Ten NHL Contracts to Avoid in 2025

NHL Stars Facing Critical Crossroads: Stamkos & Pettersson‘s Futures in Doubt

Vancouver/Nashville – Two prominent NHL players, Steven Stamkos of the Nashville Predators and Elias Pettersson of the Vancouver Canucks, are facing significant questions about their future performance after disappointing seasons, raising concerns about their respective contracts and team outlooks.

Stamkos, 35, experienced a sharp decline in production this past season, dropping from 81 points to just 53. This downturn comes amidst a broader period of struggle for the Predators, who endured a deeply frustrating campaign. While Stamkos’s past achievements are undeniable, analysts are increasingly skeptical about his ability to return to form, questioning whether he can realistically reach 70 or even 80 points given the current state of the Nashville roster. The prevailing sentiment suggests Stamkos may be overpaid for the remainder of his contract.

“The drop-off is concerning, especially at his age,” noted one hockey insider. “While a veteran presence is valuable, Nashville needs more consistent offensive output, and it’s unclear if Stamkos can provide that moving forward.”

Simultaneously occurring, in Vancouver, 26-year-old Elias Pettersson is navigating a different kind of crisis. Despite a stellar 102-point season in 2022-2023, Pettersson managed a mere 45 points in 64 games this past season. This slump was reportedly fueled by internal team discord,culminating in the trade of a teammate following alleged conflict.

Pettersson’s talent remains unquestioned, but his recent inconsistency and reported difficulties with media engagement have raised red flags. The Canucks’ success hinges on Pettersson rediscovering his previous form, but his unpredictable nature presents a significant challenge.

“Pettersson is a dynamic player when he’s on, but the off-ice issues and subsequent drop in production are worrying,” commented a Canucks analyst. “Vancouver has invested heavily in him, and they desperately need him to be a consistent offensive force.”

Beyond the Headlines: The Aging Curve & Team Chemistry

these situations highlight two critical factors in professional hockey: the inevitable impact of the aging curve and the paramount importance of team chemistry. Stamkos’s decline serves as a stark reminder that even elite players are susceptible to diminishing returns with age. Teams must carefully manage expectations and plan for the eventual transition to younger talent.

Pettersson’s case underscores the fragility of team dynamics. Internal conflicts, even if seemingly minor, can have a devastating effect on performance. Building a cohesive and supportive locker room surroundings is crucial for maximizing a team’s potential.

Long-Term Implications

Both the Predators and the Canucks face difficult decisions regarding their star players. Nashville must determine whether Stamkos can contribute meaningfully enough to justify his salary, or if they should explore trade options. vancouver needs to address the underlying issues that plagued Pettersson’s season and ensure he’s fully integrated into the team’s long-term plans.

The coming seasons will be pivotal for both players and their respective franchises. Their ability to overcome these challenges will ultimately define their legacies and shape the future of their teams.

how can teams mitigate risk when structuring contracts with performance-based incentives?

The Perils of Long-Term,High-AAV Deals

Navigating the NHL salary cap is a constant challenge for General Managers.While splashy free agent signings generate excitement, some contracts become albatrosses, hindering a team’s ability to build a competitive roster. This article identifies ten NHL contracts, as of July 9, 2025, that teams should actively avoid replicating, focusing on Annual Average Value (AAV), term length, adn potential for decline. We’ll examine why these deals are problematic, considering factors like age, injury history, and performance trends. Key terms include NHL contracts, salary cap, free agency, player performance, and cap management.

1. Erik Karlsson (Pittsburgh Penguins) – 8 years, $9.5M AAV

Karlsson’s decline in Pittsburgh was swift and significant. While his offensive upside remains, his defensive liabilities and increasing injury concerns make this a contract that should serve as a cautionary tale. The length and AAV are simply too high for a player whose all-around game is diminishing. Defensive defenseman, aging players, and contract regrets are relevant search terms here.

2. jack Campbell (Edmonton Oilers) – 5 Years, $5M AAV

Campbell’s struggles in Edmonton are well-documented. A high-priced backup goalie is a luxury few teams can afford, and Campbell’s inconsistent performance doesn’t justify his cap hit. This exemplifies the risk of overpaying for goaltending in NHL free agency.goalie contracts,backup goalies,and cap space are significant keywords.

3. Marc-Andre Fleury (Minnesota Wild) – 2 Years, $7M AAV (UFA 2025) – Potential Re-Signing Caution

While Fleury continues to play at a high level, re-signing him to a similar deal would be a mistake. His age (39) makes him a significant injury risk, and relying on him as a primary starter long-term is unwise. Veteran goalies,aging curve,and goaltending depth are key considerations.

4. Ryan McDonagh (Nashville Predators) – 6 Years, $7.25M AAV

McDonagh’s contract is a prime example of a team overpaying for a veteran defenseman past his prime. His mobility has declined, and his offensive contributions haven’t justified his salary. Defensive decline, veteran defenseman contracts, and cap flexibility are relevant search terms.

5. P.K. Subban (Toronto Maple Leafs – Currently a UFA, but illustrative of past mistakes) – 3 Years, $7.5M AAV (Previous Contract)

Tho Subban is currently a free agent, his previous contract with Toronto serves as a stark reminder of the dangers of betting on past performance. His decline was rapid, and the Maple Leafs were stuck with a significant cap hit for a player who wasn’t contributing at a high level.Past performance vs. future potential, contract buyouts, and cap penalties are important lessons.

6. James van Riemsdyk (Philadelphia Flyers) – 5 Years, $7M AAV (Previous Contract)

Similar to Subban, van Riemsdyk’s previous deal with the Flyers highlights the risk of overpaying for a winger whose offensive production is heavily reliant on linemates. Winger contracts, offensive production, and line chemistry are relevant factors.

7. Loui Eriksson (Vancouver Canucks – Illustrative Example) – 6 Years, $36M (Previous Contract)

Eriksson’s contract with Vancouver is often cited as one of the worst in NHL history. A significant decline in performance coupled with a long term and high AAV crippled the Canucks for years. Contract disasters, player decline, and cap mismanagement are crucial takeaways.

8. David Backes (Boston bruins – Illustrative Example) – 5 Years, $6M AAV (Previous Contract)

Backes’ contract, while not as disastrous as some others, demonstrates the pitfalls of signing a veteran player to a long-term deal based on leadership and reputation rather than current performance. Leadership vs. performance, veteran contracts, and team culture are important considerations.

9. Andrew Ladd (New York Islanders) – 7 Years, $5.5M AAV (Previous Contract)

Ladd’s contract became a significant burden for the Islanders due to his declining play and eventual inability to contribute at an NHL level. This underscores the importance of thoroughly evaluating a player’s physical condition and potential for decline. Physical decline, injury history, and contract termination are relevant search terms.

10. Milan Lucic (Calgary Flames) – 7 Years, $6M AAV (Previous Contract)

Lucic’s contract with Calgary was a clear miscalculation. His offensive output dwindled, and his physical style of play didn’t translate into consistent results. Power forward contracts, offensive decline, and player value are key considerations.

Understanding Contract Structures & Avoiding Pitfalls

Beware of Back-Loaded Contracts: These contracts start with a lower AAV but increase substantially in later years, potentially creating cap problems down the line.

Prioritize Performance-Based Incentives: Structuring contracts with incentives tied to performance can mitigate risk.