(Original title: The cyclical sector is weak, the Shanghai index fell nearly 5% and fell below 3,100 points after the broader market plummeted or is now oversold and rebounded)
On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and moved lower, fell sharply during the session, and accelerated in the late session. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell nearly 5% and fell below 3,100 points, hitting a new low for the year; the Shenzhen Component Index also fell sharply in the afternoon, with a drop Over 4%; the ChiNext rose by more than 1% in early trading, and fell by more than 2.5% in the afternoon, approaching 2,500 points; the transaction volume of the two markets has increased, breaking through trillion yuan again, and the northbound funds have experienced a substantial net outflow. 16 billion yuan. Market participants believe that the short-term stock index adjustment has come to an end, and as the Fed raises interest rates this week, the operation can be relatively optimistic. For the annual report and a quarterly report growth than expected stocks can continue to participate in the rebound. In terms of thematic investment, you can focus on concepts such as new crown detection and digital economy.
Poor short-term market sentiment
On Tuesday, affected by the changes in the external market and the epidemic situation overnight, the three major A-share stock indexes opened lower and moved lower. After entering the continuous auction trading, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fell rapidly. Continued to hit new lows for the year. The activity of semiconductors and the strength of the heavyweight stocks on the ChiNext made the ChiNext Index and the Shenzhen Component Index turn red one after another. In the afternoon, the diving of pharmaceutical stocks and real estate stocks caused the two cities to return to the decline, and the Shanghai index fell directly below the 3,100-point mark, hitting a new low since July 2020.
As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.95% to 3,063.97 points; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 4.36% to 11,537.24 points; the ChiNext Index fell 2.55% to 2,504.78 points. 242 companies in the two cities rose, 4,476 companies fell, and 15 companies were flat. The transaction volume between the two cities was 1,124.3 billion yuan, an increase of 154.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day’s 969.9 billion yuan.
For the trend of recent trading days, it is not only affected by the repeated epidemics, but also affected by the recent sharp decline in Hong Kong stocks and Chinese concept stocks, which is also one of the reasons for the poor short-term market sentiment.
Jin Bailing Consulting Qin Hong said that behind the sharp decline in Hong Kong stocks and Chinese concept stocks is the pressure released by the reallocation of international capital. For example, the net outflow of northbound funds exceeded 10 billion yuan on Monday and 16 billion yuan on Tuesday.
Since March, the cumulative net sales of northbound funds has exceeded 64.5 billion yuan, and the previous monthly historical record was 67.87 billion yuan created in March 2020. However, the current net outflow of Beishang funds accounts for a very low proportion of the total market value of A shares. At the same time, northbound funds are mainly concentrated in high-quality blue-chip stocks, which have a certain guiding ability for the pricing of blue-chip stocks. There are also market participants who believe that only 65 billion yuan of northbound funds are sold, and it is impossible to directly collapse a market worth tens of trillions.
Judging from the historical trend, since the market started to perform well in 2019, there have been three plunges with a drop of more than 5 points, one on May 6, 2019, when the United States provoked trade friction, and then on February 3, 2020 , the third time is this Tuesday. This decline often means the end of an adjustment. This was the case for the first two times, and on October 11, 2018, it also fell by more than 5 points, and now it is also the end of the adjustment.
Guo Yiming, director of Jufeng Investment Consulting, believes that the central bank has successively cut RRR and interest rates since December last year to release liquidity, showing that the bottom of the policy has emerged; but the construction of the bottom of the market is more complicated and there is a time lag between the bottom of the policy, so the trend of A-shares has twists and turns.
After the Spring Festival, the value and growth continued one after another, and continued to search for the bottom after the oversold rebound at the end of February came to an end. At present, the construction of the bottom box of A-shares is a good opportunity to sell high and buy low, especially when there is a mid-level adjustment in the market, but there is no liquidity risk. Expected individual stocks can continue to participate.
