Yousef Al Bustanji (Abu Dhabi)
The Central Bank of the Emirates raised its real GDP growth forecast for the UAE to 5.4% in 2022 compared to its previous forecast of 4.2% for the same year, after the national economy achieved a qualitative leap in growth, estimated at 8.2% during the first quarter of this year. According to the quarterly economic report issued by the bank yesterday. The Central Bank indicated that raising the expected growth rates came as a result of the sharp increase in oil production, in addition to the strong growth in real non-oil GDP. The “Central” also strongly raised its expectations for the real GDP growth of the UAE for the next year 2023 to reach 4.2% instead of 3.3% that the bank had expected in its previous report, supported by the growth of non-oil GDP by 3.9% and the growth of oil GDP by about % 5 in 2023.
According to data issued by the bank, the real oil GDP will achieve a jump in growth during 2022 of up to 8%, and the non-oil GDP will grow by 4.3%, which is an important indicator that the UAE national economy will enter a new strong recovery phase as of From the first quarter of this year.
The report shows that the oil GDP in the first quarter of 2022 increased by 13% on an annual basis, while estimates show that the non-oil GDP rose by 6.1% during the same quarter.
The Central Bank stated that the average oil production of the UAE amounted to 2.95 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2022, in line with the OPEC + agreements.
As for the non-oil economic sector, it grew strongly, benefiting from the removal of many restrictions related to “Covid 19” and with the support of the recovery of global travel and tourism activity, as the UAE continued to play a leading global role in containing the spread of the virus.
The report shows an increase in the number of employees in the country by 8.1%, while wages increased by 4.9% during the first quarter of 2022, on an annual basis, which boosted the recovery of domestic consumption, which reached its highest level in 10 years.
In addition, credit, that is, loans and banking facilities granted to the private sector, increased by 2.5% during the same period.
According to the Central Bank, the federal government’s revenues (representing 14.4% of the total collected government revenues) increased in the last quarter of 2021 due to the recovery of oil production and growth in non-oil economic activity. Supported by higher oil and gas prices and an expected increase in production, 2022 is set to bring in higher revenues.
The data included in the report indicates significant growth in the various sectors that make up the real GDP, which includes 17 sectors, at the forefront of which comes the wholesale and retail trade, manufacturing, building and construction, real estate, financial and communications activities, tourism and hospitality, and others.
real estate sector
The report shows a remarkable growth in the real estate sector, as the average real estate prices in Abu Dhabi increased by 1.5%, and the average prices in Dubai increased by 11.3%.
The total volume of sales in the residential real estate market in Dubai increased by 83.4%, in the first quarter of 2022, on an annual basis, and sales of properties that have not yet started construction (off-plan sales) increased by 94.6%, while sales in the secondary market increased by 76.1% .
Transport
The report shows that Abu Dhabi International Airport received 2.6 million passengers during the first quarter of 2022, an increase of 218% year on year, and the number of flights increased by 38.8%, and Dubai International Airport continued to be the busiest airport in the world in terms of the number of international passengers, as it received 13.6 million passengers in the first quarter of this year.
Tourism and Hospitality
The average occupancy in the first quarter of this year was 82%, compared to 64% in the first quarter of 2021.
The number of international guests arriving in Dubai more than tripled in one year, reaching 3.97 million in the first quarter of 2022 compared to 1.27 million in the corresponding quarter of 2021.
The average revenue per available rooms more than doubled to 534 dirhams in the first quarter of 2022, compared to 251 dirhams in the first quarter of 2021.
Abu Dhabi hotels also recorded a noticeable increase in hotel room occupancy, during the same comparison period.
Telecommunications
The number of Etisalat subscribers for both operators “Etisalat” and “du” in the first quarter of 2022 increased by 5.6% and 10.4%, respectively.
foreign trade
Total non-oil exports increased on an annual basis by 17.3% to reach 88 billion dirhams in the first quarter of 2022, while re-exports increased by 20.4% to reach 130.5 billion dirhams, and imports increased by 21.7% to reach 281.2 billion dirhams, in response to the economic recovery movement in Local market.
Consumer prices
The consumer price index (inflation) increased by 3.4% during the first quarter of 2022, compared to 0.6% and 2.3% in the previous two quarters; That is, the third and fourth of 2021, and the most prominent increase in consumer prices was in the transportation services sector by 22% on an annual basis, as a result of the increase in the prices of fuel, oils and cars.
The Central Bank of the Emirates expected that the overall inflation rate in 2022 in the UAE will reach about 5.6%, mainly due to the rise in fuel prices and the increase in the prices of food-related items in the global market, and this is expected to lead to an increase in demand in the local market that leads to a rise In wages and rents, indicating that the dirham’s link to the dollar will contribute to limiting the effects of imported inflation as a result of the rise in the price of the dirham against other currencies.