The end of the La Niña extreme weather phenomenon is predicted for 2023
AGDAILY Reporters*
Image : NOAA
It’s time to say goodbye to La Niña. After three years of increased hurricane activity in the Atlantic, wildfires and droughts in the West, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicates that La Niña is over and neutral ENSO conditions are expected to continue through the spring and early summer of 2023 in the Northern Hemisphere.
But what farmers probably want to know is whether El Niño will develop — which tends to be associated with wetter weather in the southern and western United States. Many computerized climate models predict a transition to El Niño later this year, with a 60% chance by fall. However, the current period is very delicate for models, due to the ” spring predictability barrier ».
According to the Climate Prediction Center of National Weather Servicethere have never been more than four consecutive years without an El Niño.
The El Niño and La Niña phenomena result from interactions between the ocean surface and the atmosphere in the tropical Pacific. In Spanish, ” The girl means ” the girl “. Its name is a direct response to the expression ” The boy which means ” the little boy », Spanish diminutive often used to designate the Child Jesus.
According to the International Research Institute for Climate and Society Columbia Climate Schoolthe two weather phenomena generally develop from April to June and reach their maximum intensity from October to February.
La Niña is historically linked to more damaging and costly weather, which is not very favorable to American agriculture. According to the US Department of Agriculture, yields per hectare of corn and winter wheat tend to increase after El Niño growing seasons, and decrease after La Niña growing seasons.
« If the globe goes into El Niño, it means more rain for the corn belt in the Midwest and cereals in general, which could be beneficial said Mr. Michael Ferrari, scientific director of Climate Alphaat theAssociated Press.
In the past three years of La Niña, the United States has experienced 14 hurricanes and tropical storms with damage worth $252 billion.
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* Source : La Niña’s extreme weather pattern predicted to end in 2023 | AGDAILY