When markets opened on Monday, the SET Index traded sideways between 1,420 and 1,470 points as Middle East conflict pressures weighed on energy stocks while technology shares provided tentative support, according to brokerage forecasts from GLOBLEC Securities and market observations from multiple Thai financial outlets on April 27, 2026. The stagnation reflects investor caution amid rising Brent crude prices above $90 per barrel and geopolitical uncertainty, offset by selective buying in defensive tech names like Advanced Info Service (ADVANC) and electronics components firms expected to benefit from supply chain rerouting. Analysts note the market lacks directional conviction until clearer signals emerge from the new economic cabinet’s first policy meeting and quarterly earnings guidance from major exporters.
The Bottom Line
- The SET Index’s 1,420-1,470 point range implies ~3.5% volatility, signaling indecision as foreign net selling averaged ฿1.2B/day over the past week.
- Technology and communications sectors are outperforming, with ADVANC up 4.1% MoM and ICT sector PE at 18.3x vs. Energy’s 9.7x, reflecting defensive rotation.
- Middle East tensions are adding ~0.8% to Thailand’s imported inflation via higher freight and fuel costs, pressuring manufacturing margins.
How Geopolitical Risk Is Distorting Thai Asset Allocation
The prolonged Middle East conflict is altering portfolio construction among Thai institutional investors, with data from the Thai Bond Market Association showing foreign holdings of Thai government bonds fell to 14.1% in March 2026 from 15.8% in December 2025, while equity outflows accelerated to ฿38B YTD. This risk-off behavior is not uniform: local provident funds increased allocations to SET50 ICT stocks by 2.3 percentage points QoQ, per Kasikorn Research Center, as investors seek exposure to companies with minimal geographic exposure to Red Sea shipping disruptions. Meanwhile, energy producers like PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP) face margin compression despite higher oil prices, as hedging losses from 2025 contracts offset spot gains; PTTEP reported Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA of ฿28.4B, down 6.2% YoY despite a 22% rise in realized crude prices.
Where Tech Stocks Are Finding Resilience Amid Volatility
Defensive demand for telecommunications and digital services is providing a floor for select tech stocks, with Advanced Info Service (ADVANC) reporting Q1 2026 service revenue of ฿42.1B, up 3.8% YoY, driven by 5G subscriber growth to 18.7M and stable ARPU of ฿458. The company’s EBITDA margin expanded to 48.1% from 46.9% a year ago due to cost optimization in network maintenance, according to its April 24 earnings release. Similarly, Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA) saw industrial automation orders rise 9.1% YoY in Q1, partially offsetting weakness in consumer electronics, as noted by CEO Ping Cheng in a March 2026 interview with Bangkok Post. These fundamentals contrast with the broader SET’s forward PE of 15.2x, as ICT trades at a premium multiple reflecting earnings stability.
How Supply Chain Shifts Are Benefiting Niche Manufacturers
Electronics components manufacturers are experiencing unexpected gains from supply chain diversification away from Middle East-dependent routes, with KCE Electronics (KCE) reporting Q1 2026 revenue of ฿5.9B, up 14.3% YoY, driven by higher demand for PCB substrates from European automotive clients rerouting shipments via Cape of Good Hope. The company’s gross margin improved to 18.7% from 16.2% due to favorable product mix and currency effects, as stated in its May 2, 2026 filing with the SET. This trend is mirrored by SVI Public Company Limited (SVI), which noted in its April 25 investor presentation that medical device component orders increased 11.4% YoY as European clients sought alternatives to Suez Canal-dependent logistics. Such shifts are contributing to a 0.4% drag on Thailand’s overall manufacturing PMI, which stood at 49.8 in April 2026 per Markit Economics, indicating contraction but with select sub-sectors expanding.
What Institutional Investors Are Saying About Market Direction
“We are not chasing beta in Thai equities right now; selectivity is key. Companies with domestic revenue bases and pricing power, like in telecom and healthcare, offer better risk-adjusted returns than exporters facing margin volatility from freight costs and commodity swings.”
— Porametee Vimolsiri, Chief Investment Officer, TMB Asset Management, interview with Thansettakij, April 20, 2026.
This sentiment is echoed by foreign strategists, with JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Thailand equity team noting in a April 22 client memo that “foreign investors are maintaining a cautious stance on Thai equities until geopolitical risk premiums normalize, favoring sectors with <15% revenue exposure to Middle East-affected supply chains." The memo, reviewed by Archyde.com, highlights that net foreign buying returned only in ICT and consumer staples during April, while energy and industrials saw continued outflows. These flows are influencing valuation spreads: the ICT sector’s forward PE premium to energy widened to 8.6 points in April from 6.1 points in January, per Bloomberg data.
The Inflation Transmission Channel From Geopolitics to Main Street
The conflict’s inflationary impact is filtering through to household budgets via higher transport and food costs, with Thailand’s headline CPI rising to 2.1% in March 2026 from 1.6% in February, according to the Ministry of Commerce. Fuel prices contributed 0.7 percentage points to this increase, while food and non-alcoholic beverages added 0.5 points, driven by higher palm oil and wheat import costs. Notably, core CPI (excluding food and energy) remained subdued at 0.9%, suggesting limited second-round effects so far. For small businesses, this translates to squeezed margins: the Federation of Thai Industries reported that 62% of SMEs in manufacturing cited rising input costs as their top concern in Q1 2026, up from 48% in Q4 2025, while only 29% reported ability to pass costs to consumers fully. This dynamic is constraining GDP growth forecasts, with the World Bank revising Thailand’s 2026 projection down to 2.4% from 2.8% in its April 2026 update, citing “persistent external shocks and weak private investment.”
Where the Market Could Discover Direction Next
Near-term SET movement will hinge on two catalysts: the outcome of the April 29 economic cabinet meeting on fiscal stimulus measures and Q2 earnings guidance from export-heavy conglomerates like Siam Cement Group (SCG) and PTT Public Company Limited (PTT). SCG, which reported Q1 2026 revenue of ฿45.3B (flat YoY) and EBITDA of ฿5.1B (down 8.3%), has signaled cautious optimism about domestic demand recovery in its April 26 investor call, noting Q2 cement sales volumes could rise 3-5% if infrastructure spending accelerates. Conversely, PTT’s refining margin outlook remains pressured by Dubai-Oman spread volatility, with its trading arm forecasting Q2 GRM of $4.50-$5.50/bbl, down from $6.20 in Q1. Until these factors clarify, the SET is likely to remain range-bound, with support near 1,400 points tied to ICT sector valuation floors and resistance at 1,500 contingent on a de-escalation premium in geopolitical risk pricing.
