2023-08-04 09:29:26
The president of Niger, ousted by putschists, appealed for help from the American government and the international community. But what can these do?
In the American newspaper The Washington Post, the president of Niger removed from power by a coup d’etat last week, Mohamed Bazoum, expressed all his concern about the consequences of the putsch.
If the coup “succeeds, it will have devastating consequences for our country, our region and the whole world“, wrote the democratically elected president in 2021, but sequestered in his presidential residence since the military coup of July 26. He also warned that “the entire central Sahel region could come under Russian influence via the Wagner Groupwhose brutal terrorism has been clearly exposed in Ukraine.”
“Boko Haram and other terrorist movements will undoubtedly take advantage of the instability in Niger“warned again Mohamed Bazoumreflecting concerns already heard since the putsch.
Intervention by force?
The curfew, introduced on the day of the putsch, was lifted on Friday. For the rest, the situation has hardly changed. A delegation from the West African bloc, which arrived in the capital Niamey on Thursday to try to find a way out of the crisis, left a few hours later, without having met the head of the juntaas she wished, nor the president.
“Nigeria, which is a major electricity producer, or Côte d’Ivoire, which is an economic lung, are important suppliers for Niger, a very poor country. This economic dependence facilitates pressure tactics.”
The Nigerien president appealed for help from his gallery“I call on the US government and the entire international community to help restore constitutional order.” But who could intervene in Niger to calm the situation?
The putschists have already threatened toan “immediate response” to “any aggression” from an ECOWAS country. Mali and Burkina Faso, also in the hands of putschists, said they would consider an armed intervention in Niger “as a declaration of war” on their two countries.
As the expert in international relations, professor at UCLouvain Tanguy de Wilde points out, ECOWAS, which has already imposed heavy penalties in Niger (ban on oil exports and imports, suspension of cross-border financial transactions, etc.) still has a few tricks up its sleeve. “Nigeria, which is a major electricity producer, or Côte d’Ivoire, a real economic lung, are important suppliers for Niger, a very poor country. This economic dependence facilitates pressure tactics.”
What about the UN?
A ECOWAS military intervention on the other hand seems risky, given the risk of conflagration in the region.
An operation launched by other authorities also seems very complicated. “If a Western country like France intervenes, we will hear cries of neo-colonialism. As for a possible implication of the United States, the Russians will oppose it. We can forget an intervention by the UN: Russia and China will refuse to get involved in this problem”, Tanguy de Wilde slices.
“I believe that the greatest hope for appeasement lies in this kind of arrangement.”
The peaceful option still seems playable. “Initially, this coup seemed to stem more personal problems than fundamental problems: the presidential guard and the army feared certain decisions, on nominations, on the part of the civil power. In this context, reconciliation may be possible“, judges the professor of UCLouvain. “Of course, the president will not find his seat and the soldiers will not return to their barracks as if nothing had happened. They will need interesting exit doors. But I believe that the greatest hope for appeasement lies in this kind of arrangement.”
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