The concept of electronic ID card is active against the market
On the disk, the indices of coal, oil, and steel sectors fell by more than 7%, the indices of power, logistics, gas, nonferrous metals, and real estate sectors fell by more than 6%, and sectors such as insurance, winemaking, automobiles, agriculture, and medicine all fell; electronic ID cards The concept is active against the market, with Yuanfang Information, Xiongdi Technology, Nanwei Software, Infineon, and Jinglun Electronics, etc. daily limit or more than 10%. Power equipment opened low and moved high, and the Taiwan Strait nuclear power daily limit. The coal sector led the decline in the two cities, and Pingmei shares fell by the limit. Real estate plunged in the afternoon, and nearly 10 stocks including Poly Development fell by the limit.
The market experienced heavy volume and downward killing, with the turnover exceeding one trillion yuan and exceeding the previous trading day’s turnover. The Shanghai Stock Exchange hit a new short-term low and closed at the lowest point. Guotai Junan believes that the market panic is obviously outflowing, and the short-term market sentiment is poor. The epidemic is still repeated in many parts of the country, and the new cases in some areas have not yet reached an inflection point. In the early morning of this Thursday, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce the results of the March interest rate meeting, whether it will raise interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled or have other surprises. The changes will significantly affect the market structure. Until the boots hit the ground, it’s hard for the market to pick up significantly.
Therefore, it is recommended in operation to control positions and be patient. You can “ly on the ground” and wait for a rebound, and wait for the market sentiment to gradually recover. From a medium-to-long-term perspective, some stocks with low valuations and high dividends are still in a cost-effective allocation range, and you can continue to pay attention to bargains. In terms of thematic investment, you can pay attention to new crown detection, digital economy, etc.
Fan Jituo, chief strategy analyst of Cinda Securities, believes that strategically, 2022 will be a compressed version of 2018-2019, the first half of the year will be similar to 2018, and the second half of the year will be similar to 2019. The adjustment speed since the beginning of the year has reached the quarterly adjustment speed in 2018. Compared with 2018, there were four rebounds during the period, and the duration was mostly 3-4 weeks. Three were accompanied by important meetings. The quarterly report is an important performance verification period and a time window for revising expectations and valuation matching. The market rebounded to a certain extent before and after the disclosure period of the three quarterly reports in 2018.
We believe that the core time window for the next rebound is from late March to April, because the first quarterly report was disclosed in April. A complete reversal needs to see one of the following three changes, namely, crude oil has weakened for more than a quarter, real estate sales have stabilized and improved, and valuations have reached extreme values, which are currently not available.
It is not advisable to blindly sell after the crash
Shortly after the market opened in the afternoon of March 15, a group of funds such as Tongce Medical experienced a cliff dive, which was the main short-selling force that dragged the market down below 3,100 points. In the three months from mid-December last year to the present, the Shanghai Composite Index fell from 3,700 points to 3,100 points, a drop of as much as 20%, of which nearly half of the decline was completed in the past seven trading days. As the short-term trend of the broader market has weakened significantly, many investors are now extremely worried about the prospects of the A-share market. These factors include the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the domestic epidemic and economic growth pressures.
In this regard, Jingyang Investment believes that although the A-share market has recently suffered continuous sharp declines due to internal and external factors, the overall impact of these factors on the market is limited.
One is the issue of imported inflation after the price increase of resources. In fact, the National Development and Reform Commission has already given the answer: “Because the proportion of crude oil and natural gas in China is relatively high, it will definitely be affected, and the cost of imports will increase objectively, but Overall, the impact is manageable.”
The second is foreign trade. Last year, my country’s total import and export trade was about 6 trillion US dollars, of which Russia and Ukraine combined less than 170 billion US dollars, accounting for only 3%. So obviously, the direct impact of this “black swan” on our country is not too great. As for the impact of the epidemic on the A-share market, even in 2020, the epidemic only caused a short-term impact on the A-share market at the beginning of the year. The broader market fell from 3,100 points to 2,600 points, a drop of about 20%. When the domestic epidemic showed signs of turning point in March 2020, the broader market began to stop falling and turn upward, rising from 2,600 points to 3,400 points within half a year, an increase of 30%. In terms of economic growth pressure, the macro level has not only given goals, but also set nine aspects of work arrangements to strive to complete the annual goals and tasks.
Judging from the completion of tasks over the years, there are only very few cases in which the actual economic growth of the year did not achieve the target at the beginning of the year, and in most other cases it was exceeded. It is believed that specific measures to “stabilize growth” will be introduced one after another in the later period.
Reporter Huang Du