2023-05-15 18:50:00
at 15:44 parallel currency increases to $481 for sale and $474 for the purchase, increasing $7 pesos against the opening price of the first round of the week, the day they entered into full force the new measures of the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa.
For his part, the financiers also adjust a rise. While the cash with liquidation operates in the range of $445.64 for purchase and $442,64 pfor sale and the MEP dollar at $438.23 for the purchase and $438.97 for the sale.
14 hours
In line with what was expected by analysts, the Dolar blue it remains relatively calm and rises $5 in the exchange wheel of this Monday, May 15. LThe North American currency closed on Friday at $471 for sale and after noon it is trading at $476. However, the big question is how long will the tense calm last?
Euro blue today: minute by minute of the price of this Monday, May 15, 2023
El 8.4% inflation April shook the Palace of Finance and led it to take measures “urgents” to stop lto price escalation and avoid another jump in the exchange rate to add pressure to the current presidential management that, It already accumulates an inflation of 448%.
In any case, some analysts consulted by PROFILE They already anticipate that the decisions taken “are not consistent and would not prevent inflation from continuing its upward trend”although the goal of Sergio Massaholder of said portfolio, is to avoid a run against the peso.
This Monday, May 15, the Dolar blue trades in $476 for sale and $470 for purchase; the dollar MEPintervened by the Government, trades at $436.54 for the purchase and $437.48 for sale; he CCL $443.39 and $443.91 for sale.
Blue dollar today: minute by minute of the price of this Monday, May 15, 2023
For his part, and according to the blackboard of the National Bankthe official dollar is trading at $228.5 for the purchase and $238.5 for sale.
What happened in March after the 7.7% in March is what the Government seeks to avoid: a race that puts more fire into the inflationary dynamics and that ended up expanding the exchange rate gapa, for which the Central Bank opted for apply the third interest rate hike in less than a month.
The interest rate for fixed terms increased to a 154% annual effectivewhich represents the highest rate in the last 20 years.
an artificial summer
“With a higher rate, more restrictions and interventions we could see some calm in the rates ofand change, but it would be forced and transitory. This package of measures does not attack any of the underlying problems and we will have to see how the market responds, but surely sooner rather than later we will have pressure on the different TCs again,” he said. Andres Reschinianalyst at F2 Financial Solutions, in statements to PROFILE.
How long will the market be able to intervene?
“Regarding intervening more forcefully to control the price of financial dollars, you have a bankrupt Central Bank, without dollars. So it doesn’t have much firepower to do it either.either. And the problem continues to be the peso, not the dollar that today serves as a hedge. And for that, a tax reduction policy would have to be announced. Since the main problem is the fiscal deficit that forces the BCRA to issue to finance that deficit”pointed out for her part the economist Natalia Butterfly to this medium.
Crawling peg and financial dollars
“in what they are financial exchange rates It is logical to think that the financiers are going to be moving a bit after the bad inflation data for April, however; I don’t see that they are going to change their trend muchit may be that this Monday we will have a day with some volatility”, commented Salvador VitelliHead of Research en Romano Group.
The increases in food consolidate a floor of 10% per month
“Maybe we’ll see a Central Bank buying foreign currency in the Single and Free Exchange Market (MULC) due to the regulatory change that occurred on Friday that makes the payment of imports suspended for 48 hours, so he ends up buying, andn Friday he bought a relatively large pile compared to what they had been buying before. I estimate that this Monday will be similarr”, added the economist.
And the crawling peg?
“It is a bad measure because delaying the exchange rate; does not generate any type of incentive for liquidation despite of all discursive schemess that offer a differential exchange rate. Virtually, a type of doubling was entered into, so continuing to delay the official exchange rate means that there will be no forceful liquidations if a differential exchange rate is not offered,” he asserted.
“I do not see it as a good measure that augurs strong results, at least for the macroeconomy and the situation of critical reserves that the BCRA has. It could be good in another type of context, but in the current one, it does not look like a measure that is going to solve the underlying problems but rather to aggravate its”, concluded Vitelli.
LR
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