Thaioil expects pricesWest Texas Crude OilThis week, it will move in the range of 69-81 USD per barrel.Brentmoving within a range of 73-85 USD per barrel.
Crude oil price trend (19 – 23 Dec. ’22)
Crude oil prices recover because the epidemic situation in China tends to improve After China began to relax strict measures in many areas. Resulting in supporting economic activities and global oil demand. The EIA in December 2022 forecasts that global oil demand is likely to increase from the previous year. After demand in China is likely to begin to recover from the epidemic. While the market keeps an eye on Russian oil exports. After Europe announced measures to limit the price ceiling (price cap) of Russian crude oil from December 5, 2022 onwards.
Key factors expected to affect oil price situation this week
– EIA Dec. Report 65 forecast global oil demand at an average of 100.83 million barrels, down from the April forecast. 65 at 101.74 million barrels per day. Due to the impact of the economy that tends to go into recession. from the Fed’s continued interest rate hikes to slow inflation and China’s Zero-COVID policy used to continuously control the epidemic. However, world oil demand is likely to increase by 1.0 million barrels per day from the previous year. It is expected that demand in Asia is likely to recover fully from the epidemic. and demand in China that began to recover If China relaxes more stringent measures
– US Federal Reserve (FED) resolved to raise interest rates by 0.5% to 4.25 – 4.50% at the meeting on 13-14 December after the consumer price index (CPI) in the US in November 2022 dropped to 7.1% from 7.7% the previous month. Still at a high level, causing the FED to continue to raise interest rates to slow down inflation. The market expects the US interest rate to It is likely to rise at 5.1% in 2023, causing the market to remain concerned about the recession. pressure on global demand for oil
– China Announcementretail sales numbersNovember 2022 contracted 5.9% YoY, more than the market’s expectation of a 4.0% YoY contraction. 65 rose only 2.2% YoY, less than the previous month’s 5.0% YoY due to the situation of the spread of the COVID-19 virus in China, where China has taken strict measures to contain the spread in the past. Affecting economic activities in the country, however, China has begun to relax measures to control COVID-19. In more areas, the market expects the economy and demand for oil in the country to improve.
– market worriescrude oil supplyTightening after Keystone crude oil pipeline from Canada to US Started back to work again From ceasing operations since December 7, 2022 due to a crude oil spill of more than 14,000 barrels, this is the largest crude oil spill in the US in a decade.
– The market continues to keep an eye on Russian oil exports. After Europe announced measures to limit the price of Russian crude oil at $ 60 per barrel since December 5, 2022, it will cease to provide transportation and ship insurance services for Russian crude oil if the ceiling conditions are not met. price, however ESPO Crude Oil Russian exports to China continued to trade above the ceiling, whileUrals grade crude oil It traded at around $41.60 per barrel. which is still lower than the price ceiling set by Europe
– The economy to watch this week is the number. GDP Q3/65 The market expected growth at 2.9% QoQ, recovering from the previous quarter’s decline of -0.6% QoQ and the European Consumer Confidence Index in December. 65
Summary of oil price situation in the past week (12 Dec. – 16 Dec. ’22)
West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.12 to $74.09 a barrel last week, while Brent rose $1.05 to $79.04 a barrel. Dubai crude averaged $76.54 a barrel after the Keystone crude oil spill. Causing to stop operations in the past Causing the market to worry about tight crude supply, while the FED decided to raise interest rates at 0.5% in the meeting on 13-14 Dec. ’22, which was as expected by the market. United States For the week ended Dec. 9, 2022, U.S. stocks rose 10.2 million barrels, defying analysts’ expectations for a drop of 3.6 million barrels.