The Grand Barometer conducted a poll to determine the voting intentions of Belgians. The poll results reveal that the Flemish nationalists would be a little more numerous in the Chamber, with a total of 44 deputies, representing an increase of 6 elected compared to the last elections in 2019. The Vlaams Belang would have 24 deputies and would be the best represented party in the hemicycle. Meanwhile, the N-VA would retain 20 of the 25 seats it currently holds. Among the majority parties, only the Socialists would benefit from their presence in government, with an increase of 5 elected for the Flemish Socialists and 1 for the French-speaking Socialists. However, there would be several losers within the Vivaldi coalition, including the Open VLD (Flemish Liberals), who would lose 4 seats, and the Greens, who would lose 3 seats each for Ecolo and Groen. The CD&V (Flemish Christian Democrats) would also have 2 fewer elected members.
The poll also revealed that trust in the federal government is at an all-time low, with only 31% of Belgians placing their trust in the government. This pattern of mistrust is also reflected in other governments in the country. The Flemish government is only trusted by 33% of respondents, the Brussels government is trusted by 39% of respondents, and 31% of Walloons surveyed have confidence in the Di Rupo team. The polling period ended before the announcement of the budget adjustment by the Vivaldi majority. The survey was carried out among 2,600 respondents (600 in Brussels, 1,000 in Wallonia, and 1,000 in Flanders), representative of Belgians aged 18 and over. The maximum margin of error is around 3.1% in Flanders and Wallonia and 4% in Brussels.
The Grand Barometer RTL info/Ipsos/Le Soir/VTM/Het Laatste Nieuws polled Belgians on their voting intentions (poll details at the bottom of the article). Find out this Saturday how the political parties would be represented in the House if we voted again tomorrow for the federal elections.
Flemish nationalists would win a seat
First lesson: Flemish nationalists would be a little more numerous in the Chamber. They would total 44 deputies against 43 currently. The Vlaams Belang would have 24 deputies (+6 elected compared to the last elections in 2019), and would be the best represented party in the hemicycle. The N-VA would retain 20 of the 25 seats it currently holds.
Consequences for the parties of the federal majority
Among the majority parties, the Socialists would be the only parties to benefit from their presence in government (+ 5 elected for the Flemish Socialists, + 1 for the French-speaking Socialists). The MR would retain its current group, 14 parliamentarians.
However, there would be several losers within the Vivaldi.
- The Open VLD (Flemish Liberals), the Prime Minister’s party: -4 seats
- Greens: -3 for Ecolo and -3 for Groen.
- The CD&V (Flemish Christian Democrats): 2 elected members less.
Last lesson: there would be 18 elected members of the radical left in the chamber (+6), five “Engaged” (ex-CDH) and two elected “Challenge” (ex-FDF).
Trust in the federal government never so low
The Great Barometer again reveals that 31% of Belgians place their trust in the federal government. 43% trust the Prime Minister, Alexander De Croo. If these figures are only slightly down, it is the worst score obtained since the installation of the government two and a half years ago. It should be noted that the polling period ended before the announcement of the budget adjustment by the Vivaldi majority.
That said, this pattern of mistrust is not unique to the federal government. In fact, every government in the country is dropping in confidence or equaling their worst score since being enthroned.
- The Flemish government is only trusted by 33% of respondents
- The Brussels government is trusted by 39% of respondents.
- 31% of Walloons surveyed have confidence in the Di Rupo team.
- 28% trust the Jeholet majority in the Wallonia-Brussels Federation.
Survey Terms
- 2,600 respondents (600 in Brussels, 1,000 in Wallonia and 1,000 in Flanders)
- Representative sample among Belgians aged 18 and over.
- Survey conducted March 20-27, 2023.
- The interviews took place online.
- The maximum margin of error, for a percentage of 50% and a confidence rate of 95%, is around 3.1% in Flanders and Wallonia; 4% in Brussels.
In conclusion, the results of the Great Barometer reveal some interesting insights into the current political climate in Belgium. The Flemish nationalists would gain a slightly larger representation in the Chamber, with the Vlaams Belang being the best represented party. Meanwhile, several parties within the federal majority would lose seats. Additionally, the survey found that trust in the federal government is at an all-time low, with mistrust extending to governments at all levels across the country. It remains to be seen how these findings will impact future elections and the political landscape in Belgium.