. Daikoku Denki has been accounted for using the equity method since the second quarter of the fiscal year ending March 2024. <6430> [東証Ｐ]will also contribute to profits, and sales and final profits are expected to reach record highs. The company has a PER of 9.6 times and plans to pay a lump sum dividend of 30 yen at the end of the term, but it is also expected that the amount will be increased.
[Other/low quality stocks]
◆Line Yahoo<4689> [東証Ｐ]Market price 494.2 yen
Yahoo, LINE, ZOZO under its umbrella <3092> [東証Ｐ], PayPay etc. Although the profit forecast for the full year ending March 2024 has not been disclosed, the consolidated final profit for the cumulative second quarter (April-September) is 2.3 times higher than the same period last year, and a significant new record high for full-year profit is expected. . The stock price has just started to rise after bottoming out at the 300 yen level. The price hit a high of 839 yen in November 2021, and the trend of buying on the spur of the moment is expected to continue.
◆Oizumi<6428> [東証Ｓ]Market price 430 yen
Consolidated ordinary income for the cumulative second quarter of the fiscal year ending March 2024 (April-September) was 890 million yen, an increase of 80.4% compared to the same period last year. The progress rate against the full-year plan (1.05 billion yen) has reached 85%, and an upward revision is inevitable. Due in part to the change from the TSE Prime to the Standard market (October 2023), the stock price has fallen from the year-to-date high of 598 yen in May to the October low of 351 yen, but there is a feeling that it has bottomed out. The PBR is 0.52x, which gives it a strong sense of value, making it a great ambush.
◆Shirai Electronics<6658> [東証Ｓ]Market price 506 yen
Specializes in printed wiring boards. The stock price has adjusted from the year-to-date high of 888 yen in March and is currently hovering around 500 yen, partly due to the announcement of the issuance of stock acquisition rights through third-party allotment (worth 1.67 billion yen) in September 2023. are doing. However, positive financing such as updating the production line should be evaluated. Despite forecasting a decline in profits, the company plans to maintain a high level of performance for the fiscal year ending March 2024, with EPS (earnings per share) of 112.6 yen and dividend of 19 yen. The new year will be a year of review.
◆Oval<7727> [東証Ｓ]Market price 483 yen
The company is the largest manufacturer of fluid measurement equipment, and demand is strong for semiconductors, EV batteries, and chemicals. In August 2023, we announced an increase in dividends for the fiscal year ending March 2024 (from 9 yen in the previous fiscal year to 14 yen in the current fiscal year) and an upward revision to the medium-term management plan (consolidated ordinary income for the fiscal year ending March 2025, the final year, was increased from the initial plan of 700 million yen to 1.4 billion yen). billion yen) announced. The stock price skyrocketed from around 420 yen to 947 yen in July 2022, but has remained in the high 400 yen range ever since. With a PBR of 0.75 times and a yield of 2.9%, it is likely that the stock will try to emerge in the new year.
(Written on December 27, 2023, market price as of the 27th)
Information provided:Takaya Tomita’s Chart Club
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