"The Economist Magazine predicts Donald Trump's return to the White House in upcoming US elections despite criminal charges"

2023-05-28 18:06:08

Former US President Donald Trump

Trump

Despite all the cases and convictions against him, the former US president has a real chance of winning the upcoming presidential elections

Washington – Bandar Al Doshi

Published in: May 28, 2023: 09:04 PM GST
Last updated: May 28, 2023: 10:06 PM GST

In a lengthy analysis of the 2024 US elections and the candidates’ chances of reaching the White House, “The Economist” magazine predicted in its editorial that former US President Donald Trump would win the presidency again. The magazine enumerated the factors that might help him defeat the current President, Joe Biden, despite all the criminal cases he faces.

The magazine said, “Political parties do not usually stick to losers, as Trump led Republicans to defeats in the 2018 midterm elections and the 2020 presidential elections. After he encouraged his supporters to “stop theft,” some of them stormed Congress, resulting in the death of a police officer with a stroke. “And then he became a convicted sex offender, too. But is the GOP really going to nominate him again? And the answer is probably yes.”

From the storming of a number of Trump supporters to the Congressional Building in 2021

She stated that “in 2016 and 2002, it made sense to think of Trump’s movement as a hostile takeover of the party. But in 2023 it is no longer so, as Trump is the frontrunner, because a large percentage of Republicans really like him. And his supporters have got their hands on the committee.” The Republican National Party has been in power for six years now, and more than half of the Republican members of the House of Representatives were elected for the first time since 2016, meaning under Trump’s banner, as most of the Republicans in the House and Senate who refused to make peace with him resigned or retired. The 10 House of Representatives who voted to impeach Trump in January 2021, there are still only two left. And she continued, “The Trump campaign is also better organized than it was in 2016 or 2020.”

The magazine’s analysis of the primaries shows how difficult it will be to defeat Trump, as he has a huge lead over his rivals, and YouGov polls conducted by The Economist indicate that voters in the Republican primary favor Trump over Ron DeSantis by 33 percentage points. He also has a huge lead in endorsements from Republicans-elect, which is usually a good sign.

And in 2016, the last time Trump ran in a primary, he won early primary elections with much less support than he has now. Yet there are still Republican voters who would like an alternative, as Trump’s 58% share in the poll means that nearly half of primary voters are open to choosing someone else.

It is estimated that the difficulties in coordinating the opposition to Trump are significant. And people close to the Trump campaign say privately that the more candidates who enter the primaries the better for their candidate.

On the other hand, the report indicated that the way the primaries calendar intersects with court hearings to consider legal cases against Trump is a nightmare.

Trump appeared in New York court last April

His trial for falsifying records will begin in New York shortly after Super Tuesday, when more than a dozen states vote. Neither this case nor any of the other investigations he likely faces will be resolved by the time the primaries are over.

According to The Economist, “Some might think that at this point, voters will abandon Trump in droves. But when, earlier this year, a jury found that he sexually assaulted a woman 30 years ago, the verdict had no appreciable effect on him.” his poll numbers. And the newspaper continued, “It turns out that Trump is adept at convincing Republican voters that he is the real victim.”

On the other hand, the report stated that Biden has “some underappreciated strengths, but if the country enters a recession, Trump’s chances will rise.”

“All of this means that everyone should take seriously the possibility that America’s next president will be someone who divides the West, who pleases Vladimir Putin, and accepts the election results only if he wins,” the report said.