2023-05-15 15:51:24
- Jonathan Head
- Southeast Asia correspondent, BBC News
Forward Party, led by Peta Limjaroonrat, campaigned on the slogan “Thailand needs change”
Thai voters unexpectedly ruled in favor of an opposition party calling for radical reform of the country’s institutions, in a major blow to the military-backed rule.
The preliminary results of the elections showed that the “For the Imam” party exceeded all expectations and won 151 out of 500 seats in the House of Representatives.
The party is currently leading by ten seats over the “Phieu Thai” party, which was the frontrunner, led by the daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
Analysts describe the result as a political earthquake that marks a major shift in public opinion.
The election result also represents a clear rejection of the two military-allied parties in the current government and Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, who led a coup that overthrew an elected government in 2014. The ruling coalition won just 15 percent of the seats.
“We will change everything,” Pita Limjaronrat, the 42-year-old leader of the Onward Party, told the BBC. “People have been fed up for the past decade. Now, it’s a new day.”
Pheu Thai, the country’s second largest political party, said it had agreed to join the Forward Party and four smaller opposition parties, giving them a coalition with more than 60 percent of the seats in the new parliament.
However, this is still not enough to win the voting bloc of the unelected Senate, which consists of 250 members, who were appointed by Prayuth, and is allowed to join the vote in Parliament for the next administration.
The council is likely to veto the reform agenda of the Entrance Party, in particular the pledge to amend the controversial lese majeste law.
Peta Limjaronrat, leader of the En Marche party, speaks to the press
Many Thais fear that the army and its supporters may seek, during the upcoming political negotiations, to prevent the winning parties from assuming power. A military coup is unlikely, but it is possible that another court ruling disqualifies the Forward Party for technical reasons, as happened to its predecessor, the Future Forward Party, in 2020.
Another question is to what extent the Forward Party and Pheu Thai Party, whose relations in the last parliament were sometimes troubled, can cooperate well.
However, this ambiguity does not change the fact that the Thai people woke up this morning to a different political scene.
“The majority of the votes reflect the need to escape from the Prayuth regime and the desire for change,” says Prajak Kongkirati, a professor of political science at Thammasat University. “It shows people’s faith in the demand for change supported by the Forward Party, which is much more than expected.”
Peta tweeted that he was “ready” to be the country’s 30th prime minister, adding: “We have the same dreams and hopes. Together we believe that our beloved Thailand can be better, and changes are possible if we start working on it today.”
“This election tells you that it has only been four years, but people’s thinking has changed a lot, whether in the establishment or the pro-democracy camp,” he said. “Democracy cannot be underestimated.”
Paytongtarn, daughter of former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra
It was unlikely to win more seats and votes than any of its rival parties, Forward, a party that advocates sweeping changes to Thailand’s bureaucracy, its economy, the role of the military and even the laws protecting the monarchy.
It is no coincidence that these were the same issues that prompted a months-long student protest movement in 2020, and some of the Forward Party’s candidates were leaders in that protest movement.
Undoubtedly, like the 2020 protests, young and enthusiastic voters, many of whom are En Marche supporters, played a large role in the outcome of the elections.
And given the availability of fewer resources for the candidates of the “Onward” party compared to their competitors, they had to rely on social media, and sometimes old means such as bicycles, to get their message across, which helped their vision appear much clearer than the other parties.
The election result represents a rejection of nearly a decade of military-backed rule
The “Forward” party ruled out any alliance with parties linked to the military coup in 2014, a position that its reformist rival Pheu Tai initially evaded. The party was also new and bold, and was known in the previous parliament for taking principled positions.
The party has benefited from a widespread public desire for change. Voters under the age of 26 are not a large bloc in aging Thailand, making up just 14 percent of the 52 million electorate. But party members have struggled to convince older voters to support the party. Forward” for a better future for their generation.
The most pressing question is whether the two reformist parties are allowed to form a government, despite the mandate for change.
Pita expressed optimism while speaking to the media on Monday. “Thanks to the unanimity that emerged in the elections, anyone who thinks of annulling the election results or forming a minority government will pay a heavy price… This is currently out of reach,” he said.
“I think the Thai people will not allow that to happen,” he added.
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